{
 "question": "the same news → less dispute? (closed − open on the same models and day)",
 "rules": "cb-1",
 "formulas": {
  "heat": "100 × the mean over the markets of the split of the day actions (the page's “heat”, council_answers.split3)",
  "n_eff": "n / (1 + (n − 1)·ρ̄), ρ̄ the mean pairwise correlation of prob_up over the 12 markets (includes how the markets move together: SPX/NDX/DJI, WTI/BRENT); capped at n",
  "spread": "the mean over pairs of half the sum of |Δweight| with the cash (accepted trades only)",
  "brier": "from 2026-10-22, per scored session: the mean of (p/100 − outcome)² over the COMMON cells (the same seat, market and day, the open's shared reference price; draws left out), closed minus open; below zero = the Closed Book was closer. summary: the mean over sessions with a 95% Student-t interval over the sessions (a session is the unit; cells inside a day are correlated); `brier_all_rows` counts a draw by its sign"
 },
 "runs": [
  {
   "run_id": "2026-10-20-am",
   "seats": [
    "chatgpt",
    "claude",
    "deepseek",
    "gemini",
    "stepfun",
    "wenxin"
   ],
   "n": 6,
   "n_calls": 6,
   "heat_open": 28,
   "heat_closed": 24,
   "heat_published": 24,
   "n_eff_open": 1.63,
   "n_eff_closed": 1.28,
   "rho_open": 0.536,
   "rho_closed": 0.735,
   "spread_open": 0.6,
   "spread_closed": 0.55,
   "n_portfolios": 2,
   "outside": {},
   "packet_sha256": "3fd8409a6ba39852d79c6759cf232a7049649e2e66ed76cf640eb47c3659ef45",
   "open_asked_at": "2026-10-20T12:30:08Z",
   "closed_asked_at": "2026-10-20T14:29:09Z",
   "lag_min": 119,
   "closed_after_open": true,
   "search": {
    "chatgpt": "off (verified)",
    "claude": "off (verified)",
    "deepseek": "off (toggle clicked, state read)",
    "gemini": "not guaranteed (told in words)",
    "stepfun": "off (toggle clicked, state read)",
    "wenxin": "not guaranteed (told in words)"
   }
  },
  {
   "run_id": "2026-10-21-am",
   "seats": [
    "claude",
    "deepseek",
    "gemini",
    "meta",
    "stepfun",
    "zai"
   ],
   "n": 6,
   "n_calls": 6,
   "heat_open": 28,
   "heat_closed": 31,
   "heat_published": 30,
   "n_eff_open": 1.99,
   "n_eff_closed": 1.29,
   "rho_open": 0.404,
   "rho_closed": 0.729,
   "spread_open": null,
   "spread_closed": null,
   "n_portfolios": 0,
   "outside": {
    "gemini": 1
   },
   "packet_sha256": "44942b3db200d98bcf316770fb729dd58134ea6c8ded3ea05d7d94d732c510c4",
   "open_asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:30:09Z",
   "closed_asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:47:33Z",
   "lag_min": 137,
   "closed_after_open": true,
   "search": {
    "claude": "off (verified)",
    "deepseek": "off (toggle clicked, state read)",
    "gemini": "not guaranteed (told in words)",
    "meta": "not guaranteed (told in words)",
    "stepfun": "off (toggle clicked, state read)",
    "zai": "not guaranteed (told in words)"
   }
  }
 ],
 "summary": {
  "heat": {
   "closed_minus_open": -0.5,
   "runs": 2
  },
  "n_eff": {
   "closed_minus_open": -0.525,
   "runs": 2
  },
  "rho": {
   "closed_minus_open": 0.262,
   "runs": 2
  },
  "spread": {
   "closed_minus_open": -0.05,
   "runs": 1
  },
  "brier": {
   "mean": null,
   "lo": null,
   "hi": null,
   "sessions": 0,
   "cells": 0,
   "closed_minus_open": null,
   "lag_min_mean": null,
   "sessions_after_open": 0,
   "sessions_waiting": 0,
   "why_after_open": "sessions where every seat was asked after the open are not in the interval"
  },
  "brier_all_rows": {
   "mean": null,
   "lo": null,
   "hi": null,
   "sessions": 0,
   "cells": 0,
   "closed_minus_open": null,
   "lag_min_mean": null,
   "sessions_after_open": 0,
   "sessions_waiting": 0,
   "why_after_open": "sessions where every seat was asked after the open are not in the interval"
  }
 }
}