{
 "computations": [
  {
   "id": "brier_seat_no_draws",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the old seat Brier: stated forecasts other than 50, draws out"
  },
  {
   "id": "brier_all_rows",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the main Brier from 2026-10-21: every row, draws and stated 50 included"
  },
  {
   "id": "league_brier",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the league Brier: stated 50 and gaps read as 50 in, each run rounded"
  },
  {
   "id": "method_segments",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the old Brier by methodology version"
  },
  {
   "id": "consensus_brier_by_horizon",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the Brier of the mean of the seats' probabilities of one event"
  },
  {
   "id": "cells",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "asked / elicited / explicit 50 / imputed 50 / miss / invalid and the cell Briers per seat and horizon"
  },
  {
   "id": "calibration_bins",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "council-calibration.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the ten bins of the stated chance and the skill against the coin"
  },
  {
   "id": "consensus_cw",
   "inputs": [
    "council-book.jsonl"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the Council's own consensus cw (Poly mean: extremes dropped from 5 answers, held 2-98) per asset and session"
  },
  {
   "id": "draw_band",
   "inputs": [
    "council-book.jsonl",
    "council-forecasts.csv"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the draw flag against the band of the score line (|move| < band is a draw)"
  },
  {
   "id": "climatology_fixed",
   "inputs": [
    "council-clim-window.json",
    "council-calibration.json",
    "council-forecasts.csv"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "the fixed 2016-2025 climatology as the reference of the seat BSS"
  },
  {
   "id": "event_contract",
   "inputs": [
    "council-forecasts.csv",
    "event-contract.schema.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": true,
   "what": "event_id (ev1) and event_id_v2 (ev2) against the contract of the row"
  },
  {
   "id": "bootstrap_intervals",
   "inputs": [
    "council-calibration.json",
    "council-stats.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": false,
   "what": "the session-cluster bootstrap intervals (random draws from a fixed seed)"
  },
  {
   "id": "score_h_pooling",
   "inputs": [
    "council-book.jsonl"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": false,
   "what": "the pooling of the longer horizons (1w, 1m, 6m)"
  },
  {
   "id": "crowd_baselines",
   "inputs": [
    "council-pairs.csv",
    "council-calibration.json"
   ],
   "recounted_by_replay_brier": false,
   "what": "Polymarket / Kalshi baselines and the pairs"
  }
 ],
 "computations_sha256": "93b2e3aefd70845322eb2cc765ed10ffb6c0bd86702bc21602837720de315c3d",
 "dates": [
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [],
   "counted_rows": 167,
   "event_ids_sha256": "d0fedac8b78d894ce258b74118b20bd5916bda57a567f75b6beb241c52f058b2",
   "events_counted": 24,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m1"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6 · Extra High",
     "GPT-6 · High",
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · Extra High",
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · xhigh"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · max"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · DeepThink"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 4 Argon · High"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · Expert"
    ],
    "kimi": [
     "Kimi K3 · High",
     "Kimi K3 · K3 (max of the account)"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · Reasoning"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro",
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · MiMo-V2.6-Pro"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview · High"
    ],
    "wenxin": [
     "ERNIE · as is"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [],
   "rows": 2928,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-16-eve",
    "2026-10-17-btc",
    "2026-10-18-radar",
    "2026-10-19-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-19"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [],
   "counted_rows": 210,
   "event_ids_sha256": "36835ca3b88d9ffc0caffa360fbb1f6703e0677aa1b935bb663590a99e752b09",
   "events_counted": 42,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m2"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · xhigh"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · max"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · DeepThink + search"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 4 Argon · High"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · Expert"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview · High"
    ],
    "wenxin": [
     "ERNIE · as is"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [],
   "rows": 432,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-20-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-20"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [],
   "counted_rows": 108,
   "event_ids_sha256": "546f6cbe0bb01f54e08bdc0d1150ec9d5ee3faf81fc4048b2ce637a7eef3c924",
   "events_counted": 13,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m3"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · reasoning.effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · thinking: enabled · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 4 Argon · thinking_level: high · Google Search grounding"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · reasoning_effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · reasoning: on · search grounding"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "zai": [
     "GLM-5.3 · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [],
   "rows": 432,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-21-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-21"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [
    "a1"
   ],
   "counted_rows": 108,
   "event_ids_sha256": "fbd1f6d836a7a70b3581d24e3399943fd3314a19c7c31aceaf06be43d20ba7c1",
   "events_counted": 13,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m4"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · reasoning.effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · thinking: enabled · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 3.8 Flash · thinking_level: high · Google Search grounding"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · reasoning_effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · reasoning: on · search grounding"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "zai": [
     "GLM-5.3-Flash · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [
    "r2",
    "r3"
   ],
   "rows": 432,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-22-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-22"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [
    "a1"
   ],
   "counted_rows": 96,
   "event_ids_sha256": "b170ee9eaf77ba0a2fb101b98e5f50402f3d6c89723f23ea137f3b55c75c1301",
   "events_counted": 13,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m4"
   ],
   "models": {
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · thinking: enabled · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · reasoning_effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "kimi": [
     "Kimi K3 · Fast"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · reasoning: on · search grounding"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ],
    "nemotron": [
     "Nemotron 3 Ultra · enable_thinking: true · effort: high"
    ],
    "zai": [
     "GLM-5.3-Flash · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [
    "r2",
    "r3"
   ],
   "rows": 384,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-23-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-23"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [
    "a1"
   ],
   "counted_rows": 120,
   "event_ids_sha256": "c51744ab9f7dbd3cf2164b6428a913e2d2532b047df76702167dacdff6860430",
   "events_counted": 13,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m4"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · reasoning.effort: max · web search",
     "GPT-6.1 Sol · reasoning.effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1 · thinking: enabled · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 4 Argon · thinking_level: high · Google Search grounding"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · reasoning_effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "kimi": [
     "Kimi K3 · K2.8",
     "Kimi K3 · reasoning_effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3",
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · reasoning: on · search grounding"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ],
    "nemotron": [
     "Nemotron 3 Ultra · enable_thinking: true · effort: high"
    ],
    "qwen": [
     "Qwen3.8-Max · Max + search"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview · reasoning_effort: high · web search"
    ],
    "zai": [
     "GLM-5.3 · thinking: enabled · web search",
     "GLM-5.3-Flash · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [
    "r2",
    "r3"
   ],
   "rows": 1440,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-24-btc",
    "2026-10-25-radar",
    "2026-10-26-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-26"
  },
  {
   "aggregation_versions": [
    "a1"
   ],
   "counted_rows": 108,
   "event_ids_sha256": "90d0c752e2beae11a895111fb5c53c1abb0eb765aac5d1e15c1df00de7f3154d",
   "events_counted": 24,
   "methodology_versions": [
    "m4"
   ],
   "models": {
    "chatgpt": [
     "GPT-6.1 Sol"
    ],
    "claude": [
     "Claude Opus 5.5 · effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "deepseek": [
     "DeepSeek V4.1"
    ],
    "gemini": [
     "Gemini 4 Argon · thinking_level: high · Google Search grounding"
    ],
    "grok": [
     "Grok 4.7 · reasoning_effort: xhigh · web search"
    ],
    "kimi": [
     "Kimi K3 · reasoning_effort: max · web search"
    ],
    "meta": [
     "Muse Spark 1.3 · reasoning: on · search grounding"
    ],
    "mimo": [
     "MiMo-V2.6-Pro · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ],
    "nemotron": [
     "Nemotron 3 Ultra"
    ],
    "nova": [
     "Amazon Nova"
    ],
    "qwen": [
     "Qwen3.8-Max · Max + search"
    ],
    "stepfun": [
     "Step 5 Preview"
    ],
    "zai": [
     "GLM-5.3-Flash · thinking: enabled · web search"
    ]
   },
   "resolver_versions": [
    "r2",
    "r3"
   ],
   "rows": 624,
   "runs": [
    "2026-10-27-am"
   ],
   "session": "2026-10-27"
  }
 ],
 "kit_sha256": "0644809bfbe14021917d2c9bcfaee1d1c68556e56c0806eed4b067b65a2bb66d",
 "kit_version": "k1",
 "versions": {
  "aggregation": "a1",
  "aggregation_sha256": "9c7a26101bfcdf992fba878c4295c3fd93c3eba420c296ce356ba90ef3be128c",
  "contract_ev1": "ev1-4859104ccb5a8012",
  "contract_ev2": "ev2-88260ca1422e0921",
  "methodology": [
   {
    "from": "0000-00-00",
    "version": "m1"
   },
   {
    "from": "2026-10-20",
    "version": "m2"
   },
   {
    "from": "2026-10-21",
    "version": "m3"
   },
   {
    "from": "2026-10-22",
    "version": "m4"
   }
  ],
  "price_provider": "yahoo_finance_chart_v8_1m",
  "reference_rule": "first_1m_bar_at_or_after_reference_at__last_1m_bar_at_or_before_end_at__v1",
  "resolver": "r3",
  "resolver_sha256": "8f082db82f9d28c9866a10daf7b002757b03c147ef0c45ffbced4fa11254f0e1"
 },
 "what": "The fixed set of numbers counted for every session date, the versions they were counted by, and the events counted on each date. A change of the set, of a version or of the events of a date changes kit_sha256 (and the line of that date)."
}