{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-block-test",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:37Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. For each pair of seats, the mean correlation of their probabilities over the markets of the runs they share (timely votes of the counted runs; the n_eff filter on seats and markets). within = mean over pairs inside a group, between = mean over pairs across groups, diff = within - between. p = (k+1)/(draws+1), k = permutations of the seats' group labels (group sizes fixed, 2000 draws, a seed fixed by the horizon and the partition) with diff >= the observed one (one-sided: blocks correlate more inside than across). A partition needs 2+ seats in 2+ groups and 3+ pairs each inside and across. Seats are few, runs share the same markets: the p is a description of this panel, not a claim about all models. Partitions declared in advance are read from engine/council-partitions.json (declared_at); the roster side is the only one built in. The heat map (clustering order, matrix) names seats and so waits for the reveal in a blind or unsure season.",
 "declared_partitions": [
  "laboratory",
  "open_weights"
 ],
 "declared_sha256": "9f893ace9b546951fabccdcb3ca3ec7407d465ec26d3b15f87c0bef59001e790",
 "horizons": {
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   "pairs": 58,
   "mean_rho": 0.462,
   "partitions": {
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     "seats": 12,
     "groups": {
      "CN": 6,
      "US": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 25,
     "pairs_between": 33,
     "within": 0.477,
     "between": 0.45,
     "diff": 0.027,
     "p_permutation": 0.3188,
     "draws": 2000
    },
    "laboratory": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "why_null": "under 2 groups or under 3 pairs inside or across"
    },
    "open_weights": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "seats": 12,
     "groups": {
      "closed": 6,
      "open": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 27,
     "pairs_between": 31,
     "within": 0.45,
     "between": 0.472,
     "diff": -0.022,
     "p_permutation": 0.6582,
     "draws": 2000
    }
   },
   "heatmap": {
    "order": [
     "chatgpt",
     "meta",
     "stepfun",
     "deepseek",
     "grok",
     "wenxin",
     "gemini",
     "kimi",
     "zai",
     "mimo",
     "claude",
     "nemotron"
    ],
    "method": "average linkage on 1 - rho",
    "matrix": [
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  },
  "1w": {
   "seats": 12,
   "pairs": 58,
   "mean_rho": 0.443,
   "partitions": {
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     "groups": {
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      "US": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 25,
     "pairs_between": 33,
     "within": 0.481,
     "between": 0.414,
     "diff": 0.068,
     "p_permutation": 0.1469,
     "draws": 2000
    },
    "laboratory": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "why_null": "under 2 groups or under 3 pairs inside or across"
    },
    "open_weights": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "seats": 12,
     "groups": {
      "closed": 6,
      "open": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 27,
     "pairs_between": 31,
     "within": 0.404,
     "between": 0.477,
     "diff": -0.073,
     "p_permutation": 0.8406,
     "draws": 2000
    }
   },
   "heatmap": {
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     "deepseek",
     "meta",
     "gemini",
     "mimo",
     "wenxin",
     "stepfun",
     "grok",
     "kimi",
     "zai",
     "nemotron",
     "claude"
    ],
    "method": "average linkage on 1 - rho",
    "matrix": [
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  },
  "1m": {
   "seats": 12,
   "pairs": 58,
   "mean_rho": 0.289,
   "partitions": {
    "side": {
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     "groups": {
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      "US": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 25,
     "pairs_between": 33,
     "within": 0.374,
     "between": 0.224,
     "diff": 0.151,
     "p_permutation": 0.042,
     "draws": 2000
    },
    "laboratory": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "why_null": "under 2 groups or under 3 pairs inside or across"
    },
    "open_weights": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "seats": 12,
     "groups": {
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      "open": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 27,
     "pairs_between": 31,
     "within": 0.244,
     "between": 0.327,
     "diff": -0.083,
     "p_permutation": 0.8966,
     "draws": 2000
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   },
   "heatmap": {
    "order": [
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     "deepseek",
     "meta",
     "stepfun",
     "gemini",
     "mimo",
     "kimi",
     "zai",
     "wenxin",
     "claude",
     "grok",
     "nemotron"
    ],
    "method": "average linkage on 1 - rho",
    "matrix": [
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  },
  "6m": {
   "seats": 12,
   "pairs": 58,
   "mean_rho": 0.723,
   "partitions": {
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     "groups": {
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      "US": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 25,
     "pairs_between": 33,
     "within": 0.718,
     "between": 0.727,
     "diff": -0.008,
     "p_permutation": 0.5602,
     "draws": 2000
    },
    "laboratory": {
     "declared_at": "2026-10-22",
     "declared_after_data": true,
     "why_null": "under 2 groups or under 3 pairs inside or across"
    },
    "open_weights": {
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     "declared_after_data": true,
     "seats": 12,
     "groups": {
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      "open": 6
     },
     "pairs_within": 27,
     "pairs_between": 31,
     "within": 0.727,
     "between": 0.72,
     "diff": 0.007,
     "p_permutation": 0.3743,
     "draws": 2000
    }
   },
   "heatmap": {
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     "claude",
     "wenxin",
     "grok",
     "deepseek",
     "zai",
     "meta",
     "mimo",
     "gemini",
     "kimi",
     "nemotron",
     "stepfun"
    ],
    "method": "average linkage on 1 - rho",
    "matrix": [
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 },
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}