{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-calibration-rules",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:38Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. The shift (intercept a) and the slope (b) of the logistic regression of the outcome on logit(p), each with a 95% interval from resampling whole SESSIONS (cluster bootstrap, 400 draws, a fixed seed); the point fit is null from fewer than 30 forecasts or when the fit is not a number; the interval is not computed under 5 sessions. A horizon with no forecasts with an outcome is not listed. A stated probability of 0 or 100 is held at 1 or 99 before the logit; the cell stays in the count. b = 1 and a = 0 is a calibrated forecaster; b < 1 overconfident, b > 1 underconfident. The slope is about the DIRECTION (up or down), not about the SIZE of the move: `direction` is the share of non-50 forecasts on the side of the outcome, `move` is the size of the outcome in percent of the level. Pooled = every model's forecast is a row; council = the mean of the models in a cell. Nothing is fitted into a score.",
 "rules": {
  "p_clip_percent": [
   1,
   99
  ],
  "min_n": 30,
  "min_sessions": 5,
  "complete_separation_abs_b": 20.0,
  "interval": {
   "level": 0.95,
   "method": "cluster bootstrap over sessions",
   "draws": 400,
   "seed": 20261022
  }
 },
 "seats_named": false,
 "horizons": {
  "1d": {
   "models_pooled": {
    "n": 376,
    "sessions": 4,
    "p_held_at_clip": 0,
    "slope": 0.391,
    "slope_ci95": null,
    "shift": 0.153,
    "shift_ci95": null,
    "why_null": "interval: not computed"
   },
   "council": {
    "n": 46,
    "sessions": 4,
    "p_held_at_clip": 0,
    "slope": 0.3,
    "slope_ci95": null,
    "shift": 0.169,
    "shift_ci95": null,
    "why_null": "interval: not computed"
   },
   "direction": {
    "n": 46,
    "hits": 21,
    "share": 0.457,
    "unit": "share of forecasts with p not 50"
   },
   "move": {
    "n": 46,
    "mean_abs_pct": 0.8702,
    "median_abs_pct": 0.514,
    "unit": "percent of the level (not points)"
   }
  }
 },
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}