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"lo": 70, "n": 0, "said": null, "sessions": 0 }, { "bin": "[80,100]", "came": null, "ci_hi": null, "ci_lo": null, "hi": 100, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null, "sessions": 0 } ] } }, "calibration_folded_view": "folded to the backed side, four bins 50-100 (the page)", "calibration_view": "by direction of up, ten bins", "climatology_fixed": { "band": "0.1 x mean|open->close return, %| of the last 60 bars before the start x sqrt(days of the horizon); no minute bars exist for the history; for 1w and longer the file takes open->close of the start day for the band and the move from the open, the product takes close-to-close for its band (effect on p_up_ex_draw usually up to 1 pp)", "bss_reference": "p_up_ex_draw of the indicator's 1d row (the book's outcome rows leave ties out)", "event_match": { "approx": [ "BRENT", "BTC", "COPPER", "DXY", "GOLD", "US10Y", "VIX", "WTI" ], "by_asset": { "BRENT": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "event_match": "approx" }, "BTC": { "approx_rule": "the UTC day's open and close, the event runs from the seal minute 24 h", "event_match": "approx" }, "COPPER": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "event_match": "approx" }, "DJI": { "approx_rule": null, "event_match": "exact" }, "DXY": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "event_match": "approx" }, "GOLD": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "event_match": "approx" }, "NDX": { "approx_rule": null, "event_match": "exact" }, "SOX": { "approx_rule": null, "event_match": "exact" }, "SPX": { "approx_rule": null, "event_match": "exact" }, "US10Y": { "approx_rule": "the daily close of ^TNX, the event ends at the 15:00 ET bar", "event_match": "approx" }, "VIX": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of ^VIX ends at 16:15 ET, the event at the 16:00 ET bar", "event_match": "approx" }, "WTI": { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "event_match": "approx" } }, "exact": [ "DJI", "NDX", "SOX", "SPX" ], "what": "№579: per indicator, whether the climatology's window is the Council event's window. The history is Yahoo daily bars: the window is the bar of the start day, from ITS open (not from the previous close) to the close of the horizon's last day. exact = the start bar (open 09:30 ET of the start day) and the end day (close 16:00 ET) are the event's own session times; on 1w, 1m and 6m the window spans several days (5, 21, 126 sessions), so there the match is of the start and the end only, not of one session; approx = the bar covers another span (approx_rule). The registered sensitivity analysis (sensitivity_exact_window) takes the exact indicators only. The method and the sealed table are unchanged" }, "method": "daily bars: reference = the open of the start day, end = the close of the horizon's last day (1d, 1w=5, 1m=21, 6m=126 sessions; BTC 1/7/30/182 calendar days); all start days, so the starts of 1w/1m/6m overlap (n_independent = n // days); US10Y: the daily close, not the 15:00 ET bar; BTC: the UTC day's open and close, not the 09:00 ET -> 16:00 ET seal-minute window (minute bars of the history are not kept); GOLD, WTI, BRENT, COPPER and DXY: the window is Yahoo's daily bar of the contract (nearly 24h), NOT 09:30-16:00 ET as in the product, which takes the minute window 09:30-16:00 - a stated difference of the history from the live event; bars are cut at the window's end (no bar after 2025-12-31, BTC included)", "rule": "share of starts whose move (open of the start day -> close of the horizon's last day) was above 0, ties (|move| < band) counted by their true sign in p_up; p_up_ex_draw leaves the ties out (the book's outcome rows)", "sha256": "2810d11e907bbaa1f311d06622c929c69e60cc81e558fdb78f5baa04113cabb7", "sha256_ok": true, "table": [ { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "BRENT", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2515, "n_independent": 2515, "p_up": 0.524851, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.538726, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "BRENT", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2495, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.552705, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.55812, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "BRENT", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2511, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.547192, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.553228, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "BRENT", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 2390, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.526778, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.529672, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the UTC day's open and close, the event runs from the seal minute 24 h", "asset": "BTC", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 3653, "n_independent": 3653, "p_up": 0.528333, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.532487, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the UTC day's open and close, the event runs from the seal minute 24 h", "asset": "BTC", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 3624, "n_independent": 120, "p_up": 0.572296, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.581232, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the UTC day's open and close, the event runs from the seal minute 24 h", "asset": "BTC", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 3647, "n_independent": 521, "p_up": 0.548944, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.552234, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the UTC day's open and close, the event runs from the seal minute 24 h", "asset": "BTC", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 3472, "n_independent": 19, "p_up": 0.68462, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.696327, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "COPPER", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.499602, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.516488, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "COPPER", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.577386, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.576286, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "COPPER", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.53506, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.537332, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "COPPER", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 2389, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.620762, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.623951, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "DJI", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.536595, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.539355, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "DJI", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.661588, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.665682, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "DJI", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.588446, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.591005, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "DJI", "event_match": "exact", "h": "6m", "n": 2389, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.774383, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.782191, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "DXY", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2515, "n_independent": 2515, "p_up": 0.509742, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.516253, "rule": "move > 0, ties 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daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "GOLD", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.502784, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.525416, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "GOLD", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.579791, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.58606, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "GOLD", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.55498, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.556448, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", 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"rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "SPX", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.539777, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.540693, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "SPX", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.696872, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.706054, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "SPX", "event_match": "exact", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.611554, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.616611, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": null, "asset": "SPX", "event_match": "exact", "h": "6m", "n": 2389, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.794893, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.805279, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily close of ^TNX, the event ends at the 15:00 ET bar", "asset": "US10Y", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2513, "n_independent": 2513, "p_up": 0.476323, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.491845, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily close of ^TNX, the event ends at the 15:00 ET bar", "asset": "US10Y", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2493, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.525872, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.525201, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily close of ^TNX, the event ends at the 15:00 ET bar", "asset": "US10Y", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2509, "n_independent": 501, "p_up": 0.495018, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.497475, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily close of ^TNX, the event ends at the 15:00 ET bar", "asset": "US10Y", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 2388, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.556951, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.560352, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of ^VIX ends at 16:15 ET, the event at the 16:00 ET bar", "asset": "VIX", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.378282, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.370119, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of ^VIX ends at 16:15 ET, the event at the 16:00 ET bar", "asset": "VIX", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.442261, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.434649, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of ^VIX ends at 16:15 ET, the event at the 16:00 ET bar", "asset": "VIX", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.424701, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.418575, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of ^VIX ends at 16:15 ET, the event at the 16:00 ET bar", "asset": "VIX", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 2389, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.418167, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.422874, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "WTI", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1d", "n": 2514, "n_independent": 2514, "p_up": 0.52148, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.527599, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "WTI", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1m", "n": 2494, "n_independent": 118, "p_up": 0.537289, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.538395, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "WTI", "event_match": "approx", "h": "1w", "n": 2510, "n_independent": 502, "p_up": 0.534263, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.538825, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, { "approx_rule": "the daily bar of the contract (nearly 24 h), the event is 09:30 -> 16:00 ET", "asset": "WTI", "event_match": "approx", "h": "6m", "n": 2389, "n_independent": 18, "p_up": 0.518208, "p_up_ex_draw": 0.524832, "rule": "move > 0, ties by the band", "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] } ], "window": [ "2016-01-01", "2025-12-31" ] }, "council": { "brier": 0.2506, "bss": { "climatology": { "brier": 0.2506, "brier_ref": 0.2624, "bss": 0.045, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "climatology_fixed": { "brier": 0.2506, "brier_ref": 0.2506, "bss": -0.0002, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "coin": { "brier": 0.2506, "brier_ref": 0.25, "bss": -0.0024, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "crowd_kalshi": { "brier": 0.1958, "brier_ref": 0.1176, "bss": -0.6655, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 5, "sessions": 2 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "brier": 0.2618, "brier_ref": 0.251, "bss": -0.0429, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 10, "sessions": 2 } }, "calibration": [ { "came": null, "hi": 10, "lo": 0, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 20, "lo": 10, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 30, "lo": 20, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 0.0, "hi": 40, "lo": 30, "n": 2, "said": 38.0 }, { "came": 66.7, "hi": 50, "lo": 40, "n": 15, "said": 45.1 }, { "came": 50.0, "hi": 60, "lo": 50, "n": 28, "said": 53.9 }, { "came": 100.0, "hi": 70, "lo": 60, "n": 1, "said": 60.0 }, { "came": null, "hi": 80, "lo": 70, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 90, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 100, "lo": 90, "n": 0, "said": null } ], "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "counted_50_note": "cells left unanswered inside an answer that gave forecasts, counted as 50% (Brier 0.25, no side) from 2026-10-20; a stated 50% is not here", "counted_50_total": 0, "crowd_d": { "crowd_kalshi": { "council": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 6 }, "models": { "chatgpt": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 6 }, "claude": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 6 }, "deepseek": { "d": 0.2, "differ": 1, "n": 5 }, "gemini": { "d": 0.1667, "differ": 1, "n": 6 }, "grok": { "d": 0.3333, "differ": 2, "n": 6 }, "kimi": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 1 }, "meta": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 2 }, "mimo": { "d": 0.1667, "differ": 1, "n": 6 }, "stepfun": { "d": 0.2, "differ": 1, "n": 5 }, "wenxin": { "d": 0.6667, "differ": 2, "n": 3 }, "zai": { "d": 0.0, "differ": 0, "n": 2 } } }, "crowd_polymarket": { "council": { "d": 0.3913, "differ": 9, "n": 23 }, "models": { "chatgpt": { "d": 0.4737, "differ": 9, "n": 19 }, "claude": { "d": 0.3333, "differ": 7, "n": 21 }, "deepseek": { "d": 0.45, "differ": 9, "n": 20 }, "gemini": { "d": 0.35, "differ": 7, "n": 20 }, "grok": { "d": 0.25, "differ": 4, "n": 16 }, "kimi": { "d": 0.4167, "differ": 5, "n": 12 }, "meta": { "d": 0.4545, "differ": 5, "n": 11 }, "mimo": { "d": 0.2222, "differ": 4, "n": 18 }, "nemotron": { "d": 0.6667, "differ": 2, "n": 3 }, "stepfun": { "d": 0.4286, "differ": 6, "n": 14 }, "wenxin": { "d": 0.75, "differ": 6, "n": 8 }, "zai": { "d": 0.3333, "differ": 3, "n": 9 } } }, "terms": [ { "asset": "BTC", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "other_window": true, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-64770b7792", "rule_sha256": "64770b77923d6822e8a8d649a49a2690ae9c47e0ea3262c9786bd4dac6df43d2", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 38.0 }, { "asset": "DJI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "DXY", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "other_window": null, "quote_at": 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"rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-18", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 1969 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-18", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 823 }, { "asset": "BTC", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 59 }, { "asset": "DXY", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 170 }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 4338 }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": null }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 27449 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-19", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 11531 }, { "asset": "BTC", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 65 }, { "asset": "DJI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 42 }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 2328 }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 1 }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 17145 }, { "asset": "US10Y", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 25 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 592 }, { "asset": "DXY", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 6 }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 1969 }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 505 }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 11664 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 1531 } ] }, "crowd_floor_usd": 1000, "d_resolution": { "crowd_kalshi": { "d": 0.4, "differ": 2, "n": 5, "n_unresolved": 0 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "d": 0.4, "differ": 4, "n": 10, "n_unresolved": 0 }, "note": "d_resolution = share of market-sessions where our 1d event (open -> close) and the crowd contract's event resolved with a different sign; side_disagreement (the former crowd_d, unchanged) = share where the forecast sides (p > 50) differ; run-line crowd cells carry no contract outcome and are not in d_resolution", "pairs": [ { "asset": "BTC", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "other_window": true, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-64770b7792", "rule_sha256": "64770b77923d6822e8a8d649a49a2690ae9c47e0ea3262c9786bd4dac6df43d2", "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "DJI", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "DXY", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 0, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 0, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 1, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 1, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "kalshi", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "US10Y", "crowd": "kalshi", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 1, "ends": "2026-10-20T19:30:00Z", "other_window": false, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-fe60cb8b5c", "rule_sha256": "fe60cb8b5c18439970f4859f4b54e72de7e94085c59256c84b5d2cef9096a773", "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 0, "ends": null, "other_window": null, "our_outcome": 0, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "run_id": "2026-10-20-am", "session": "2026-10-20", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "BTC", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 1, "ends": "2026-10-22T16:00:00Z", "other_window": true, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-c6d73a2bc1", "rule_sha256": "c6d73a2bc16d994e833830db6440209dbfe4de82f45f6519ca976764e256b50b", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 1, "ends": "2026-10-21T21:00:00Z", "other_window": false, "our_outcome": 0, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-ed89be3ad0", "rule_sha256": "ed89be3ad0f0fcd31b7597a4684bab720ffa1d0c270d0c262e8daa6c176627af", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z", "other_window": false, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-fe7e4c6ca5", "rule_sha256": "fe7e4c6ca5c33439381fed17b99c3b15165c7dcd8a93961198f7697f42421c1f", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z", "other_window": false, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-7cb2921e13", "rule_sha256": "7cb2921e13ed9d1fa8fd28ff4a67e90c08771bd7943c01b4762f9be73ba8f83e", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "kalshi", "crowd_outcome": 1, "differ": 0, "ends": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z", "other_window": false, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-b4f3bfe903", "rule_sha256": "b4f3bfe90362afc4e3b90614fb0f867316c451a349ddc570c4ff5d1fd73f6370", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "crowd_outcome": 0, "differ": 1, "ends": "2026-10-21T22:00:00Z", "other_window": true, "our_outcome": 1, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": "r-794272d2a6", "rule_sha256": "794272d2a6a0343bdb95cd19c414263c860c10903a9c662757a530a7f6b3914b", "run_id": "2026-10-21-am", "session": "2026-10-21", "spread": null, "thin": false } ] }, "data_as_of": "2026-10-23T13:23:56Z", "data_through_session": "2026-10-22", "draw_band": { "brier_events": { "brier": "the event \"up\" with draws left out — the second figure; the only one for the days published before 2026-10-21 (not recounted)", "brier_all_rows": "the event \"close above the reference price (move > 0)\" on EVERY row, a draw included, with its true sign; the MAIN Brier for the sessions from 2026-10-21 (field `pall` of the score line)" }, "draw": "|move| < band is a draw", "estimator": "the mean absolute one-minute return (in %) over the minute bars before the reference price; x sqrt(390) scales a minute to a 390-minute session", "formula": "band_% = k x mean(|1-minute return|, %) x sqrt(390)", "in_score_line": "rows[*].1d.noise (the band, %), rows[*].1d.draw", "k": 0.1, "k_config_key": "thresholds.noise_sigma", "longer_horizons": { "N": { "1d": 1, "1m": 21, "1w": 5, "6m": 126 }, "N_btc_days": { "1d": 1, "1m": 30, "1w": 7, "6m": 182 }, "estimator": "the mean absolute close-to-close return of the last 60 New York days before the reference price (hourly bars, the last hourly close of each day), a session that holds a recorded change of contract left out; N = the horizon's sessions, BTC the horizon's calendar days", "formula": "band_% = k x mean(|daily return|, %) x sqrt(N)", "note": "a different estimator from the day's (daily closes, not minutes); score_h lines carry the band as `noise`" }, "rolls": "futures: the minute moves across a recorded change of contract (its hour and the one before) are left out (№144)", "what_it_is": "k times a scale of a day's move taken from the minute bars: mean(|1-minute return|) x sqrt(390) is about 0.8 of the day's standard deviation for normal returns, so the band is about 0.08 sigma_day (k is a factor, not a sigma)", "window": "FIXED: the last 4 x 390 minute bars strictly before the reference price (4 sessions of minutes); under 100 minute moves there is no band (a late rescore keeps the run's first one)" }, "first_session": "2026-10-19", "forecasts": 421, "horizon": "1d", "kind": "council-calibration", "last_session": "2026-10-22", "method": { "bins": "ten bins 0-10 ... 90-100, lower edge included (100 in the last)", "bins_folded": "calibration_folded: four half-open bins [50,60) [60,70) [70,80) [80,100] of the chance folded to the backed side (lower edge included, 100 in the last); a stated 50 backs no side and is in none, so the first bin holds only chances above 50", "bss": "1 - Brier(model) / Brier(reference)", "calibration": "calibration and models[*].calibration: the stated chance of up against the share that went up, ten bins, 50 included, Council = its consensus. calibration_folded: the page's view (council_portfolio.calibration), the stated chance folded to the side it backs (100-p when p<50), four bins [50,60) [60,70) [70,80) [80,100] (each bin's `bin`), 50 left out, all = the seats pooled, same numbers as the page; ci_lo/ci_hi 95% of the share that came, by sessions, from 20 sessions", "council": "the Council against the crowd = the mean of its members' crowd_up against the mean crowd price at the same minutes, one pair per question; against coin and climatology = its consensus cw (Poly World)", "counts": "sessions = distinct sessions, n = forecasts (several runs of a session each add their forecasts)", "crowd_window": "one pair = one model and one question: the model's own answer to the crowd's question (crowd_up, asked with the crowd's own rule and window: SPX/NDX against the last close, Kalshi's extras against the last settlement — asked only for an asset Polymarket has not, Polymarket's BTC noon to noon) against the crowd's price at that model's own answer minute, both scored on the crowd's resolution; the model's prob_up (09:30 open to close) is never compared with the crowd; a question without such pairs is not compared (Kalshi's extra market of an asset Polymarket has: the model answered Polymarket's question there); from 5 questions, below it bss is null with n", "d_resolution": "№477: d_resolution = share of market-sessions (run, asset, crowd) where our question (1d, open to close) and the crowd contract resolved with a different sign (outcomes known on both sides; a thin market is out); side_disagreement (= crowd_d, number unchanged) = share where the forecast sides (p > 50) differ - a disagreement of forecasts, not of resolutions", "fields": { "came": "share that came true, %", "n": "forecasts", "said": "mean stated probability of up, %" }, "fifty": "a stated forecast of exactly 50% (the score line's p50) is in the Briers, the BSS and calibration (ten bins: 50 lies in 50-60, the lower edge included); only calibration_folded leaves it out (it backs no side), as the page does; a gap counted as 50 in the day's Brier (missing50) is no stated forecast and is not here. The stated 50s of sessions before 2026-10-21 are not in the calibration: their score lines were sealed without p50 (the CSV has them as explicit_50); method.fifty_missing_before_p50 gives sessions, n and by_seat, counted from council-forecasts.csv", "fifty_missing_before_p50": { "by_seat": { "claude": 1, "deepseek": 2, "grok": 3, "mimo": 1, "stepfun": 1, "wenxin": 1 }, "n": 9, "sessions": [ "2026-10-20" ] }, "interval": "95%, percentile bootstrap drawing whole sessions, 2000 resamples, seed 20261019, from 5 sessions", "references": { "climatology": "by our sessions (rolling): share of up outcomes of all earlier sessions (strictly before the forecast session; 50% when none)", "climatology_fixed": "per indicator, the share of up of the 1d event (open -> close, ties left out) over the FIXED sealed window 2016-01-01 .. 2025-12-31 (see climatology_fixed below: table and sha256); never moves with the days; 50% for an indicator the window lacks", "coin": "50% on every question, Brier 0.25", "crowd_kalshi": "Kalshi price at the answer minute on the same question, scored on the same resolution", "crowd_polymarket": "Polymarket price at the answer minute on the same question, scored on the same resolution" } }, "models": { "chatgpt": { "brier": 0.2494, "bss": { "climatology": { "brier": 0.2494, "brier_ref": 0.2624, "bss": 0.0495, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "climatology_fixed": { "brier": 0.2494, "brier_ref": 0.2506, "bss": 0.0045, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "coin": { "brier": 0.2494, "brier_ref": 0.25, "bss": 0.0022, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "crowd_kalshi": { "brier": 0.1838, "brier_ref": 0.122, "bss": -0.5064, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 5, "sessions": 2 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "brier": 0.2453, "brier_ref": 0.2528, "bss": 0.0296, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 10, "sessions": 2 } }, "calibration": [ { "came": null, "hi": 10, "lo": 0, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 20, "lo": 10, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 30, "lo": 20, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 25.0, "hi": 40, "lo": 30, "n": 4, "said": 38.5 }, { "came": 61.9, "hi": 50, "lo": 40, "n": 21, "said": 45.0 }, { "came": 47.4, "hi": 60, "lo": 50, "n": 19, "said": 54.6 }, { "came": 100.0, "hi": 70, "lo": 60, "n": 2, "said": 62.0 }, { "came": null, "hi": 80, "lo": 70, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 90, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 100, "lo": 90, "n": 0, "said": null } ], "counted_50": 0, "n": 46, "sessions": 4 }, "claude": { "brier": 0.2598, "bss": { "climatology": { "brier": 0.2598, "brier_ref": 0.2637, "bss": 0.0145, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "climatology_fixed": { "brier": 0.2598, "brier_ref": 0.2514, "bss": -0.0335, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "coin": { "brier": 0.2598, "brier_ref": 0.25, "bss": -0.0393, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "crowd_kalshi": { "brier": 0.1582, "brier_ref": 0.1126, "bss": -0.4042, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 5, "sessions": 2 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "brier": 0.2644, "brier_ref": 0.2471, "bss": -0.0699, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 10, "sessions": 2 } }, "calibration": [ { "came": null, "hi": 10, "lo": 0, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 20, "lo": 10, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 30, "lo": 20, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 40, "lo": 30, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 65.2, "hi": 50, "lo": 40, "n": 23, "said": 46.8 }, { "came": 40.9, "hi": 60, "lo": 50, "n": 22, "said": 51.7 }, { "came": null, "hi": 70, "lo": 60, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 80, "lo": 70, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 90, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 100, "lo": 90, "n": 0, "said": null } ], "counted_50": 0, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "deepseek": { "brier": 0.2415, "bss": { "climatology": { "brier": 0.2415, "brier_ref": 0.265, "bss": 0.0887, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 44, "sessions": 4 }, "climatology_fixed": { "brier": 0.2415, "brier_ref": 0.252, "bss": 0.0418, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 44, "sessions": 4 }, "coin": { "brier": 0.2415, "brier_ref": 0.25, "bss": 0.0341, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 44, "sessions": 4 }, "crowd_kalshi": { "brier": 0.2263, "brier_ref": 0.1176, "bss": -0.9251, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 5, "sessions": 2 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "brier": 0.2675, "brier_ref": 0.2549, "bss": -0.0495, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 10, "sessions": 2 } }, "calibration": [ { "came": null, "hi": 10, "lo": 0, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 20, "lo": 10, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 30, "lo": 20, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 40, "lo": 30, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 46.7, "hi": 50, "lo": 40, "n": 15, "said": 43.8 }, { "came": 50.0, "hi": 60, "lo": 50, "n": 26, "said": 53.7 }, { "came": 100.0, "hi": 70, "lo": 60, "n": 3, "said": 60.0 }, { "came": null, "hi": 80, "lo": 70, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 90, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 100, "lo": 90, "n": 0, "said": null } ], "counted_50": 0, "n": 44, "sessions": 4 }, "gemini": { "brier": 0.2585, "bss": { "climatology": { "brier": 0.2585, "brier_ref": 0.2589, "bss": 0.0018, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "climatology_fixed": { "brier": 0.2585, "brier_ref": 0.2498, "bss": -0.0346, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "coin": { "brier": 0.2585, "brier_ref": 0.25, "bss": -0.0339, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 45, "sessions": 4 }, "crowd_kalshi": { "brier": 0.2077, "brier_ref": 0.1217, "bss": -0.7063, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 5, "sessions": 2 }, "crowd_polymarket": { "brier": 0.2694, "brier_ref": 0.2629, "bss": -0.0248, "hi": null, "level": 0.95, "lo": null, "method": null, "n": 10, "sessions": 2 } }, "calibration": [ { "came": null, "hi": 10, "lo": 0, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": null, "hi": 20, "lo": 10, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 0.0, "hi": 30, "lo": 20, "n": 1, "said": 26.0 }, { "came": 50.0, "hi": 40, "lo": 30, "n": 4, "said": 35.0 }, { "came": 83.3, "hi": 50, "lo": 40, "n": 6, "said": 43.5 }, { "came": 56.0, "hi": 60, "lo": 50, "n": 25, "said": 55.6 }, { "came": 42.9, "hi": 70, "lo": 60, "n": 7, "said": 61.9 }, { "came": 50.0, "hi": 80, "lo": 70, "n": 2, "said": 72.0 }, { "came": null, "hi": 90, "lo": 80, "n": 0, "said": null }, { "came": 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"vol": 25 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-22", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 592 }, { "asset": "DXY", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 6 }, { "asset": "GOLD", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 1969 }, { "asset": "NDX", "crowd": "kalshi", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": true, "vol": 505 }, { "asset": "SPX", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 11664 }, { "asset": "WTI", "crowd": "polymarket", "ends": null, "from": "run_line", "other_window": null, "quote_at": null, "rule_id": null, "rule_sha256": null, "session": "2026-10-23", "spread": null, "thin": false, "vol": 1531 } ] }, "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447", "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am", "thin_market": { "below_usd": 1000, "rule": "a crowd market with a sealed turnover under crowd_floor_usd dollars is thin: it is shown with the label “thin market” and is not in the AI-vs-crowd count; the rule applies to sessions from rule_from_session, earlier sessions are never thin; no sealed volume = no verdict", "rule_from_session": "2026-10-22" }, "version": 1 }