{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-class-sensitivity",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:37Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. pooled is the Brier over the rows of the seats (the unit is a seat's row), NOT the council's Brier of council-stats.json; late rows scored on their own reference are included. Only a report: the main score (council-stats.json brier) is not changed. Rows = status counted with an outcome (actual_pct), no draw, a probability; loss = (p/100 - up)^2, up = 1 if actual_pct > 0. pooled = the mean over all such rows of the horizon. by_class: the fixed table CLASSES (equity_index, rates, fx, commodity, crypto, volatility; else other). leave_one_out[class] = the mean loss without that class; equal_class_weight = the mean of the class means, each class once (classes under 10 rows are marked thin and left out of it). coin = 0.25. No seat is named.",
 "classes": {
  "SPX": "equity_index",
  "NDX": "equity_index",
  "DJI": "equity_index",
  "SOX": "equity_index",
  "US10Y": "rates",
  "DXY": "fx",
  "GOLD": "commodity",
  "WTI": "commodity",
  "BRENT": "commodity",
  "COPPER": "commodity",
  "BTC": "crypto",
  "VIX": "volatility"
 },
 "horizons": {
  "1d": {
   "n": 387,
   "pooled": 0.2503,
   "coin": 0.25,
   "classes": 6,
   "by_class": {
    "commodity": {
     "n": 134,
     "events": 16,
     "brier": 0.2526,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.249
    },
    "crypto": {
     "n": 33,
     "events": 4,
     "brier": 0.2402,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.2512
    },
    "equity_index": {
     "n": 128,
     "events": 15,
     "brier": 0.2434,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.2536
    },
    "fx": {
     "n": 25,
     "events": 3,
     "brier": 0.2677,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.249
    },
    "rates": {
     "n": 33,
     "events": 4,
     "brier": 0.2494,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.2503
    },
    "volatility": {
     "n": 34,
     "events": 4,
     "brier": 0.2643,
     "thin": false,
     "brier_without_class": 0.2489
    }
   },
   "equal_class_weight": 0.253,
   "equal_class_weight_classes": 6
  },
  "1w": {
   "n": 0,
   "why_null": "no counted scored row on this horizon yet"
  },
  "1m": {
   "n": 0,
   "why_null": "no counted scored row on this horizon yet"
  },
  "6m": {
   "n": 0,
   "why_null": "no counted scored row on this horizon yet"
  }
 },
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}