{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-clim-delta",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:38Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. q_clim = the fixed climatology window's share of starts that ended up (p_up_ex_draw x 100, council_clim_window, pinned by its sha256) for the market and horizon. climatology_delta = prob_up - q_clim in points; delta_from_50 = prob_up - 50. Rows: every row of council-forecasts.csv with a probability (cell status elicited or explicit_50). The delta separates a signal of the day from the historical drift; it is descriptive and changes no score.",
 "modes": {
  "probability": "prob_up",
  "deviation_from_50": "delta_from_50",
  "deviation_from_climatology": "climatology_delta"
 },
 "columns": [
  "run_id",
  "line",
  "asset",
  "horizon",
  "prob_up",
  "q_clim",
  "climatology_delta",
  "delta_from_50",
  "clim_sha256"
 ],
 "rows": 4596,
 "horizons": {
  "1d": {
   "runs": 8,
   "per_run": [
    {
     "run": "2026-10-16-eve",
     "rows": 264,
     "rows_with_clim": 264,
     "mean_climatology_delta": 0.43,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 4.94,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.62
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-17-btc",
     "rows": 216,
     "rows_with_clim": 216,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -0.75,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 7.21,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 6.56
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
     "rows": 168,
     "rows_with_clim": 168,
     "mean_climatology_delta": 0.59,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 5.3,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.14
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-19-am",
     "rows": 84,
     "rows_with_clim": 84,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -0.76,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 3.94,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.35
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-20-am",
     "rows": 105,
     "rows_with_clim": 105,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -1.72,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 6.97,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 4.7
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-21-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": 1.5,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 4.16,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.06
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-22-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -2.91,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 10.0,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 8.08
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-23-am",
     "rows": 96,
     "rows_with_clim": 96,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -2.21,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 7.73,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 6.14
    }
   ]
  },
  "1m": {
   "runs": 8,
   "per_run": [
    {
     "run": "2026-10-16-eve",
     "rows": 264,
     "rows_with_clim": 264,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -8.13,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 10.4,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.97
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-17-btc",
     "rows": 216,
     "rows_with_clim": 216,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -9.56,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 11.79,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.62
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
     "rows": 168,
     "rows_with_clim": 168,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -4.61,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 8.83,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.56
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-19-am",
     "rows": 84,
     "rows_with_clim": 84,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -7.2,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 12.61,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 9.07
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-20-am",
     "rows": 105,
     "rows_with_clim": 105,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -5.97,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 10.63,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 6.9
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-21-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -5.41,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 11.09,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.31
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-22-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -7.12,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 11.29,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.35
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-23-am",
     "rows": 96,
     "rows_with_clim": 96,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -8.53,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 10.57,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.61
    }
   ]
  },
  "1w": {
   "runs": 8,
   "per_run": [
    {
     "run": "2026-10-16-eve",
     "rows": 264,
     "rows_with_clim": 264,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -4.07,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 8.03,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.29
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-17-btc",
     "rows": 216,
     "rows_with_clim": 216,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -4.03,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 7.91,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.14
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
     "rows": 168,
     "rows_with_clim": 168,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -2.0,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 9.08,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.89
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-19-am",
     "rows": 84,
     "rows_with_clim": 84,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -1.79,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 7.48,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.27
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-20-am",
     "rows": 105,
     "rows_with_clim": 105,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -3.63,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 9.79,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.21
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-21-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -1.23,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 7.04,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 6.24
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-22-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -3.21,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 10.35,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 7.54
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-23-am",
     "rows": 96,
     "rows_with_clim": 96,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -4.91,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 9.43,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 5.95
    }
   ]
  },
  "6m": {
   "runs": 8,
   "per_run": [
    {
     "run": "2026-10-16-eve",
     "rows": 264,
     "rows_with_clim": 264,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -14.31,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 15.19,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 13.79
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-17-btc",
     "rows": 216,
     "rows_with_clim": 216,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -12.61,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 14.2,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 11.95
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
     "rows": 168,
     "rows_with_clim": 168,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -11.38,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 12.43,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 12.82
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-19-am",
     "rows": 84,
     "rows_with_clim": 84,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -12.88,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 13.68,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 12.43
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-20-am",
     "rows": 105,
     "rows_with_clim": 105,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -12.56,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 12.91,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 10.54
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-21-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -11.98,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 13.42,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 9.97
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-22-am",
     "rows": 108,
     "rows_with_clim": 108,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -12.71,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 13.79,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 10.06
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-23-am",
     "rows": 96,
     "rows_with_clim": 96,
     "mean_climatology_delta": -13.59,
     "mean_abs_climatology_delta": 14.21,
     "mean_abs_delta_from_50": 8.14
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}