{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-crowd-spread",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:54Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. One row = one crowd contract of one run, the very question the seats' `crowd_up` answered (Polymarket where it lists the market, else Kalshi), the answers sealed no later than the reference of the session. council_up = the simple mean of the seats' crowd_up (council_up_trimmed: the highest and the lowest left out from 5 answers, the rule of F12); crowd_gap_pp = council_up - crowd_p in points; same_side = both above or both below 50 (null at exactly 50); seat_distance_from_50 = the mean over seats of |crowd_up - 50|; crowd_distance_from_50 = |crowd_p - 50|. `main` counts the contracts with a sealed volume of at least $1,000 (the admission threshold of the crowd comparison), `main_counted_runs` only those of counted runs; `all` counts every contract. Facts only; no seat is named.",
 "seats_named": false,
 "season_blind": false,
 "min_volume_usd": 1000,
 "columns": [
  "session",
  "run_id",
  "asset",
  "venue",
  "volume_usd",
  "with_volume",
  "crowd_p",
  "council_up",
  "crowd_gap_pp",
  "same_side",
  "crowd_distance_from_50",
  "seat_distance_from_50",
  "council_distance_from_50",
  "distance_ratio",
  "counted_run",
  "council_up_trimmed",
  "crowd_gap_pp_trimmed"
 ],
 "rows": 35,
 "summary": {
  "main": {
   "n": 15,
   "n_side_known": 15,
   "same_side_share": 0.8,
   "crowd_distance_from_50": 21.77,
   "seat_distance_from_50": 9.13,
   "distance_ratio": 0.419,
   "mean_abs_gap_pp": 15.33,
   "mean_gap_pp": 2.74
  },
  "main_counted_runs": {
   "n": 11,
   "n_side_known": 11,
   "same_side_share": 0.9091,
   "crowd_distance_from_50": 23.23,
   "seat_distance_from_50": 9.71,
   "distance_ratio": 0.418,
   "mean_abs_gap_pp": 15.51,
   "mean_gap_pp": 4.4
  },
  "all": {
   "n": 35,
   "n_side_known": 34,
   "same_side_share": 0.7647,
   "crowd_distance_from_50": 19.33,
   "seat_distance_from_50": 8.59,
   "distance_ratio": 0.444,
   "mean_abs_gap_pp": 15.8,
   "mean_gap_pp": 2.18
  },
  "by_run": [
   {
    "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
    "session": "2026-10-18",
    "counted_run": false,
    "main": {
     "n": 1,
     "n_side_known": 1,
     "same_side_share": 0.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 18.5,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 4.38,
     "distance_ratio": 0.237,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 18.62,
     "mean_gap_pp": 18.62
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 4,
     "n_side_known": 4,
     "same_side_share": 0.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 10.25,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 4.96,
     "distance_ratio": 0.484,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 13.71,
     "mean_gap_pp": 13.33
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "2026-10-19-am",
    "session": "2026-10-19",
    "counted_run": true,
    "main": {
     "n": 3,
     "n_side_known": 3,
     "same_side_share": 0.6667,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 21.17,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 8.05,
     "distance_ratio": 0.38,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 16.07,
     "mean_gap_pp": 2.17
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 6,
     "n_side_known": 6,
     "same_side_share": 0.8333,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 20.35,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 6.98,
     "distance_ratio": 0.343,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 16.07,
     "mean_gap_pp": -6.21
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "2026-10-20-am",
    "session": "2026-10-20",
    "counted_run": true,
    "main": {
     "n": 3,
     "n_side_known": 3,
     "same_side_share": 1.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 23.33,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 7.25,
     "distance_ratio": 0.311,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 16.5,
     "mean_gap_pp": 2.25
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 8,
     "n_side_known": 7,
     "same_side_share": 1.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 20.74,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 5.92,
     "distance_ratio": 0.286,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 17.19,
     "mean_gap_pp": 10.75
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "2026-10-21-am",
    "session": "2026-10-21",
    "counted_run": true,
    "main": {
     "n": 3,
     "n_side_known": 3,
     "same_side_share": 1.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 12.67,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 8.52,
     "distance_ratio": 0.672,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 8.07,
     "mean_gap_pp": -4.52
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 5,
     "n_side_known": 5,
     "same_side_share": 0.8,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 14.0,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 8.53,
     "distance_ratio": 0.609,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 9.42,
     "mean_gap_pp": -5.67
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "2026-10-22-am",
    "session": "2026-10-22",
    "counted_run": true,
    "main": {
     "n": 2,
     "n_side_known": 2,
     "same_side_share": 1.0,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 42.0,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 17.66,
     "distance_ratio": 0.421,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 24.34,
     "mean_gap_pp": 24.34
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 7,
     "n_side_known": 7,
     "same_side_share": 0.8571,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 26.57,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 16.05,
     "distance_ratio": 0.604,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 20.03,
     "mean_gap_pp": 9.22
    }
   },
   {
    "run": "2026-10-23-am",
    "session": "2026-10-23",
    "counted_run": false,
    "main": {
     "n": 3,
     "n_side_known": 3,
     "same_side_share": 0.6667,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 17.5,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 8.59,
     "distance_ratio": 0.491,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 13.56,
     "mean_gap_pp": -8.64
    },
    "all": {
     "n": 5,
     "n_side_known": 5,
     "same_side_share": 0.8,
     "crowd_distance_from_50": 18.34,
     "seat_distance_from_50": 7.33,
     "distance_ratio": 0.4,
     "mean_abs_gap_pp": 15.39,
     "mean_gap_pp": -12.43
    }
   }
  ],
  "widest": [
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-22-am",
    "asset": "GOLD",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 2328.0,
    "crowd_p": 7.5,
    "council_up": 33.78,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 26.28,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-23-am",
    "asset": "WTI",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 1531.0,
    "crowd_p": 85.0,
    "council_up": 60.57,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -24.43,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-22-am",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 17145.0,
    "crowd_p": 8.5,
    "council_up": 30.89,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 22.39,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-19-am",
    "asset": "WTI",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 11531.0,
    "crowd_p": 20.0,
    "council_up": 41.57,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 21.57,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-20-am",
    "asset": "WTI",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 3736.0,
    "crowd_p": 83.0,
    "council_up": 61.62,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -21.38,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-19-am",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 27449.0,
    "crowd_p": 82.0,
    "council_up": 61.14,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -20.86,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-18-radar",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 1969.0,
    "crowd_p": 31.5,
    "council_up": 50.12,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 18.62,
    "same_side": false
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-20-am",
    "asset": "GOLD",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 3112.0,
    "crowd_p": 29.0,
    "council_up": 44.75,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 15.75,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-21-am",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 13671.0,
    "crowd_p": 74.5,
    "council_up": 61.78,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -12.72,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-20-am",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 20637.0,
    "crowd_p": 34.0,
    "council_up": 46.38,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 12.38,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-23-am",
    "asset": "GOLD",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 1969.0,
    "crowd_p": 53.0,
    "council_up": 44.14,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -8.86,
    "same_side": false
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-23-am",
    "asset": "SPX",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 11664.0,
    "crowd_p": 35.5,
    "council_up": 42.88,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 7.38,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-21-am",
    "asset": "GOLD",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 2185.0,
    "crowd_p": 60.5,
    "council_up": 54.33,
    "crowd_gap_pp": -6.17,
    "same_side": true
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-19-am",
    "asset": "GOLD",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 4338.0,
    "crowd_p": 48.5,
    "council_up": 54.29,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 5.79,
    "same_side": false
   },
   {
    "run_id": "2026-10-21-am",
    "asset": "WTI",
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "volume_usd": 3071.0,
    "crowd_p": 53.0,
    "council_up": 58.33,
    "crowd_gap_pp": 5.33,
    "same_side": true
   }
  ]
 },
 "fields": {
  "crowd_gap_pp": "council_up - crowd_p, points",
  "same_side": "council_up and crowd_p on the same side of 50",
  "crowd_distance_from_50": "|crowd_p - 50|",
  "seat_distance_from_50": "mean over seats of |crowd_up - 50|"
 },
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}