{ "license": "CC BY 4.0", "kind": "council-rho-checks", "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:36Z", "rule": "rho: the same timely votes as n_eff by horizon (council-stats.json). rho_ci = the 95% percentile interval of the run's mean pairwise correlation, bootstrap over the run's markets (200 draws, a fixed seed from the run and the horizon); null when the run has under 4 markets or under 3 seats. The interval covers market sampling only (about 12 markets per run); seats are fixed; runs share the same markets, so runs are not independent. The percentile interval may lie asymmetrically around rho. n_eff_mean_at_run_bounds = the mean over runs of each run's own bounds (not an interval of the mean). n_eff_at_rho_hi / n_eff_at_rho_lo = Kish n/(1+(n-1)rho) at the upper / lower bound of rho (a negative bound counts as 0). rho_ci_over_runs = the same interval of the horizon's mean rho by bootstrap over runs (from 5 runs, else null). closest_pairs: seats ranked by the correlation of their probabilities across the markets of a run (rank 1 = the closest); cross_side = the two sides of the pair differ (null when a side is not known); seats are not named. In a blind season the pairs carry rank and rho only, sides after the reveal.", "rho": { "1d": { "runs": 5, "n_eff": 1.92, "rho": 0.48, "seats": 8.2, "rho_ci_over_runs": [ 0.382, 0.587 ], "n_eff_at_rho_ci_over_runs": [ 1.57, 2.19 ], "n_eff_mean_at_run_bounds": { "at_rho_hi": 1.36, "at_rho_lo": 3.72, "runs": 5 }, "per_run": [ { "run": "2026-10-19-am", "seats": 7, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.505, "rho_ci": [ 0.156, 0.808 ], "n_eff": 1.74, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.2, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 3.62 }, { "run": "2026-10-20-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.64, "rho_ci": [ 0.485, 0.818 ], "n_eff": 1.46, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.19, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.82 }, { "run": "2026-10-21-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.379, "rho_ci": [ 0.036, 0.593 ], "n_eff": 2.23, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.57, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 6.99 }, { "run": "2026-10-22-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.576, "rho_ci": [ 0.362, 0.866 ], "n_eff": 1.6, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.14, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 2.31 }, { "run": "2026-10-23-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.301, "rho_ci": [ 0.154, 0.52 ], "n_eff": 2.57, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.72, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 3.85 } ] }, "1w": { "runs": 5, "n_eff": 2.13, "rho": 0.431, "seats": 8.2, "rho_ci_over_runs": [ 0.306, 0.575 ], "n_eff_at_rho_ci_over_runs": [ 1.6, 2.56 ], "n_eff_mean_at_run_bounds": { "at_rho_hi": 1.66, "at_rho_lo": 3.68, "runs": 5 }, "per_run": [ { "run": "2026-10-19-am", "seats": 7, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.248, "rho_ci": [ 0.054, 0.387 ], "n_eff": 2.81, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 2.11, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 5.29 }, { "run": "2026-10-20-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.432, "rho_ci": [ 0.221, 0.554 ], "n_eff": 1.99, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.64, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 3.14 }, { "run": "2026-10-21-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.302, "rho_ci": [ 0.134, 0.437 ], "n_eff": 2.63, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 2.0, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 4.34 }, { "run": "2026-10-22-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.713, "rho_ci": [ 0.493, 0.906 ], "n_eff": 1.34, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.09, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.82 }, { "run": "2026-10-23-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.462, "rho_ci": [ 0.158, 0.642 ], "n_eff": 1.89, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.46, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 3.8 } ] }, "1m": { "runs": 5, "n_eff": 2.68, "rho": 0.289, "seats": 8.2, "rho_ci_over_runs": [ 0.255, 0.319 ], "n_eff_at_rho_ci_over_runs": [ 2.49, 2.89 ], "n_eff_mean_at_run_bounds": { "at_rho_hi": 1.93, "at_rho_lo": 6.36, "runs": 5 }, "per_run": [ { "run": "2026-10-19-am", "seats": 7, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.321, "rho_ci": [ 0.046, 0.472 ], "n_eff": 2.39, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.83, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 5.49 }, { "run": "2026-10-20-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.284, "rho_ci": [ 0.057, 0.474 ], "n_eff": 2.68, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.85, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 5.72 }, { "run": "2026-10-21-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.343, "rho_ci": [ 0.089, 0.48 ], "n_eff": 2.41, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.86, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 5.26 }, { "run": "2026-10-22-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.246, "rho_ci": [ -0.014, 0.41 ], "n_eff": 3.04, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 2.1, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 9.0 }, { "run": "2026-10-23-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.253, "rho_ci": [ 0.037, 0.427 ], "n_eff": 2.89, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 2.01, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 6.35 } ] }, "6m": { "runs": 5, "n_eff": 1.28, "rho": 0.765, "seats": 8.2, "rho_ci_over_runs": [ 0.661, 0.835 ], "n_eff_at_rho_ci_over_runs": [ 1.17, 1.42 ], "n_eff_mean_at_run_bounds": { "at_rho_hi": 1.14, "at_rho_lo": 1.5, "runs": 5 }, "per_run": [ { "run": "2026-10-19-am", "seats": 7, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.838, "rho_ci": [ 0.698, 0.95 ], "n_eff": 1.16, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.04, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.35 }, { "run": "2026-10-20-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.859, "rho_ci": [ 0.738, 0.946 ], "n_eff": 1.14, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.05, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.3 }, { "run": "2026-10-21-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.589, "rho_ci": [ 0.452, 0.731 ], "n_eff": 1.58, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.31, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.95 }, { "run": "2026-10-22-am", "seats": 9, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.776, "rho_ci": [ 0.673, 0.832 ], "n_eff": 1.25, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.18, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.41 }, { "run": "2026-10-23-am", "seats": 8, "indicators": 12, "rho": 0.761, "rho_ci": [ 0.629, 0.887 ], "n_eff": 1.26, "n_eff_at_rho_hi": 1.11, "n_eff_at_rho_lo": 1.48 } ] } }, "closest_pairs": { "1d": { "runs": 5, "per_run": [ { "run": "2026-10-19-am", "seats": 7, "pairs": 21, "top3_cross_side": 1, "top3_within_side": 2, "top3_unknown": 0, "pairs_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "rho": 0.912, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 2, "rho": 0.861, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 3, "rho": 0.845, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 4, "rho": 0.792, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 5, "rho": 0.789, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 6, "rho": 0.746, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 7, "rho": 0.738, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 8, "rho": 0.713, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 9, "rho": 0.693, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 10, "rho": 0.693, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 11, "rho": 0.598, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 12, "rho": 0.441, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 13, "rho": 0.399, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 14, "rho": 0.367, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 15, "rho": 0.274, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 16, "rho": 0.271, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 17, "rho": 0.259, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 18, "rho": 0.166, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 19, "rho": 0.112, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 20, "rho": 0.072, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 21, "rho": -0.145, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true } ] }, { "run": "2026-10-20-am", "seats": 8, "pairs": 28, "top3_cross_side": 3, "top3_within_side": 0, "top3_unknown": 0, "pairs_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "rho": 0.964, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 2, "rho": 0.947, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 3, "rho": 0.924, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 4, "rho": 0.92, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 5, "rho": 0.898, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 6, "rho": 0.895, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 7, "rho": 0.884, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 8, "rho": 0.878, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 9, "rho": 0.83, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 10, "rho": 0.811, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 11, "rho": 0.788, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 12, "rho": 0.787, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 13, "rho": 0.761, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 14, "rho": 0.744, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 15, "rho": 0.723, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 16, "rho": 0.708, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 17, "rho": 0.695, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 18, "rho": 0.675, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 19, "rho": 0.626, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 20, "rho": 0.604, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 21, "rho": 0.472, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 22, "rho": 0.386, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 23, "rho": 0.371, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 24, "rho": 0.312, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 25, "rho": 0.28, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 26, "rho": 0.26, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 27, "rho": -0.086, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 28, "rho": -0.14, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false } ] }, { "run": "2026-10-21-am", "seats": 9, "pairs": 36, "top3_cross_side": 2, "top3_within_side": 1, "top3_unknown": 0, "pairs_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "rho": 0.762, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 2, "rho": 0.737, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 3, "rho": 0.711, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 4, "rho": 0.693, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 5, "rho": 0.669, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 6, "rho": 0.647, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 7, "rho": 0.644, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 8, "rho": 0.639, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 9, "rho": 0.621, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 10, "rho": 0.598, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 11, "rho": 0.594, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 12, "rho": 0.585, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 13, "rho": 0.578, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 14, "rho": 0.551, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 15, "rho": 0.507, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 16, "rho": 0.501, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 17, "rho": 0.462, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 18, "rho": 0.431, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 19, "rho": 0.424, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 20, "rho": 0.42, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 21, "rho": 0.335, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 22, "rho": 0.321, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 23, "rho": 0.29, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 24, "rho": 0.281, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 25, "rho": 0.267, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 26, "rho": 0.241, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 27, "rho": 0.179, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 28, "rho": 0.177, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 29, "rho": 0.151, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 30, "rho": 0.07, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 31, "rho": 0.062, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 32, "rho": -0.016, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 33, "rho": -0.033, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 34, "rho": -0.039, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 35, "rho": -0.062, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 36, "rho": -0.341, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false } ] }, { "run": "2026-10-22-am", "seats": 9, "pairs": 36, "top3_cross_side": 1, "top3_within_side": 2, "top3_unknown": 0, "pairs_ranked": [ { "rank": 1, "rho": 0.963, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 2, "rho": 0.961, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 3, "rho": 0.959, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 4, "rho": 0.953, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 5, "rho": 0.943, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 6, "rho": 0.91, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 7, "rho": 0.909, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 8, "rho": 0.895, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 9, "rho": 0.875, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 10, "rho": 0.867, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 11, "rho": 0.867, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 12, "rho": 0.848, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 13, "rho": 0.834, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 14, "rho": 0.791, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 15, "rho": 0.773, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 16, "rho": 0.768, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "US", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 17, "rho": 0.721, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 18, "rho": 0.716, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 19, "rho": 0.696, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 20, "rho": 0.613, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 21, "rho": 0.612, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 22, "rho": 0.576, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 23, "rho": 0.505, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": false }, { "rank": 24, "rho": 0.415, "side_a": "US", "side_b": "CN", "cross_side": true }, { "rank": 25, "rho": 0.353, "side_a": "CN", "side_b": "CN", 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