{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-run-facts",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:34Z",
 "rule": "n_eff_mechanical: a panel of 3 voices (three simple rules), so its ceiling is 3; it is a reference for an \"independent\" panel, not a claim about the models. It is computed on the cells (run, market, horizon) that the models' timely n_eff uses, by the same formula; `runs` stands beside every number; a negative rho counts as 0, so a run never shows more than 3 (`rho_below_zero` marks such a run). The rules are written out and nothing is fitted; no AI call. roster: numbers only. asked = the sealed roster of the run, known from 2026-10-21 (null before). answered = seats with an answer line in the book (within the roster where it is known). answered_before_open = seats whose answer was printed no later than the reference (09:30 ET of the session); answered_after_open = answered minus that. counted_in_score = seats with status counted in council-forecasts.csv for the run (the main score); a late answer is counted from its own reference price, as council_score.counted_answers does, so counted_in_score can exceed answered_before_open. question.question_text_n = the N written in \"You are one of N AIs\" in the run's question text. answers: line = the line number in the book; timestamp_level rfc3161_before_open = the first RFC 3161 mark is earlier than the reference (09:30 ET of the session), margin_s = the seconds between them (null otherwise); order_1 = the external time is later than the reference, the order of the lines is level 1. first_list_at = the first list of any kind that holds the line, first_list_margin_s its margin to the reference (null when later). run_role_from_2026_10_21: by the suffix of the run id, -am = scheduled_run, any other = reference_only; before that date not_applicable_before_2026-10-21.",
 "n_eff_mechanical": {
  "panel": [
   "yesterday_sign",
   "trend_5d",
   "climatology"
  ],
  "step_points": 5,
  "rules": {
   "yesterday_sign": "probability = 50 + 5 if the previous session's move (chg_day_pct of the snapshot the models were given) was up, 50 - 5 if down, 50 if zero; the same on every horizon",
   "trend_5d": "probability = 50 + 5 if the five-session move (chg_1w_pct of the same snapshot) was up, 50 - 5 if down, 50 if zero; the same on every horizon",
   "climatology": "probability = the share of starts that ended up over 2016-2025 for this market and horizon (council_clim_window, p_up_ex_draw, sealed by its sha256)"
  },
  "climatology_sha256": "2810d11e907bbaa1f311d06622c929c69e60cc81e558fdb78f5baa04113cabb7",
  "formula": "Kish n/(1+(n-1)rho), rho = the mean pairwise Pearson correlation of the panel across the indicators of a run; a run needs 3 voices in 4+ indicators; the horizon's number = the mean over its runs",
  "per_seat": "n_eff_per_seat = n_eff / the number of voices of the panel, so a panel of 3 and a panel of ~9 can be compared as shares",
  "horizons": {
   "1d": {
    "cells": 60,
    "runs_seen": 5,
    "mechanical": {
     "panel_size": 3,
     "ceiling": 3,
     "runs_note": "runs = the runs behind n_eff",
     "n_eff": 2.67,
     "rho": 0.027,
     "runs": 5,
     "why_null": null,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 2.86,
     "per_run": [
      {
       "run": "2026-10-19-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.118,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-20-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.098,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-21-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.174,
       "n_eff": 2.22,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-22-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.029,
       "n_eff": 2.84,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-23-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.15,
       "n_eff": 2.31,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      }
     ]
    },
    "models_same_cells": {
     "seats_mean": 8.2,
     "n_eff": 1.92,
     "rho": 0.48,
     "runs": 5,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 1.97
    },
    "on_runs_with_both": {
     "runs": 5,
     "mechanical_n_eff": 2.67,
     "mechanical_n_eff_per_seat": 0.89,
     "models_n_eff": 1.92,
     "models_n_eff_per_seat": 0.236
    }
   },
   "1w": {
    "cells": 60,
    "runs_seen": 5,
    "mechanical": {
     "panel_size": 3,
     "ceiling": 3,
     "runs_note": "runs = the runs behind n_eff",
     "n_eff": 2.63,
     "rho": 0.033,
     "runs": 5,
     "why_null": null,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 2.77,
     "per_run": [
      {
       "run": "2026-10-19-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.206,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-20-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.032,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-21-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.201,
       "n_eff": 2.14,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-22-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.14,
       "n_eff": 2.34,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-23-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.06,
       "n_eff": 2.68,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      }
     ]
    },
    "models_same_cells": {
     "seats_mean": 8.2,
     "n_eff": 2.13,
     "rho": 0.431,
     "runs": 5,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 2.44
    },
    "on_runs_with_both": {
     "runs": 5,
     "mechanical_n_eff": 2.63,
     "mechanical_n_eff_per_seat": 0.877,
     "models_n_eff": 2.13,
     "models_n_eff_per_seat": 0.266
    }
   },
   "1m": {
    "cells": 60,
    "runs_seen": 5,
    "mechanical": {
     "panel_size": 3,
     "ceiling": 3,
     "runs_note": "runs = the runs behind n_eff",
     "n_eff": 2.71,
     "rho": 0.004,
     "runs": 5,
     "why_null": null,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 2.74,
     "per_run": [
      {
       "run": "2026-10-19-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.262,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-20-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.022,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-21-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.149,
       "n_eff": 2.31,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-22-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.163,
       "n_eff": 2.26,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-23-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.009,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      }
     ]
    },
    "models_same_cells": {
     "seats_mean": 8.2,
     "n_eff": 2.68,
     "rho": 0.289,
     "runs": 5,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 3.01
    },
    "on_runs_with_both": {
     "runs": 5,
     "mechanical_n_eff": 2.71,
     "mechanical_n_eff_per_seat": 0.903,
     "models_n_eff": 2.68,
     "models_n_eff_per_seat": 0.329
    }
   },
   "6m": {
    "cells": 60,
    "runs_seen": 5,
    "mechanical": {
     "panel_size": 3,
     "ceiling": 3,
     "runs_note": "runs = the runs behind n_eff",
     "n_eff": 2.81,
     "rho": -0.055,
     "runs": 5,
     "why_null": null,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 2.81,
     "per_run": [
      {
       "run": "2026-10-19-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.21,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-20-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.143,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-21-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.153,
       "n_eff": 2.3,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-22-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": 0.049,
       "n_eff": 2.73,
       "rho_below_zero": false
      },
      {
       "run": "2026-10-23-am",
       "seats": 3,
       "indicators": 12,
       "rho": -0.124,
       "n_eff": 3.0,
       "rho_below_zero": true
      }
     ]
    },
    "models_same_cells": {
     "seats_mean": 8.2,
     "n_eff": 1.28,
     "rho": 0.765,
     "runs": 5,
     "one_per_group_n_eff": 1.29
    },
    "on_runs_with_both": {
     "runs": 5,
     "mechanical_n_eff": 2.81,
     "mechanical_n_eff_per_seat": 0.937,
     "models_n_eff": 1.28,
     "models_n_eff_per_seat": 0.156
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "runs": [
  {
   "run": "2026-10-16-eve",
   "run_id": "2026-10-16-eve",
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "roster": {
    "asked": null,
    "answered": 9,
    "answered_before_open": 9,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 0
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "713230e634feea8ecb172c99ff159c575fe8d5dac2c83154ef4b3362c9404f68"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "earlier_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "not_applicable_before_2026-10-21",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-19T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-17-btc",
   "run_id": "2026-10-17-btc",
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "roster": {
    "asked": null,
    "answered": 9,
    "answered_before_open": 9,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 0
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "2e42baeb8359ae2ce8d0e91565d8d60c7cb9ea6c8d3582a303e74b93e5e8f638"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "earlier_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "not_applicable_before_2026-10-21",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-19T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-18-radar",
   "run_id": "2026-10-18-radar",
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "roster": {
    "asked": null,
    "answered": 8,
    "answered_before_open": 8,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 0
   },
   "question": {
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    "file_sha256": "9a7a56875053febc76af2194b815d138c8b0d22ab56ea68bf1442f6aa94883df"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "earlier_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "not_applicable_before_2026-10-21",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-19T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-19-am",
   "run_id": "2026-10-19-am",
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "roster": {
    "asked": null,
    "answered": 7,
    "answered_before_open": 7,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 7
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "02577f9c8dee9864f6604b4f2ee04a070a5ea8efed1f0e33a031bee8dae7b6a5"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "session_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "not_applicable_before_2026-10-21",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-19T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "run_id": "2026-10-20-am",
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "roster": {
    "asked": null,
    "answered": 9,
    "answered_before_open": 8,
    "answered_after_open": 1,
    "counted_in_score": 9
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "3ff66309abd57b9092b8445a413c63466f3d8e4f030ecc78e89bf8ac2a989d4d"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "session_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "not_applicable_before_2026-10-21",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-20T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "run_id": "2026-10-21-am",
   "session": "2026-10-21",
   "roster": {
    "asked": 10,
    "answered": 9,
    "answered_before_open": 9,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 9
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "e832c0ab4f12d7df33364164e342a0950c83154d90e76eb47754d93528dee4b9"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "session_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "scheduled_run",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-21T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "run_id": "2026-10-22-am",
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "roster": {
    "asked": 10,
    "answered": 9,
    "answered_before_open": 9,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 9
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "db7c1ab1eade0c387530ece039c66849722394fba782f81abed133fa6473c7a1"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "session_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "scheduled_run",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-22T13:30:00Z"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-23-am",
   "run_id": "2026-10-23-am",
   "session": "2026-10-23",
   "roster": {
    "asked": 10,
    "answered": 7,
    "answered_before_open": 7,
    "answered_after_open": 0,
    "counted_in_score": 0
   },
   "question": {
    "question_text_n": 10,
    "file_sha256": "5c0e3b2ac9ffbbdf6e17ecd7bc544baa4b20501e903a1c407b4bc02ec8aa7a36"
   },
   "run_role_in_csv": "session_run",
   "run_role_from_2026_10_21": "scheduled_run",
   "reference_time": "2026-10-23T13:30:00Z"
  }
 ],
 "run_role": {
  "csv_values_now": {
   "earlier_run": 3,
   "session_run": 5
  },
  "csv_unchanged": true,
  "note": "council-forecasts.csv keeps run_role session_run / earlier_run for every row; the role the counted-run rule gives from 2026-10-21 is in runs[].run_role_from_2026_10_21"
 },
 "answers": [
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   "rfc3161_list": "2026-10-21/033434Z.txt",
   "rfc3161_first": "2026-10-21T03:34:34Z",
   "rfc3161": {
    "digicert": "2026-10-21T03:34:34Z",
    "freetsa": "2026-10-21T03:34:37Z",
    "sectigo": "2026-10-21T03:34:35Z"
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   "services_first": [
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   ],
   "opentimestamps": true,
   "reference_time": "2026-10-19T13:30:00Z",
   "margin_s": null,
   "timestamp_level": "order_1",
   "first_list_margin_s": 212382
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  {
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   "rfc3161_list": "2026-10-21/033434Z.txt",
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   "rfc3161": {
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   "rfc3161": {
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