{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-spectral",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:37Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. lambda1 = the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix of the seats across the markets of a run (power iteration); first_component_share = lambda1 / seats; d_pr = seats^2 / sum of squared entries of the matrix (the participation ratio); n_eff_kish = seats / (1 + (seats - 1) rho) with rho the mean pairwise correlation (a negative rho counts as 0), as in council-stats.json. The matrix is pairwise-complete: a pair with under 4 shared markets, or with no spread in one seat's probabilities (zero variance), has no correlation and is set to 0 (counted in pairs_missing); no other regularization is applied. ci95 = tanh(atanh(rho) +- 1.96 / sqrt(n - 3)) for n > 3 markets; the runs share the same markets, so runs are not independent and the interval is a guide. A seat is counted in a run when it stands in 4+ markets or half of them; a run needs 3+ seats and 4+ markets (as for N_eff). In a blind or unsure season the pairs carry rank and numbers, not names.",
 "seats_named": true,
 "horizons": {
  "1d": {
   "runs": 5,
   "lambda1_mean": 4.915,
   "first_component_share_mean": 0.6,
   "d_pr_mean": 2.446,
   "n_eff_kish_mean": 1.92,
   "per_run": [
    {
     "run": "2026-10-19-am",
     "seats": 7,
     "markets": 12,
     "lambda1": 4.294,
     "first_component_share": 0.613,
     "d_pr": 2.28,
     "n_eff_kish": 1.74,
     "rho": 0.505,
     "pair_n_min": 11,
     "pair_n_mean": 11.7,
     "pairs_missing": 0,
     "pairs": [
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "claude",
       "rho": 0.912,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.709,
        0.975
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.861,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.54,
        0.963
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.845,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.526,
        0.955
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "kimi",
       "rho": 0.792,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.4,
        0.939
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.789,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.358,
        0.943
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "kimi",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.746,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.265,
        0.93
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.738,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.284,
        0.921
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.713,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.235,
        0.913
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "kimi",
       "rho": 0.693,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.198,
        0.906
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "kimi",
       "rho": 0.693,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.198,
        0.906
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.598,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.003,
        0.882
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.441,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.216,
        0.823
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "kimi",
       "rho": 0.399,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.227,
        0.792
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.367,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.262,
        0.777
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.274,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.356,
        0.733
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.271,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.358,
        0.731
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "kimi",
       "rho": 0.259,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.37,
        0.725
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.166,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.45,
        0.676
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.112,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.494,
        0.644
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.072,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.552,
        0.644
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": -0.145,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.664,
        0.468
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-20-am",
     "seats": 8,
     "markets": 12,
     "lambda1": 5.816,
     "first_component_share": 0.727,
     "d_pr": 1.79,
     "n_eff_kish": 1.46,
     "rho": 0.64,
     "pair_n_min": 12,
     "pair_n_mean": 12.0,
     "pairs_missing": 0,
     "pairs": [
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.964,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.874,
        0.99
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.947,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.816,
        0.985
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.924,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.744,
        0.979
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.92,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.734,
        0.978
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.898,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.669,
        0.971
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.895,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.661,
        0.971
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.884,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.631,
        0.967
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "mimo",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.878,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.612,
        0.965
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.83,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.49,
        0.951
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.811,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.444,
        0.945
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.788,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.391,
        0.938
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.787,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.388,
        0.937
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "mimo",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.761,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.332,
        0.929
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.744,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.297,
        0.924
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.723,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.255,
        0.917
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.708,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.226,
        0.912
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.695,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.202,
        0.907
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.675,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.165,
        0.9
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.626,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.082,
        0.883
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "stepfun",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.604,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.045,
        0.875
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.472,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.14,
        0.823
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "wenxin",
       "rho": 0.386,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.242,
        0.786
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.371,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.258,
        0.779
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.312,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.319,
        0.752
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.28,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.35,
        0.736
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.26,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.369,
        0.726
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": -0.086,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
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        0.513
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "claude",
       "rho": -0.14,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.661,
        0.472
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-21-am",
     "seats": 9,
     "markets": 12,
     "lambda1": 4.477,
     "first_component_share": 0.497,
     "d_pr": 3.28,
     "n_eff_kish": 2.23,
     "rho": 0.379,
     "pair_n_min": 11,
     "pair_n_mean": 11.8,
     "pairs_missing": 0,
     "pairs": [
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.762,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.334,
        0.929
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.737,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.282,
        0.921
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.711,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.232,
        0.913
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.693,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.159,
        0.913
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.669,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.115,
        0.905
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.647,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.116,
        0.89
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.644,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.071,
        0.897
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.639,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.064,
        0.896
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "stepfun",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.621,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.074,
        0.881
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "meta",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.598,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.003,
        0.882
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.594,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.03,
        0.871
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.585,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.017,
        0.868
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.578,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.005,
        0.865
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.551,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.034,
        0.854
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.507,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.095,
        0.837
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "meta",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.501,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.142,
        0.846
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.462,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.152,
        0.819
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.431,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.19,
        0.806
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.424,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.198,
        0.803
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "mimo",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.42,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.203,
        0.801
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "mimo",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.335,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.295,
        0.763
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.321,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.345,
        0.772
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.29,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.341,
        0.741
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.281,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.349,
        0.736
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "claude",
       "rho": 0.267,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.363,
        0.729
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.241,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.387,
        0.716
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.179,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.441,
        0.683
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.177,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.441,
        0.682
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "meta",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.151,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        -0.494,
        0.688
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.07,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.525,
        0.619
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.062,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.531,
        0.614
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": -0.016,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.585,
        0.563
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": -0.033,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.595,
        0.552
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": -0.039,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.6,
        0.547
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": -0.062,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.614,
        0.531
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": -0.341,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        -0.765,
        0.29
       ]
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "run": "2026-10-22-am",
     "seats": 9,
     "markets": 12,
     "lambda1": 6.047,
     "first_component_share": 0.672,
     "d_pr": 1.98,
     "n_eff_kish": 1.6,
     "rho": 0.576,
     "pair_n_min": 11,
     "pair_n_mean": 11.6,
     "pairs_missing": 0,
     "pairs": [
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.963,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.861,
        0.991
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.961,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.854,
        0.99
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "meta",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.959,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.846,
        0.99
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.953,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.826,
        0.988
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.943,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.805,
        0.984
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "meta",
       "rho": 0.91,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.682,
        0.977
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "gemini",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.909,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.68,
        0.976
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "grok",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.895,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.66,
        0.97
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "gemini",
       "rho": 0.875,
       "n": 11,
       "ci95": [
        0.578,
        0.967
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "mimo",
       "rho": 0.867,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.583,
        0.962
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "deepseek",
       "b": "stepfun",
       "rho": 0.867,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.584,
        0.962
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "claude",
       "b": "zai",
       "rho": 0.848,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.534,
        0.957
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "grok",
       "rho": 0.834,
       "n": 12,
       "ci95": [
        0.5,
        0.952
       ]
      },
      {
       "a": "chatgpt",
       "b": "deepseek",
       "rho": 0.791,
       "n": 12,
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