{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "council-strike-ref",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T14:53:53Z",
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. strike_ref = the two strikes of the Kalshi contract (lo, hi) in the contract's own unit; ref = the league's reference price of the same asset and run - two different numbers, never merged. The crowd price p_up is a straight-line interpolation between the two strikes at the venue's own reference and is read as such only when lo <= reference < hi (ref_position inside); outside it, interpolation_valid is false. US10Y moves are given in percentage points and basis points (close - ref, both yields in percent); actual_pct is the change of the level in percent and is not a move in points.",
 "contracts": [
  {
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "run": "2026-10-19-am",
   "asset": "NDX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT19H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 29180.0,
    "hi": 29190.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT19H1600-T29179.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT19H1600-T29189.99",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 29187.549,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 29573.482422,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 385.9334,
   "p_up": 91.1,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-19T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-19 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 29180 and 29190 (index points), ends 2026-10-19 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 29187.549, the league's reference is 29573.482422"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-19",
   "run": "2026-10-19-am",
   "asset": "SPX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXINXU-26OCT19H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 7655.0,
    "hi": 7660.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT19H1600-T7654.9999",
    "hi_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT19H1600-T7659.9999",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 7659.44,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 7700.339844,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 40.8998,
   "p_up": 84.8,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-19T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-19 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "S&P price on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 7655 and 7660 (index points), ends 2026-10-19 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 7659.44, the league's reference is 7700.339844"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "asset": "GOLD",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXGOLDD-26OCT2017",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 4131.0,
    "hi": 4141.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2017-T4131",
    "hi_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2017-T4141",
    "unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
    "reference": 4140.74,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 4135.799805,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -4.9402,
   "p_up": 21.8,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-20T21:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-20 17:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Gold price on Oct 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above the strikes 4131 and 4141 (US dollars per troy ounce), ends 2026-10-20 17:00 ET, the venue's reference is 4140.74, the league's reference is 4135.799805"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "asset": "NDX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT20H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 29520.0,
    "hi": 29530.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT20H1600-T29519.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT20H1600-T29529.99",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 29529.344,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 29370.921875,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -158.4221,
   "p_up": 22.6,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-20T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-20 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 29520 and 29530 (index points), ends 2026-10-20 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 29529.344, the league's reference is 29370.921875"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "asset": "SPX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXINXU-26OCT20H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 7690.0,
    "hi": 7695.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT20H1600-T7689.9999",
    "hi_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT20H1600-T7694.9999",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 7690.73,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 7677.290039,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -13.44,
   "p_up": 31.9,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-20T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-20 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "S&P price on Oct 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 7690 and 7695 (index points), ends 2026-10-20 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 7690.73, the league's reference is 7677.290039"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "asset": "US10Y",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXUST10AD-26OCT20",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 5.15,
    "hi": 5.17,
    "lo_ticker": "KXUST10AD-26OCT20-T5.15",
    "hi_ticker": "KXUST10AD-26OCT20-T5.17",
    "unit": "percent (par yield)",
    "reference": 5.15,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 5.106,
   "ref_unit": "percent (par yield)",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -0.044,
   "p_up": 7.0,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-20T19:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-20 15:30 ET",
   "event_text": "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 20, 2026?: above the strikes 5.15 and 5.17 (percent (par yield)), ends 2026-10-20 15:30 ET, the venue's reference is 5.15, the league's reference is 5.106"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-20",
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "asset": "WTI",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXWTI-26OCT2014",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 98.49,
    "hi": 98.99,
    "lo_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2014-T98.49",
    "hi_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2014-T98.99",
    "unit": "US dollars per barrel",
    "reference": 98.54,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 99.379997,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per barrel",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 0.84,
   "p_up": 80.6,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-20T18:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-20 14:30 ET",
   "event_text": "Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 20, 2026?: above the strikes 98.49 and 98.99 (US dollars per barrel), ends 2026-10-20 14:30 ET, the venue's reference is 98.54, the league's reference is 99.379997"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-21",
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "asset": "GOLD",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXGOLDD-26OCT2117",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 4122.0,
    "hi": 4132.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2117-T4122",
    "hi_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2117-T4132",
    "unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
    "reference": 4125.25,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 4154.899902,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 29.6499,
   "p_up": 59.1,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-21T21:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-21 17:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Gold price on Oct 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above the strikes 4122 and 4132 (US dollars per troy ounce), ends 2026-10-21 17:00 ET, the venue's reference is 4125.25, the league's reference is 4154.899902"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-21",
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "asset": "NDX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT21H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 29490.0,
    "hi": 29500.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT21H1600-T29489.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT21H1600-T29499.99",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 29490.283,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 29704.794922,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 214.5119,
   "p_up": 81.5,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-21 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 29490 and 29500 (index points), ends 2026-10-21 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 29490.283, the league's reference is 29704.794922"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-21",
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "asset": "SPX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXINXU-26OCT21H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 7710.0,
    "hi": 7715.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT21H1600-T7709.9999",
    "hi_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT21H1600-T7714.9999",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 7712.57,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 7733.009766,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 20.4398,
   "p_up": 77.0,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-21T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-21 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "S&P price on Oct 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 7710 and 7715 (index points), ends 2026-10-21 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 7712.57, the league's reference is 7733.009766"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-21",
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "asset": "WTI",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXWTI-26OCT2114",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 97.49,
    "hi": 97.99,
    "lo_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2114-T97.49",
    "hi_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2114-T97.99",
    "unit": "US dollars per barrel",
    "reference": 97.82,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 97.279999,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per barrel",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -0.54,
   "p_up": 56.6,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-21T18:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-21 14:30 ET",
   "event_text": "Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 21, 2026?: above the strikes 97.49 and 97.99 (US dollars per barrel), ends 2026-10-21 14:30 ET, the venue's reference is 97.82, the league's reference is 97.279999"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "asset": "GOLD",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXGOLDD-26OCT2217",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 4133.0,
    "hi": 4143.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2217-T4133",
    "hi_ticker": "KXGOLDD-26OCT2217-T4143",
    "unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
    "reference": 4141.21,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 4095.0,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per troy ounce",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -46.21,
   "p_up": 3.7,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-22T21:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-22 17:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Gold price on Oct 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above the strikes 4133 and 4143 (US dollars per troy ounce), ends 2026-10-22 17:00 ET, the venue's reference is 4141.21, the league's reference is 4095.0"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "asset": "NDX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT22H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 28070.0,
    "hi": 30660.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT22H1600-T28069.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT22H1600-T30659.99",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 29822.518,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 29320.494141,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -502.0239,
   "p_up": 32.5,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-22T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-22 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 28070 and 30660 (index points), ends 2026-10-22 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 29822.518, the league's reference is 29320.494141"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "asset": "SPX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXINXU-26OCT22H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 7755.0,
    "hi": 7760.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT22H1600-T7754.9999",
    "hi_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT22H1600-T7759.9999",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 7757.17,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": 7688.859863,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -68.3101,
   "p_up": 6.6,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-22T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-22 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "S&P price on Oct 22, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 7755 and 7760 (index points), ends 2026-10-22 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 7757.17, the league's reference is 7688.859863"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "asset": "US10Y",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXUST10AD-26OCT22",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 5.13,
    "hi": 5.15,
    "lo_ticker": "KXUST10AD-26OCT22-T5.13",
    "hi_ticker": "KXUST10AD-26OCT22-T5.15",
    "unit": "percent (par yield)",
    "reference": 5.13,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 5.036,
   "ref_unit": "percent (par yield)",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": -0.094,
   "p_up": 2.0,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-22T19:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-22 15:30 ET",
   "event_text": "10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 22, 2026?: above the strikes 5.13 and 5.15 (percent (par yield)), ends 2026-10-22 15:30 ET, the venue's reference is 5.13, the league's reference is 5.036"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-22",
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "asset": "WTI",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXWTI-26OCT2214",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 96.99,
    "hi": 97.49,
    "lo_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2214-T96.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2214-T97.49",
    "unit": "US dollars per barrel",
    "reference": 97.15,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": 99.889999,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per barrel",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": 2.74,
   "p_up": 92.2,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-22T18:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-22 14:30 ET",
   "event_text": "Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 22, 2026?: above the strikes 96.99 and 97.49 (US dollars per barrel), ends 2026-10-22 14:30 ET, the venue's reference is 97.15, the league's reference is 99.889999"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-23",
   "run": "2026-10-23-am",
   "asset": "NDX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT23H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 28950.0,
    "hi": 28960.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT23H1600-T28949.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXNASDAQ100U-26OCT23H1600-T28959.99",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 28958.688,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": null,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": null,
   "p_up": 48.8,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-23T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-23 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 28950 and 28960 (index points), ends 2026-10-23 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 28958.688"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-23",
   "run": "2026-10-23-am",
   "asset": "SPX",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXINXU-26OCT23H1600",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 7660.0,
    "hi": 7665.0,
    "lo_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT23H1600-T7659.9999",
    "hi_ticker": "KXINXU-26OCT23H1600-T7664.9999",
    "unit": "index points",
    "reference": 7663.43,
    "reference_source": null
   },
   "ref": null,
   "ref_unit": "index points",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": null,
   "p_up": 34.9,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-23T20:00:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-23 16:00 ET",
   "event_text": "S&P price on Oct 23, 2026 at 4pm EDT?: above the strikes 7660 and 7665 (index points), ends 2026-10-23 16:00 ET, the venue's reference is 7663.43"
  },
  {
   "session": "2026-10-23",
   "run": "2026-10-23-am",
   "asset": "WTI",
   "contract_id": "kalshi:KXWTI-26OCT2314",
   "strike_ref": {
    "lo": 98.99,
    "hi": 99.49,
    "lo_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2314-T98.99",
    "hi_ticker": "KXWTI-26OCT2314-T99.49",
    "unit": "US dollars per barrel",
    "reference": 99.47,
    "reference_source": "kalshi"
   },
   "ref": null,
   "ref_unit": "US dollars per barrel",
   "ref_position": "inside",
   "interpolation_valid": true,
   "league_ref_minus_reference": null,
   "p_up": 84.8,
   "p_up_unit": "percent, 0-100",
   "ends": "2026-10-23T18:30:00Z",
   "ends_et": "2026-10-23 14:30 ET",
   "event_text": "Oil Price (WTI) on Oct 23, 2026?: above the strikes 98.99 and 99.49 (US dollars per barrel), ends 2026-10-23 14:30 ET, the venue's reference is 99.47"
  }
 ],
 "us10y_moves": [
  {
   "run": "2026-10-19-am",
   "ref_percent": 5.106,
   "close_percent": 5.136,
   "move_percentage_points": 0.03,
   "move_basis_points": 3.0,
   "actual_pct_of_level": 0.588,
   "unit_of_actual_pct": "percent change of the level (not points)"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-20-am",
   "ref_percent": 5.106,
   "close_percent": 5.117,
   "move_percentage_points": 0.011,
   "move_basis_points": 1.1,
   "actual_pct_of_level": 0.215,
   "unit_of_actual_pct": "percent change of the level (not points)"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-21-am",
   "ref_percent": 5.1,
   "close_percent": 5.146,
   "move_percentage_points": 0.046,
   "move_basis_points": 4.6,
   "actual_pct_of_level": 0.902,
   "unit_of_actual_pct": "percent change of the level (not points)"
  },
  {
   "run": "2026-10-22-am",
   "ref_percent": 5.036,
   "close_percent": 4.953,
   "move_percentage_points": -0.083,
   "move_basis_points": -8.3,
   "actual_pct_of_level": -1.648,
   "unit_of_actual_pct": "percent change of the level (not points)"
  }
 ],
 "snapshot_id": "81bb52dea9cac906f145233bc63ec37e702106dd0945b666bf45e980571ee447",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-23-am"
}