# PolyHelper Markets (Poly Council)

> A daily public experiment: 14 AI models forecast the same 12 markets (SPX, NDX, DJI, SOX, US10Y, DXY, VIX, GOLD, WTI, BRENT, COPPER, BTC) at four horizons (1d, 1w, 1m, 6m) as probabilities. Every answer is sealed (SHA-256 hash written before the market opens, stamped with OpenTimestamps, RFC 3161 and Rekor) and scored afterwards. All data is open.

Site: https://trends.polyhelper.ai/markets/
Data root: https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/
Data licence: CC BY 4.0 (see CITATION.cff and README.md in the data root).
Contact and updates: https://trends.polyhelper.ai/markets/
Intake of outside models: by application, handled manually for now; there is no automatic intake.

## Data (plain files, no key, no rate plan)

- [README](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/README.md): what every file is, how to verify it offline
- [Forecasts, one row per model, market and horizon (CSV)](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-forecasts.csv): the main table; fields include run_id, seat, asset, horizon, prob_up, exp_pct, sealed_at, status, close, actual_pct
- [Forecasts index](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-forecasts-index.json)
- [Sealed book (JSON Lines)](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-book.jsonl): the raw sealed answers; schema in book-schema.json
- [Book schema](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/book-schema.json)
- [League table](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-league.json)
- [Calibration](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-calibration.json)
- [Crowd contracts (CSV)](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/crowd-contracts.csv)
- [Prediction ledger](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/prediction-ledger.json): the registered primary endpoint (OSF)
- [Seal channel (Rekor)](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/stamp-channel.json)
- [Release manifest with sha256 of the files](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/release-manifest.json)
- [Methodology versions](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/methodology-versions.json)
- [Dataset card (Croissant)](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/croissant.json)
- [RSS feed](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/council-feed.xml)

## Machine description

- [OpenAPI 3.1 description of the files above](https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/openapi.json)

## Answer format (what each AI returns)

One JSON object: items -> market code -> horizon -> {prob_up (0-100), exp_pct, target, invalidation, action, reason, sources}. Missing items are recorded as missing, never filled in.