{
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "kind": "prediction-ledger",
 "generated": "2026-10-23T02:31:20Z",
 "day": "2026-10-22",
 "n_predictions": 30,
 "registration": {
  "registered": true,
  "registry": "OSF",
  "url": "https://osf.io/9q86n/",
  "doi": "10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N",
  "registered_at": "2026-10-22T05:50:36Z"
 },
 "resolver": {
  "file": "resolve.py",
  "rules_version": "osf-rules-1",
  "filed_with": "the OSF registration",
  "published_in": "tools/osf-rules-1/",
  "read_at": "2026-10-22",
  "resolved": 0
 },
 "versions": {
  "methodology": "methodology-versions.json",
  "claim_status": "claim-status.json"
 },
 "status_counts": {
  "not_yet_due": 30
 },
 "statuses": {
  "came_true": "came true",
  "did_not": "did not",
  "not_yet_due": "not yet due",
  "unresolved": "unresolved"
 },
 "rule": "Dated 22.10.2026. The status uses the words of the paper (Section 8.4): came true, did not, not yet due, unresolved; it is the reading of resolve.py (rules osf-rules-1, tools/osf-rules-1/) on the release; `phase` is the date only: before_window / collecting / check_date_passed. A prediction is never counted as a success unless resolved. Windows run from session 11 (2 November 2026) unless the row names another (F8 from 19 October, F24 from the radar of 1 November). Check dates: 30 November 2026, 31 December 2026, 30 April 2027. `files` = the open files of api/v1 the measure reads, in_api = the file is there now. `data_gap` = what the row still lacks. The registered statements, thresholds and probabilities are in the paper's Appendix D and the OSF registration; nothing is computed here before a check date.",
 "predictions": [
  {
   "id": "F1",
   "title": "The council stays below two independent voices at one day",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.5,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-11-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-11-30). fewer than 10 counted runs",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-stats.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F2",
   "title": "Market co-movement does not explain the likeness",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.5,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 20 counted runs",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-stats.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F3",
   "title": "Errors are shared too",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.74,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 30 scored sessions",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": "a field to be published: N_eff of the error indicators, computed by the filed resolver"
  },
  {
   "id": "F4",
   "title": "Models are less sharp than the crowd",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.4,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 100 contract-sessions",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "crowd-contracts.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-crowd-spread.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F5",
   "title": "Shared links mean shared calls",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.56,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no stratum with both sharing and non-sharing pairs in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-stats.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F6",
   "title": "All wrong together",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.92,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no resolved one-day market-session with at least 4 answering seats",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F7",
   "title": "A right minority is more common than a unanimous error",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.63,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no resolved one-day market-sessions in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F8",
   "title": "The table fills on schedule",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.88,
   "window_start": "2026-10-19",
   "check_date": "2026-11-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "collecting",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-11-30); provisional: refuted. 0 ranked of 14 Council seats",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 4,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F9",
   "title": "Independence is greater at the month than at the day",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.3,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 20 counted runs",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F10",
   "title": "Averaging beats following the leader",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.64,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no ranked Council model over sessions 11 to 30",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F11",
   "title": "No single model shows a detected daily advantage",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.79,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no ranked Council model in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F12",
   "title": "The crowd beats the council",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.83,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 100 market-sessions",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "crowd-contracts.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-crowd-spread.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F13",
   "title": "The combination beats the crowd",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.3,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 100 market-sessions",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "crowd-contracts.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-crowd-spread.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F14",
   "title": "Models are overconfident",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.8,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 100 forecasts in the bucket",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F15",
   "title": "The council does not beat a simple rule by a clear margin",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.8,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no common rows of consensus and momentum",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F16",
   "title": "No horizon carries a detected signal over a season",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.63,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). a horizon has fewer than 2 resolved sessions",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F17",
   "title": "Relative to climatology, the day is the hardest horizon",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.37,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). a horizon has no resolved consensus events",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-calibration.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-clim-window.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F18",
   "title": "Country is a small factor",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.8,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than two ranked models on a side",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F19",
   "title": "The US side scores better over a season",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.57,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). fewer than two ranked models on a side",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F20",
   "title": "The same news means less dispute",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.7,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-11-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-11-30). no Closed Book runs in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "arena-cb-experiment.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F21",
   "title": "Search adds little accuracy",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.72,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). data not yet published: no comparable pairs — Closed Book calls sealed before the common reference, or each closed call's own reference price, close and outcome (e.g. `score` per market)",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": "unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: every Closed Book call was asked after the open and has no outcome from its own reference; it resolves once closed calls sealed before the common reference, or each closed call's own reference price, close and outcome, are published"
  },
  {
   "id": "F22",
   "title": "Discussion finds real risks",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.3,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 20 resolved critiques",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-talk-critiques.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F23",
   "title": "Heeding the critique pays",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.42,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). no criticised portfolio with heed_minus_keep_pp in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-talk.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F24",
   "title": "A model disagrees with itself a lot",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.6,
   "window_start": "2026-11-01",
   "check_date": "2026-11-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-11-30). no repeat week in the window",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-repeats.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F25",
   "title": "Leaders do not last",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.62,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). Q1 2027 not complete",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "league-roster.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F26",
   "title": "The index is hard to beat",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.6,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). season not finished",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "arena-accounts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F27",
   "title": "Good forecasters are not the best traders",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.83,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). season not finished",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-forecasts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "league-roster.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "arena-accounts.csv",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F28",
   "title": "Access to the models before the first forecast does not improve readers' Brier score by 0.01 or more",
   "set": "A",
   "p": 0.46,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). fewer than 200 first forecasts per group",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-league.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-experiment-funnel.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": null
  },
  {
   "id": "F29",
   "title": "Access moves readers toward the council",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.41,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2026-12-31",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2026-12-31). data not yet published: per-reader first forecasts of the experiment (book lines `experiment`, `by_id`) are empty; the agreement of each reader's first forecast with the consensus is not published",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "arena-dataset.json",
     "in_api": true
    },
    {
     "file": "council-experiment-funnel.json",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": "unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: the readers' first forecasts of the experiment are not published as rows (a field to be published and documented in arena-dataset.json)"
  },
  {
   "id": "F30",
   "title": "Style gives the model away",
   "set": "B",
   "p": 0.46,
   "window_start": "2026-11-02",
   "check_date": "2027-04-30",
   "status": "not_yet_due",
   "phase": "before_window",
   "reason": "not yet due (check date 2027-04-30). data not yet published: blind-season answer texts, the post-season reveal and the guesser's outputs are not in the open files; the guesser (model, version, prompt SHA-256) is named in a filed addendum before 2 November 2026",
   "numbers": null,
   "resolved_at": null,
   "counted_runs_in_window": 0,
   "files": [
    {
     "file": "council-book.jsonl",
     "in_api": true
    }
   ],
   "data_gap": "needs the addendum to the registration naming the fixed guesser (filed before 2 November 2026) and the answer lines of the blind season with the post-season reveal"
  }
 ],
 "snapshot_id": "ab060237f6bc02d1c9a6180877ca48ee1085a5db9064b5b3f17eca3785d726f3",
 "snapshot_run": "2026-10-22-am"
}