{"at": "2026-10-13T03:16Z", "day": "2026-10-12/23", "form": "ab", "id": "2026-10-12/23:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "Nasdaq", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 38, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 55, "grok": 70, "kimi": 65, "meta": 65, "qwen": 85, "wenxin": 70, "zai": 65}, "q": "According to wikimedia's pageviews tool, will the English Wikipedia article \"Epic Games\" get more views on October 13, 2026 than on October 12, 2026 (2,259 views)? Checked on 2026-10-14 at 03:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T03:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about Epic Games tomorrow than today?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-30&pages=Epic_Games", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "Under 2,000", "probs": {"chatgpt": 24, "claude": 60, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 65, "grok": 55, "kimi": 35, "meta": 60, "qwen": 90, "wenxin": 60, "zai": 62}, "q": "According to wikimedia's pageviews tool, will the English Wikipedia article \"Epic Games\" get 2,000 or more views on October 14, 2026? Checked on 2026-10-15 at 03:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T03:00Z", "short": "Will Epic Games' Wikipedia page get 2,000 views on October 14?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-30&pages=Epic_Games", "yes": "2,000 or more"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Nasdaq", "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 48, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 45, "grok": 35, "kimi": 65, "meta": 40, "qwen": 65, "wenxin": 45, "zai": 50}, "q": "On October 13, 2026, will Disney's share price change by a bigger percentage than the Nasdaq Composite stock index, comparing each one's close on October 13 with its close on October 12? Checked on Google Finance on 2026-10-13 at 21:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T21:00Z", "short": "Tomorrow, will Disney's shares beat the tech stock market?", "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DIS:NYSE", "yes": "Disney"}], "pick": 2, "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 48, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 45, "grok": 35, "kimi": 65, "meta": 40, "qwen": 65, "wenxin": 45, "zai": 50}, "q": "On October 13, 2026, will Disney's share price change by a bigger percentage than the Nasdaq Composite stock index, comparing each one's close on October 13 with its close on October 12? Checked on Google Finance on 2026-10-13 at 21:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T21:00Z", "short": "Tomorrow, will Disney's shares beat the tech stock market?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DIS:NYSE", "yes": "Disney"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T03:43Z", "day": "2026-10-12/23", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-12/23:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "Under 2,000", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 38, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 55, "grok": 70, "kimi": 65, "meta": 65, "qwen": 85, "wenxin": 70, "zai": 65}, "q": "According to wikimedia's pageviews tool, will the English Wikipedia article \"Epic Games\" get more views on October 13, 2026 than on October 12, 2026 (2,259 views)? Checked on 2026-10-14 at 03:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T03:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about Epic Games tomorrow than today?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-30&pages=Epic_Games", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "Under 2,000", "probs": {"chatgpt": 24, "claude": 60, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 65, "grok": 55, "kimi": 35, "meta": 60, "qwen": 90, "wenxin": 60, "zai": 62}, "q": "According to wikimedia's pageviews tool, will the English Wikipedia article \"Epic Games\" get 2,000 or more views on October 14, 2026? Checked on 2026-10-15 at 03:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T03:00Z", "short": "Will Epic Games' Wikipedia page get 2,000 views on October 14?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-30&pages=Epic_Games", "yes": "2,000 or more"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Nasdaq", "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 48, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 45, "grok": 35, "kimi": 65, "meta": 40, "qwen": 65, "wenxin": 45, "zai": 50}, "q": "On October 13, 2026, will Disney's share price change by a bigger percentage than the Nasdaq Composite stock index, comparing each one's close on October 13 with its close on October 12? Checked on Google Finance on 2026-10-13 at 21:00 UTC.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-13T21:00Z", "short": "Tomorrow, will Disney's shares beat the tech stock market?", "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DIS:NYSE", "yes": "Disney"}], "pick": 1, "probs": {"chatgpt": 24, "claude": 60, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 65, "grok": 55, "kimi": 35, "meta": 60, "qwen": 90, "wenxin": 60, "zai": 62}, "q": "According to wikimedia's pageviews tool, will the English Wikipedia article \"Epic Games\" get 2,000 or more views on October 14, 2026? Checked on 2026-10-15 at 03:00 UTC.", "repick": true, "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T03:00Z", "short": "Will Epic Games' Wikipedia page get 2,000 views on October 14?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-30&pages=Epic_Games", "yes": "2,000 or more"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T04:09Z", "day": "2026-10-13/00", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/00:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "claude": 51, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 55, "grok": 55, "kimi": 46, "meta": 55, "mimo": 48, "qwen": 60, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will Meta Platforms' share price (Nasdaq ticker META) close higher on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026, by the official Nasdaq closing price?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will Meta's share price end higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/historical", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "updown", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 28, "claude": 30, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 60, "grok": 32, "kimi": 30, "meta": 30, "mimo": 35, "qwen": 85, "zai": 25}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article \"Meta AI\" get more views on October 14, 2026 (UTC day) than on October 13, 2026, by the Wikimedia pageviews tool (all access, user agents)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T06:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about Meta's AI on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-20&pages=Meta_AI", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Google", "probs": {"chatgpt": 51, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 50, "grok": 53, "kimi": 52, "meta": 60, "mimo": 50, "qwen": 65, "zai": 52}, "q": "Which share gains more (or loses less) in percent from the October 13 close to the October 14, 2026 close by the official Nasdaq closing prices: Meta Platforms (META) or Alphabet, Google's owner (GOOGL)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Whose share price does better on Wednesday: Meta or Google?", "source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/historical", "yes": "Meta"}], "pick": 1, "probs": {"chatgpt": 28, "claude": 30, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 60, "grok": 32, "kimi": 30, "meta": 30, "mimo": 35, "qwen": 85, "zai": 25}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article \"Meta AI\" get more views on October 14, 2026 (UTC day) than on October 13, 2026, by the Wikimedia pageviews tool (all access, user agents)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T06:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about Meta's AI on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-20&pages=Meta_AI", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T05:21Z", "day": "2026-10-13/01", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/01:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "grok": "Grok", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 30, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 55, "grok": 32, "meta": 68, "mimo": 55, "nova": 70, "qwen": 45, "wenxin": 68, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the US Treasury's official 10-year rate for October 13, 2026 (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, '10 Yr' column) be higher than the October 9 value of 5.24%? A value of 5.24% or lower counts as Lower. Settled when the Treasury posts the October 13 value, by 2026-10-14T01:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "short": "Will the US government's 10-year borrowing rate rise today?", "source": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will the average US home loan rate stay at 7.4% or higher on Thursday?", "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 53, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 50, "grok": 58, "meta": 61, "mimo": 28, "nova": 55, "qwen": 40, "wenxin": 52, "zai": 40}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article 'United States Treasury security' get more views on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026 (UTC days, all access, users only)? Equal counts as Lower. Settled on the Wikimedia pageviews tool by 2026-10-15T12:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T12:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about US government bonds on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&start=2026-10-13&end=2026-10-14&pages=United_States_Treasury_security", "yes": "Higher"}], "pick": 1, "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will the average US home loan rate stay at 7.4% or higher on Thursday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "grok": "US", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T05:25Z", "day": "2026-10-13/00", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/00:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "claude": 51, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 55, "grok": 55, "kimi": 46, "meta": 55, "mimo": 48, "qwen": 60, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will Meta Platforms' share price (Nasdaq ticker META) close higher on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026, by the official Nasdaq closing price?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will Facebook maker Meta's share price end higher Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/historical", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "updown", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 28, "claude": 30, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 60, "grok": 32, "kimi": 30, "meta": 30, "mimo": 35, "qwen": 85, "zai": 25}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article \"Meta AI\" get more views on October 14, 2026 (UTC day) than on October 13, 2026, by the Wikimedia pageviews tool (all access, user agents)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T06:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about Meta's AI on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&range=latest-20&pages=Meta_AI", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Google", "probs": {"chatgpt": 51, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 50, "grok": 53, "kimi": 52, "meta": 60, "mimo": 50, "qwen": 65, "zai": 52}, "q": "Which share gains more (or loses less) in percent from the October 13 close to the October 14, 2026 close by the official Nasdaq closing prices: Meta Platforms (META) or Alphabet, Google's owner (GOOGL)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Whose share price does better on Wednesday: Meta or Google?", "source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/historical", "yes": "Meta"}], "pick": 0, "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "claude": 51, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 55, "grok": 55, "kimi": 46, "meta": 55, "mimo": 48, "qwen": 60, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will Meta Platforms' share price (Nasdaq ticker META) close higher on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026, by the official Nasdaq closing price?", "repick": true, "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will Facebook maker Meta's share price end higher Wednesday than Tuesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/meta/historical", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T05:26Z", "day": "2026-10-13/01", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/01:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "grok": "Grok", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 30, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 55, "grok": 32, "meta": 68, "mimo": 55, "nova": 70, "qwen": 45, "wenxin": 68, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the US Treasury's official 10-year rate for October 13, 2026 (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, '10 Yr' column) be higher than the October 9 value of 5.24%? A value of 5.24% or lower counts as Lower. Settled when the Treasury posts the October 13 value, by 2026-10-14T01:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "short": "Will the US government's 10-year borrowing rate rise today?", "source": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will American home loans stay as pricey or get pricier on Thursday?", "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 53, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 50, "grok": 58, "meta": 61, "mimo": 28, "nova": 55, "qwen": 40, "wenxin": 52, "zai": 40}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article 'United States Treasury security' get more views on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026 (UTC days, all access, users only)? Equal counts as Lower. Settled on the Wikimedia pageviews tool by 2026-10-15T12:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T12:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about US government bonds on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&start=2026-10-13&end=2026-10-14&pages=United_States_Treasury_security", "yes": "Higher"}], "pick": 1, "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "repick": true, "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will American home loans stay as pricey or get pricier on Thursday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "grok": "US", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T05:27Z", "day": "2026-10-13/01", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/01:duel", "kind": "duel", "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "grok": "Grok", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 30, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 55, "grok": 32, "meta": 68, "mimo": 55, "nova": 70, "qwen": 45, "wenxin": 68, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the US Treasury's official 10-year rate for October 13, 2026 (Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, '10 Yr' column) be higher than the October 9 value of 5.24%? A value of 5.24% or lower counts as Lower. Settled when the Treasury posts the October 13 value, by 2026-10-14T01:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "short": "Will the US government's 10-year borrowing rate rise today?", "source": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will American home loans stay this expensive on Thursday?", "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "probs": {"chatgpt": 53, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 50, "grok": 58, "meta": 61, "mimo": 28, "nova": 55, "qwen": 40, "wenxin": 52, "zai": 40}, "q": "Will the English Wikipedia article 'United States Treasury security' get more views on October 14, 2026 than on October 13, 2026 (UTC days, all access, users only)? Equal counts as Lower. Settled on the Wikimedia pageviews tool by 2026-10-15T12:00Z.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T12:00Z", "short": "Will more people read about US government bonds on Wikipedia Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://pageviews.wmcloud.org/?project=en.wikipedia.org&platform=all-access&agent=user&start=2026-10-13&end=2026-10-14&pages=United_States_Treasury_security", "yes": "Higher"}], "pick": 1, "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "claude": 18, "deepseek": 70, "grok": 42, "meta": 74, "mimo": 65, "nova": 25, "qwen": 75, "wenxin": 32, "zai": 60}, "q": "Will Freddie Mac's weekly survey released on Thursday, October 15, 2026 show an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.40% or higher (last week: 7.40%)? Settled by the release on the Freddie Mac survey page, by 2026-10-15T17:00Z.", "repick": true, "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T17:00Z", "short": "Will American home loans stay this expensive on Thursday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "grok": "US", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T14:24Z", "day": "2026-10-13/10", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/10:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "4e9cfe88276e1e5001c085f542c023b2101f055b3d9b201aef5521542d1f90c1", "n": 8, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$10.47", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$10.47", "probs": {"chatgpt": 55, "deepseek": 65, "gemini": 40, "grok": 40, "kimi": 45, "meta": 45, "nova": 70, "qwen": 30, "wenxin": 70, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will Six Flags Entertainment's share (New York Stock Exchange: FUN) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its closing price on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as shown by Yahoo Finance historical data?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:30Z", "short": "Will Six Flags' share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FUN/history/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$10.47", "probs": {"chatgpt": 49, "deepseek": 30, "gemini": 45, "grok": 45, "kimi": 50, "meta": 70, "nova": 25, "qwen": 40, "wenxin": 25, "zai": 45}, "q": "Will Six Flags Entertainment's share (New York Stock Exchange: FUN) close at $10.50 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026, as shown by Yahoo Finance historical data?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T20:30Z", "short": "Will Six Flags' share price be $10.50 or more on Friday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FUN/history/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "SeaWorld", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 43, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 35, "grok": 30, "kimi": 55, "meta": 55, "nova": 55, "qwen": 20, "wenxin": 55, "zai": 45}, "q": "From the close on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, to the close on Friday, October 16, 2026, which share does better in percent: Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) or SeaWorld's owner United Parks & Resorts (PRKS), as shown by Yahoo Finance historical data?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T20:30Z", "short": "Which share does better by Friday: Six Flags or SeaWorld?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRKS/history/", "yes": "Six Flags"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 55, "deepseek": 65, "gemini": 40, "grok": 40, "kimi": 45, "meta": 45, "nova": 70, "qwen": 30, "wenxin": 70, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will Six Flags Entertainment's share (New York Stock Exchange: FUN) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its closing price on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as shown by Yahoo Finance historical data?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:30Z", "seal": "28503cb25393ec6c04f07d84240c241f96715230b9f3d7016092208b80dd82aa", "short": "Will Six Flags' share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FUN/history/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T15:35Z", "day": "2026-10-13/11", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/11:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "68708de63c4c620fcfed5819b7b8cc84832e0985486f1a84640725328df969ea", "n": 9, "name": {"deepseek": "DeepSeek", "grok": "Grok", "meta": "Meta AI", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "perplexity": "Perplexity", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$269.36", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$269.36", "probs": {"deepseek": 50, "grok": 52, "meta": 55, "nova": 70, "perplexity": 55, "qwen": 55, "wenxin": 65, "zai": 52}, "q": "Will Garmin's share price close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, by the daily closes on stockanalysis.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T21:00Z", "short": "Will Garmin's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/grmn/history/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$269.36", "probs": {"deepseek": 40, "grok": 35, "meta": 40, "nova": 25, "perplexity": 30, "qwen": 60, "wenxin": 20, "zai": 48}, "q": "Will Garmin's share price close at $270.00 or more on Friday, October 16, 2026, by the daily close on stockanalysis.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T21:00Z", "short": "Will Garmin's share price be $270 or more on Friday?", "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/grmn/history/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Apple", "now": "", "probs": {"deepseek": 45, "grok": 42, "meta": 55, "nova": 55, "perplexity": 52, "qwen": 55, "wenxin": 52, "zai": 50}, "q": "Which share price rises more (or falls less) in percent on Thursday, October 15, 2026, from Wednesday's close to Thursday's close: Garmin or Apple, by the daily closes on stockanalysis.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T21:00Z", "short": "Which grows more on Thursday: Garmin's share price or Apple's?", "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/grmn/history/", "yes": "Garmin"}], "pick": 1, "prev": "4e9cfe88276e1e5001c085f542c023b2101f055b3d9b201aef5521542d1f90c1", "probs": {"deepseek": 40, "grok": 35, "meta": 40, "nova": 25, "perplexity": 30, "qwen": 60, "wenxin": 20, "zai": 48}, "q": "Will Garmin's share price close at $270.00 or more on Friday, October 16, 2026, by the daily close on stockanalysis.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T21:00Z", "seal": "9c23f1a2601cde03b29e16209d054df4643ce390cb5f526ce62002e82c76703d", "short": "Will Garmin's share price be $270 or more on Friday?", "side": {"deepseek": "CN", "grok": "US", "meta": "US", "nova": "US", "perplexity": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/grmn/history/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T16:36Z", "day": "2026-10-13/12", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/12:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "fd044ee052ae1ed89dedb2e1b94033e633cea36ea608e96f9ed54a0271f31831", "n": 10, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "qwen": "Qwen", "wenxin": "Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)"}, "no": "No", "now": "HK$72.25", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "HK$72.25", "probs": {"chatgpt": 48, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 55, "kimi": 56, "meta": 68, "qwen": 60, "wenxin": 68}, "q": "Will BYD's Hong Kong share price (stock code 1211) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, by the Hong Kong stock exchange closing price?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T08:30Z", "short": "Will the Chinese electric carmaker BYD's share price rise on Wednesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1211.HK/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$376.64", "probs": {"chatgpt": 44, "claude": 46, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 55, "kimi": 52, "meta": 40, "qwen": 40, "wenxin": 22}, "q": "Will Tesla's share price close at $378.00 or more on Friday, October 16, 2026, on the US stock market?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T20:30Z", "short": "Will Tesla's share price be $378 or more on Friday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Xiaomi", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 47, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 40, "gemini": 50, "kimi": 56, "meta": 60, "qwen": 55, "wenxin": 52}, "q": "Which share does better in Hong Kong on Thursday, October 15, 2026: BYD (stock code 1211) or Xiaomi (stock code 1810)? We compare the percent change from Wednesday's closing price to Thursday's closing price.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T08:30Z", "short": "Which share price does better on Thursday: BYD or Xiaomi?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1810.HK/", "yes": "BYD"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "68708de63c4c620fcfed5819b7b8cc84832e0985486f1a84640725328df969ea", "probs": {"chatgpt": 48, "claude": 47, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 55, "kimi": 56, "meta": 68, "qwen": 60, "wenxin": 68}, "q": "Will BYD's Hong Kong share price (stock code 1211) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, by the Hong Kong stock exchange closing price?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T08:30Z", "seal": "b22106a5f74dc25e20b20787947a5bd1ebc74fed5e85818143a06bccf4a0a42d", "short": "Will the Chinese electric carmaker BYD's share price rise on Wednesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "qwen": "CN", "wenxin": "CN"}, "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/1211.HK/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T17:42Z", "day": "2026-10-13/13", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/13:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "8916f7a22391be51d17c452dcd02f1204e1d043ffe12fbd44764041a2c18f009", "n": 11, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$1,892", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$1,892", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 52, "grok": 48, "kimi": 52, "meta": 55, "mimo": 50, "nova": 60, "qwen": 55, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will MercadoLibre's share price (Nasdaq: MELI) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as shown on Google Finance? An unchanged close counts as no.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:30Z", "short": "Will the online shop Mercado Libre's share price rise on Wednesday?", "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MELI:NASDAQ", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "1,550 pesos", "probs": {"chatgpt": 63, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 60, "grok": 52, "kimi": 42, "meta": 55, "mimo": 35, "nova": 40, "qwen": 60, "zai": 40}, "q": "Will the Argentine street-market dollar (dólar blue) have a selling price of 1,550 pesos or more on DolarHoy at the close on Friday, October 16, 2026?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T21:00Z", "short": "Will Argentina's street dollar cost 1,550 pesos or more on Friday?", "source": "https://dolarhoy.com/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Nubank", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 55, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 51, "grok": 68, "kimi": 52, "meta": 52, "mimo": 52, "nova": 55, "qwen": 52, "zai": 53}, "q": "Which share gains more (or falls less) in percent on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, close to close: MercadoLibre (Nasdaq: MELI) or Nu Holdings, the owner of Nubank (New York Stock Exchange: NU), as shown on Google Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:30Z", "short": "Which share does better on Wednesday: Mercado Libre or Nubank?", "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NU:NYSE", "yes": "Mercado Libre"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "fd044ee052ae1ed89dedb2e1b94033e633cea36ea608e96f9ed54a0271f31831", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 52, "grok": 48, "kimi": 52, "meta": 55, "mimo": 50, "nova": 60, "qwen": 55, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will MercadoLibre's share price (Nasdaq: MELI) close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, as shown on Google Finance? An unchanged close counts as no.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:30Z", "seal": "936c6e9d7569dd245b8091a5845dcf357491b5965f1094f86d18dc73a2a6ab22", "short": "Will the online shop Mercado Libre's share price rise on Wednesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MELI:NASDAQ", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T18:45Z", "day": "2026-10-13/14", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/14:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "54ee361c22158986b8c43b45fae4ad1dad2730aef8ab139958086fac42e621cd", "n": 12, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nova": "Amazon Nova", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "1°C", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "1°C", "probs": {"chatgpt": 66, "claude": 45, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 15, "kimi": 50, "meta": 52, "mimo": 45, "nova": 60, "qwen": 45, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will the highest daytime temperature in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, on Saturday, October 17, 2026 be higher than on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to the past-weather page of the weather website timeanddate.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T18:00Z", "short": "Will the Siberian city Krasnoyarsk be warmer on Saturday than Friday?", "source": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/krasnoyarsk/historic", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "1°C", "probs": {"chatgpt": 65, "claude": 35, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 85, "kimi": 72, "meta": 70, "mimo": 50, "nova": 30, "qwen": 85, "zai": 70}, "q": "Will the highest daytime temperature in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, on Thursday, October 15, 2026 be 3°C or more, according to the past-weather page of the weather website timeanddate.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T18:00Z", "short": "Will Krasnoyarsk, where bears killed seven people, reach 3°C on Thursday?", "source": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/krasnoyarsk/historic", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Gorno-Altaysk", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 62, "claude": 55, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 60, "kimi": 30, "meta": 35, "mimo": 42, "nova": 50, "qwen": 40, "zai": 45}, "q": "Which city will have the higher daytime temperature on Friday, October 16, 2026: Irkutsk (near Lake Baikal, where bear curfews were set) or Gorno-Altaysk (capital of the Altai region, where bears were hunted), according to the past-weather pages of the weather website timeanddate.com (https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/irkutsk/historic and https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/gorno-altaysk/historic)? A tie counts as Gorno-Altaysk.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T18:00Z", "short": "Which bear-hit Siberian city is warmer on Friday: Irkutsk or Gorno-Altaysk?", "source": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/irkutsk/historic", "yes": "Irkutsk"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "8916f7a22391be51d17c452dcd02f1204e1d043ffe12fbd44764041a2c18f009", "probs": {"chatgpt": 66, "claude": 45, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 15, "kimi": 50, "meta": 52, "mimo": 45, "nova": 60, "qwen": 45, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will the highest daytime temperature in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, on Saturday, October 17, 2026 be higher than on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to the past-weather page of the weather website timeanddate.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-17T18:00Z", "seal": "84236618bb9e8b1daa3f9ff36f4041601e50d92f184b18c6ec5d668d0fabb7e4", "short": "Will the Siberian city Krasnoyarsk be warmer on Saturday than Friday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nova": "US", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/russia/krasnoyarsk/historic", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T20:27Z", "day": "2026-10-13/16", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/16:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "7bb3629803c3f8bba477e014bad548cec66470c58a9e06ebdbc2104688d14b84", "n": 13, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$353.78", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$353.78", "probs": {"chatgpt": 53, "claude": 48, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 60, "grok": 60, "kimi": 52, "meta": 58, "mimo": 55, "qwen": 60, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will the Class A share of Alphabet, Google's parent company (GOOGL), close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 than its close of $353.78 on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, by the regular-session close on Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will Google's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$353.78", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "claude": 40, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 45, "grok": 40, "kimi": 46, "meta": 52, "mimo": 45, "qwen": 40, "zai": 70}, "q": "Will the Class A share of Alphabet, Google's parent company (GOOGL), close at $356.00 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026, by the regular-session close on Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T20:00Z", "short": "Will Google's share price reach $356 by Friday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Microsoft", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 54, "claude": 48, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 50, "grok": 55, "kimi": 56, "meta": 62, "mimo": 57, "qwen": 65, "zai": 45}, "q": "Which share gains more (or loses less) in percent on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, from the October 13 close to the October 14 regular-session close on Yahoo Finance: Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Whose share price does better on Wednesday: Google or Microsoft?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/", "yes": "Google"}], "pick": 1, "prev": "54ee361c22158986b8c43b45fae4ad1dad2730aef8ab139958086fac42e621cd", "probs": {"chatgpt": 52, "claude": 40, "deepseek": 60, "gemini": 45, "grok": 40, "kimi": 46, "meta": 52, "mimo": 45, "qwen": 40, "zai": 70}, "q": "Will the Class A share of Alphabet, Google's parent company (GOOGL), close at $356.00 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026, by the regular-session close on Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T20:00Z", "seal": "d8c75073dde5a5cb494eccb18ab4dd719d09e3d048ff882d093ee42de9a6cabd", "short": "Will Google's share price reach $356 by Friday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T21:34Z", "day": "2026-10-13/17", "form": "ab", "id": "2026-10-13/17:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "b4590408ca9ab703aab545115d60e73e8824a3b9208b202bcf11b45b9002e9d8", "n": 14, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "Lower", "now": "Tuesday's close", "probs": {"chatgpt": 49, "claude": 50, "deepseek": 20, "gemini": 45, "grok": 45, "kimi": 50, "meta": 52, "mimo": 50, "qwen": 50, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will the share price of the sportswear maker Nike close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 than on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T21:30Z", "short": "Will Nike's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/history/", "yes": "Higher"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "No", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 58, "deepseek": 58, "gemini": 60, "grok": 58, "kimi": 45, "meta": 58, "mimo": 42, "qwen": 55, "zai": 50}, "q": "Which team will win Thursday Night Football on October 15, 2026, the Seattle Seahawks or the Denver Broncos, according to the NFL.com final score?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T05:00Z", "short": "Will Seattle's football team beat Denver's team on Thursday?", "source": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/REG6/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 49, "claude": 43, "deepseek": 50, "gemini": 50, "grok": 42, "kimi": 55, "meta": 42, "mimo": 45, "qwen": 50, "zai": 52}, "q": "Will the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos score 43 points or more in total in their game on October 15, 2026, according to the NFL.com final score?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T05:00Z", "short": "Will Thursday's game have 43 points or more in total?", "source": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/REG6/", "yes": "Yes"}], "pick": 1, "prev": "7bb3629803c3f8bba477e014bad548cec66470c58a9e06ebdbc2104688d14b84", "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 58, "deepseek": 58, "gemini": 60, "grok": 58, "kimi": 45, "meta": 58, "mimo": 42, "qwen": 55, "zai": 50}, "q": "Which team will win Thursday Night Football on October 15, 2026, the Seattle Seahawks or the Denver Broncos, according to the NFL.com final score?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T05:00Z", "seal": "24c46cc2cd268c845c3189a07f81c50a05bd0776b136ea6a855d88931dab2ac7", "short": "Will Seattle's football team beat Denver's team on Thursday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/REG6/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T22:35Z", "day": "2026-10-13/18", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/18:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "9a574f392e0704c71b11406c72e3057a564c7978151b2b691947a4fc7b3b8566", "n": 15, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$4.34", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$105.69", "probs": {"chatgpt": 56, "claude": 60, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 45, "grok": 55, "kimi": 68, "meta": 58, "mimo": 55, "qwen": 65, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the front-month Brent crude oil futures contract settle higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its Tuesday, October 13 settlement of $105.69, by the ICE Futures Europe settlement as reported by CNBC?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will the price of oil be higher on Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$4.34", "probs": {"chatgpt": 68, "claude": 42, "deepseek": 25, "gemini": 60, "grok": 75, "kimi": 58, "meta": 78, "mimo": 12, "qwen": 85, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the AAA (American Automobile Association) national average price of regular petrol, shown on gasprices.aaa.com on Friday, October 16, 2026, be $4.32 per gallon or more?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T12:00Z", "short": "Will petrol in America cost $4.32 a gallon or more on Friday?", "source": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Gold", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 57, "claude": 57, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 40, "grok": 60, "kimi": 72, "meta": 52, "mimo": 55, "qwen": 60, "zai": 52}, "q": "Which will rise more in percent on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, compared with the Tuesday, October 13 settlement: front-month Brent crude oil futures (ICE) or front-month gold futures (COMEX)? Settlement prices as shown by CNBC; the bigger percentage change wins, and a smaller fall counts as rising more.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T21:00Z", "short": "Which will rise more on Wednesday: oil or gold?", "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1", "yes": "Oil"}], "pick": 1, "prev": "b4590408ca9ab703aab545115d60e73e8824a3b9208b202bcf11b45b9002e9d8", "probs": {"chatgpt": 68, "claude": 42, "deepseek": 25, "gemini": 60, "grok": 75, "kimi": 58, "meta": 78, "mimo": 12, "qwen": 85, "zai": 55}, "q": "Will the AAA (American Automobile Association) national average price of regular petrol, shown on gasprices.aaa.com on Friday, October 16, 2026, be $4.32 per gallon or more?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T12:00Z", "seal": "bb854308d0099e9fd38a1b86e1d65f4c56ce46e55a8466d26330767162d6b37b", "short": "Will petrol in America cost $4.32 a gallon or more on Friday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-13T23:35Z", "day": "2026-10-13/19", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/19:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "72ba309564ba97ce224360d2fdf3dc9e5045108c471170475723cdbe77498036", "n": 16, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nemotron": "Nemotron + Mercury (поиск)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$24.33", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$24.33", "probs": {"chatgpt": 49, "claude": 52, "kimi": 54, "meta": 52, "mimo": 48, "nemotron": 50, "qwen": 55, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will Sony's share (New York Stock Exchange: SONY), the maker of PlayStation, close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 than its close of $24.33 on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T21:00Z", "short": "Will PlayStation maker Sony's share price be higher on Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONY/history", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "$16.80", "probs": {"chatgpt": 54, "claude": 52, "kimi": 55, "meta": 55, "mimo": 58, "nemotron": 55, "qwen": 52, "zai": 52}, "q": "Will Mattel's share (Nasdaq: MAT), the toy company that owns He-Man, close at $16.80 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-16T21:00Z", "short": "Will He-Man's toy maker Mattel stay this pricey on Friday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAT/history", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Microsoft", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 45, "claude": 54, "kimi": 45, "meta": 48, "mimo": 45, "nemotron": 45, "qwen": 35, "zai": 50}, "q": "Which share grows more, in percent, from the close on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 to the close on Thursday, October 15, 2026: PlayStation maker Sony (New York Stock Exchange: SONY) or Xbox maker Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), according to Yahoo Finance? A smaller fall counts as growing more.", "resolve_at": "2026-10-15T21:00Z", "short": "Which grows more by Thursday: PlayStation's Sony or Xbox's Microsoft?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONY/history", "yes": "Sony"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "9a574f392e0704c71b11406c72e3057a564c7978151b2b691947a4fc7b3b8566", "probs": {"chatgpt": 49, "claude": 52, "kimi": 54, "meta": 52, "mimo": 48, "nemotron": 50, "qwen": 55, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will Sony's share (New York Stock Exchange: SONY), the maker of PlayStation, close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 than its close of $24.33 on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T21:00Z", "seal": "c611492e5d2ce9f5d8c7ae8e224f11f1d98108f692793ab03ffd8ef936e15206", "short": "Will PlayStation maker Sony's share price be higher on Wednesday than Tuesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nemotron": "US", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONY/history", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-14T00:34Z", "day": "2026-10-13/20", "form": "threshold", "id": "2026-10-13/20:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "b662aa0c29951a68ef7ef28920ac3aa41c2105003c24abcae9406d8f2f6b3fd1", "n": 17, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "nemotron": "Nemotron + Mercury (поиск)", "stepfun": "Step 5 Preview", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "2.5 goals per game expected", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$21.08", "probs": {"chatgpt": 48, "claude": 40, "deepseek": 40, "grok": 32, "kimi": 42, "meta": 40, "mimo": 45, "nemotron": 35, "stepfun": 45, "zai": 45}, "q": "Will Manchester United's share price on the New York Stock Exchange close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 than its close of $21.08 on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, by the closing price on stockanalysis.com?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will Manchester United's share price be higher on Wednesday than Tuesday?", "source": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/manu/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "threshold", "no": "No", "now": "2.5 goals per game expected", "probs": {"chatgpt": 58, "claude": 52, "deepseek": 60, "grok": 61, "kimi": 58, "meta": 55, "mimo": 55, "nemotron": 45, "stepfun": 50, "zai": 57}, "q": "Will the Premier League match between Leeds United and Manchester United on Sunday, October 18, 2026 end with 3 or more goals in total, by the final score on ESPN?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-18T15:30Z", "short": "Will Sunday's Leeds against Manchester United game have three goals or more?", "source": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/360/manchester-united", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "No", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 37, "claude": 32, "deepseek": 35, "grok": 27, "kimi": 34, "meta": 35, "mimo": 35, "nemotron": 30, "stepfun": 40, "zai": 45}, "q": "Will Manchester United win their Premier League match away at Leeds United on Sunday, October 18, 2026 (a draw or a loss counts as no), by the final score on ESPN?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-18T15:30Z", "short": "Will Manchester United win at Leeds on Sunday?", "source": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/360/manchester-united", "yes": "Yes"}], "pick": 1, "prev": "72ba309564ba97ce224360d2fdf3dc9e5045108c471170475723cdbe77498036", "probs": {"chatgpt": 58, "claude": 52, "deepseek": 60, "grok": 61, "kimi": 58, "meta": 55, "mimo": 55, "nemotron": 45, "stepfun": 50, "zai": 57}, "q": "Will the Premier League match between Leeds United and Manchester United on Sunday, October 18, 2026 end with 3 or more goals in total, by the final score on ESPN?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-18T15:30Z", "seal": "9dec81334c365f8650fb465e6aecb8676154d16acf2e050f02e978e85a61af31", "short": "Will Sunday's Leeds against Manchester United game have three goals or more?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "nemotron": "US", "stepfun": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://www.espn.com/soccer/team/fixtures/_/id/360/manchester-united", "yes": "Yes"}
{"at": "2026-10-14T01:30Z", "day": "2026-10-13/21", "form": "updown", "id": "2026-10-13/21:duel", "kind": "duel", "link": "3379d4cd6c07d2663c775f13913270f895adac6ba0c8886ef80e4e803cff0d85", "n": 18, "name": {"chatgpt": "ChatGPT", "claude": "Claude", "deepseek": "DeepSeek", "gemini": "Gemini", "grok": "Grok", "kimi": "Kimi", "meta": "Meta AI", "mimo": "MiMo (Xiaomi)", "qwen": "Qwen", "zai": "Z.ai"}, "no": "No", "now": "$155.82", "options": [{"form": "updown", "no": "No", "now": "$155.82", "probs": {"chatgpt": 51, "claude": 50, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 50, "grok": 49, "kimi": 55, "meta": 55, "mimo": 50, "qwen": 50, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will AstraZeneca's share price on the New York Stock Exchange close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its Tuesday, October 13 close of $155.82, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "short": "Will lung cancer drug maker AstraZeneca's share price rise on Wednesday?", "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AZN/", "yes": "Yes"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Home", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 88, "claude": 87, "deepseek": 70, "gemini": 30, "grok": 72, "kimi": 40, "meta": 70, "mimo": 55, "qwen": 15, "zai": 30}, "q": "As of 09:00 UTC on Sunday, October 18, 2026, will Pope Leo XIV still be in Rome's Gemelli hospital, or will he have gone back to the Vatican, according to the Vatican's news site (vaticannews.va)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-18T09:00Z", "short": "Where will the Pope be on Sunday: in hospital or back home?", "source": "https://www.vaticannews.va/en.html", "yes": "Hospital"}, {"form": "ab", "no": "Only words", "now": "", "probs": {"chatgpt": 42, "claude": 60, "deepseek": 55, "gemini": 30, "grok": 22, "kimi": 30, "meta": 35, "mimo": 30, "qwen": 20, "zai": 40}, "q": "At the Sunday noon prayer on October 18, 2026, will Pope Leo XIV appear to the public in person (at a window, live on video or on a balcony), or will only a written message be read out for him, according to the Vatican's news site (vaticannews.va)?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-18T11:00Z", "short": "On Sunday, will the Pope greet people himself or only send words?", "source": "https://www.vaticannews.va/en.html", "yes": "Himself"}], "pick": 0, "prev": "b662aa0c29951a68ef7ef28920ac3aa41c2105003c24abcae9406d8f2f6b3fd1", "probs": {"chatgpt": 51, "claude": 50, "deepseek": 45, "gemini": 50, "grok": 49, "kimi": 55, "meta": 55, "mimo": 50, "qwen": 50, "zai": 50}, "q": "Will AstraZeneca's share price on the New York Stock Exchange close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its Tuesday, October 13 close of $155.82, according to Yahoo Finance?", "resolve_at": "2026-10-14T20:00Z", "seal": "5c9d404b68e95aa4f613dee5bf2ded020a71b75cc6f02fabca75c983dc50171e", "short": "Will lung cancer drug maker AstraZeneca's share price rise on Wednesday?", "side": {"chatgpt": "US", "claude": "US", "deepseek": "CN", "gemini": "US", "grok": "US", "kimi": "CN", "meta": "US", "mimo": "CN", "qwen": "CN", "zai": "CN"}, "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AZN/", "yes": "Yes"}