en · zh · hi · es · fr · pt · ru · de · ja · ko · uk

← AI Council · Markets

Method and conflicts

How an issue of AI Council · Markets is made, which companies make the models, and what our interest is — only what the code and the open data show.

How an issue is made

Every morning before the New York open the same question goes, word for word, to every AI. Each answer is sealed before the outcome: its SHA-256 hash is stamped in the Bitcoin blockchain through OpenTimestamps. The score is counted by fixed rules from market prices; every forecast and every score is in open files: one question, word for word, to every AI · the book · CSV

The models and their makers

Some of these models are made by companies whose shares are in the indices we forecast (the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100): Alphabet, Meta Platforms, NVIDIA, Amazon. Every model gets the same question, and the rules of the score are the same for all.

Our interest

This page leads to Poly, our free app: we want readers to install it. The AIs' answers are sealed before anyone reads them, so this interest does not touch them.

Your call

Your call is kept apart from the AIs: you make it before you see their answers, it never changes their answers, the consensus or the score, and the readers' calls are shown for reference only.

Links to the crowd

The links to Polymarket and Kalshi lead straight to the question itself, with no referral tags.