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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-20-am

Hash of the run: 948c61afd7a5d06cac86d8c38c258f863f9707a24e8400678de321691abc0120 · sealed 2026-10-20T13:00:25Z

The intake for the score closed at Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-20T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=151) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Lines of the book

  1. n=150 · cb_packet · · seal 1a36b6ce2e558b8111ea85daa6d02f1746b2cb9fa36c5a18d02ebf21e1da3dea · link bd8a8fc7746999d77cc37234b8d8fed43c8684a6d6754688a94ca645e5cec955 — a record of the book
  2. n=151 · run · · seal 3c71c7042a20221b62114e265cf305cbc1387a5b65f05e93b698b2784aeb3e86 · link 9e11e1890a4fbf07d1af0694e5a2b8d73ec9a9e951076ba1eb925ff32fc520b8 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers
  3. n=152 · answer · chatgpt · seal 2795d94e68f27257294587ad128ed802b98eb8aa147cdefedfeac3e3f98b3424 · link b4adffbe9ea797410386def7f86dec475b897a75dd4554fbb91f1fd38a993c00 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  4. n=153 · answer · deepseek · seal 258170ab4a5d037e5aebfe6deed5be399c1fedce9c2f73777d8e7a1ff268dc9a · link 20e2ff5346a4a837483d6e2faf9371ac4c64229ab14fe1c7b248fc107a19bbdc — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  5. n=154 · answer · grok · seal 5cb335089126a0b568df8772b636a17a8e7b3eec8e8a1a2ab8da701e6812594a · link 1bb46336fa57ee89103a49ff2632597e5b9e45c7d1de72a4ce786b6e9222254d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  6. n=155 · answer · stepfun · seal 0e99c547b4baa9b6b4c3ed641b5233ee4595f6f6c7dc81277763f3b932136a2d · link be68f3001a5a5e87b8ee556b7d5ecde0b7213011aaa3f34ae55063d54948499e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  7. n=156 · answer · gemini · seal 4c2e7bc41d6b6fb25b4d88fa40b63a8848147b792cc8e096b94b9123fd8957f1 · link 24d731f2b4bec22c7c4a93259d86e236bd87dcb656cd5171955eaeb2548f77a9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  8. n=157 · answer · mimo · seal c64906d497e24e6d30932ac3bc6d9ee843d669d28ef817c4b4d90051e3f4c68a · link c63c38388fd3e61515f6f68c2321e1397427d4c802563634ef2b32b1e6adba04 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  9. n=158 · answer · wenxin · seal 2c2f3ef57210e23120bc6ccdce1fe7a353e07a7ded477803fd04c52b1f723a32 · link 3c12cf0465b21d879be85055f8d65843cb05969a8a926724872a39460ab6ecab — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  10. n=159 · answer · claude · seal c7f4facbf3491b7350660b41bbb724527015d497b578751beb10f5975826f0ff · link 378273fd057fcbf364746b032f67f42cd811d281da80f39ff0792c4047175b2c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
  11. n=160 · closed_book · chatgpt · seal 25f4955fd5168323d91e2c90e86dbab8773add7b4a6d3cc48e6c42a78c07c5c4 · link fc1058e8bb798f80f96ef7d3071f9b33e60e78effcfd8754ac0813969e1a9836 — a record of the book
  12. n=161 · closed_book · wenxin · seal bdddb0fd0df38f6118f0eeddb1383a0203d35f0d3f29f0ded972f6dee5e89628 · link 8a03644d8568c11d052087185366a3eb843cd700b810722e7918483cfe59d55f — a record of the book
  13. n=162 · closed_book · deepseek · seal 5b74a5c10e732e412487680b2bcf3dfc77116bcdda79aafc18bb5e86a2fcc8a8 · link 7d33b0f8a40c4ad51677bf3fea6ea2b6c4092f7c7eaee99d86232208ddec17ad — a record of the book
  14. n=163 · closed_book · gemini · seal dd2c48ec115bdfa93c575bd9d02d978418f8e53c994f12d08bab2a796225ca4b · link 7c0d5d8e2be95b62cbf8d46b06b8ea99d137782f96052baeffd4c0e9a1f326e1 — a record of the book
  15. n=164 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 3053dcc9bc3934162bea789fc7e81e1da885ee6949c55c2088b36a633bba7cbf · link 3eaecebf6e158c45cad5314d880eb94aba886a4dd184b5471016a8cc37ed5a1a — a record of the book
  16. n=165 · closed_book · claude · seal edd7cd2cfe49af341ae9de5e61727a1c7539bb8f2ed5ed3cd89f7796ea370897 · link 626ce9df47667f37a8590be234c8e3e6d2758fd6f9641c80563e803bfc1cbaa0 — a record of the book
  17. n=168 · answer · meta · seal f8471830be51a8ea8e22627953d7d03a6a04b4b2df1e8b7c48eeed90ec64722c · link badae406a56f2e77758d383ae7b4e1c847f4577645c7dfc3309d33fd7e46d984 — forecast · counted in the score
  18. n=169 · bench · zai · seal 7d128ad783180b4465ef52eacf856a32392c335a70718c481f8cea54da5306c8 · link 6a856c47bc72fd5afa0775b3ef3c4cdbb0124fdc6d6621624dca31f5f21c47ad — league · Pro league
  19. n=177 · bench · meta · seal cb77ffb3845ded35afba4c16c980fa31ed68ea8321d308e91b36c0baafbd52ea · link a92f38c5a0389b1bd520509bd755a79afe5133ead3983a7cea378d598f0eb962 — league · Pro league · asked again