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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-21-am

Hash of the run: 08b1387eab50e23936467aa9683690f5ab6567a533b819c03417d378427d1f57 · sealed 2026-10-21T13:00:19Z

Covers lines 213–224 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-21 13:00:19 UTC, re-sealed 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC (a later line was added).

Earlier hashes of this run, each with the list that stamped it:

• 8ab10066eb74a811ac88eef69d498470139da3c3184dafa55e2fb87efe91f66c — lines 213–222, list 130019Z.txt

The intake for the score closed at Wed, Oct 21, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-21T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=214) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

• Claude claude — Council: forecasts and the league: n=221 · forecast · league · Pro league
• ChatGPT chatgpt — Council: forecasts and the league: n=219 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Meta AI meta — Council: forecasts and the league: n=224 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Grok grok — Council: forecasts and the league: n=216 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Gemini gemini — Council: forecasts and the league: n=218 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Nemotron + Mercury nemotron — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line
• Amazon Nova nova — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

China

• MiMo (Xiaomi) mimo — Council: forecasts and the league: n=220 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Step 5 Preview stepfun — Council: forecasts and the league: n=215 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Z.ai zai — Council: forecasts and the league: n=222 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Kimi kimi — Council: forecasts and the league: no forecast · no answer
• DeepSeek deepseek — Council: forecasts and the league: n=217 · forecast · league · Pro league
• Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) wenxin — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line
• Qwen qwen — spare for the day’s question; plays in the league: no sealed line

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

• 130019Z.txt
• 130019Z.txt.ots
• 130035Z.txt
• 130035Z.txt.ots
• 132337Z.txt
• 132337Z.txt.ots
• 143325Z.txt
• 143325Z.txt.ots

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, takes the first N lines of the book named in the list and compares their SHA-256 with the one the list states. Nothing is sent anywhere; the commands below do the same.

• 130019Z.txt Check in the browser
• 130035Z.txt Check in the browser
• 132337Z.txt Check in the browser
• 143325Z.txt Check in the browser

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks, who already answered, the spares. “Did not answer” is never “was not asked”.

• council · asked: claude, chatgpt, meta, grok, gemini, mimo, stepfun, zai, kimi, deepseek · spares: nemotron, nova, wenxin, qwen · every one of them was sent the question · seal 2c69950ab92142fd…
• council · asked: meta, kimi · already answered: chatgpt, claude, deepseek, gemini, grok, mimo, stepfun, zai · spares: nemotron, nova, wenxin, qwen · every one of them was sent the question · seal e13650b5d6208203…
• council-cb · asked: claude, meta, gemini, stepfun, zai, deepseek · every one of them was sent the question · seal 054537932e3d92fb…
• council-mod2 · asked: claude · every one of them was sent the question · seal 6541f32b15010272…

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

All answers were sealed before the open: the latest — Meta AI, 13:23:37 UTC (6 min 23 s before the open); the others — at 13:00:19 UTC.

• 130019Z.txt — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972482 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-10-21 13:00:19 UTC · digicert 2026-10-21 13:00:19 UTC · before the intake closed
• 130035Z.txt — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972482 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-10-21 13:00:36 UTC · digicert 2026-10-21 13:00:36 UTC · before the intake closed
• 132337Z.txt — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972483 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC · digicert 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC · sectigo 2026-10-21 13:23:37 UTC · before the intake closed
• 143325Z.txt — OpenTimestamps: not later than Bitcoin block 972492 · RFC 3161 signing time: freetsa 2026-10-21 14:33:26 UTC · digicert 2026-10-21 14:33:25 UTC · sectigo 2026-10-21 14:33:25 UTC

Chain of lists

• 130019Z.txt — previous list 2026-10-21/124004Z.txt sha256 499d794b50c8678602610b2263e7ddb62cc63a5db7d9ee9d03792045172a91be · hash equal
• 130035Z.txt — previous list 2026-10-21/130019Z.txt sha256 986bd13907397901ceed70131a70c3674eba05dfdcb9ededbc7cbc0e57bd3714 · hash equal
• 132337Z.txt — previous list 2026-10-21/130035Z.txt sha256 5a9cea1c112a60bc74685ade272d8939315438556fc467f96d9502399bc03166 · hash equal
• 143325Z.txt — previous list 2026-10-21/132337Z.txt sha256 7602c6ab4dc2a24200aeed8010bdd515c9fa9d909d5eb4aa7f157debb207fddc · hash equal

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

20 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

Which run counts

From 21 Oct: the morning scheduled run counts, the others are for reference. · sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5): с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

archive.org · 2026-10-21 17:37 UTC

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

• the time each service signed: openssl ts -reply -in 130019Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -text
• the signature against the service root (freetsa): openssl ts -verify -data 130019Z.txt -in 130019Z.txt.freetsa.tsr -CAfile freetsa-cacert.pem -untrusted freetsa-tsa.crt
• the signature against the service root (digicert): openssl ts -verify -data 130019Z.txt -in 130019Z.txt.digicert.tsr -CAfile /etc/ssl/cert.pem
• the Bitcoin block of the stamp: ots verify 130019Z.txt.ots
• the question text equals its sealed hash: shasum -a 256 asked/c2b462f340da9cd1654abf24863aebc81c7dbe017c59981829f873aa1fd19bbc.md
• the whole chain of questions, line by line: python3 engine/seals_asks.py verify
• the chain of lists, each naming the one before it: python3 engine/seals.py verify
• Recount the published Brier from the open files (exit code 0 — reproduced, 1 — differs): python3 tools/replay_brier.py https://trends.polyhelper.ai/api/v1/

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Lines of the book

1. n=213 · cb_packet · · seal 223feff5d5b54a79a932d3d60bd8edcb07778de0102993a3f23c4572574cecd0 · link 27de5672086563a0bcc987fc38dc605ca9f19cc10f63b6138fe9af6b27f5769a — a record of the book
2. n=214 · run · · seal af66fcecf07b07c3a5a293a17a14fdc895982cbc04918eccbf8ff38b2c863b9f · link 85c3573826b5e84bcbd92de7c817a0244e110eed88974ae3d2abf713d6002e97 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers
3. n=215 · answer · stepfun · seal c3c0f9eeaf0ade4c7f61a1649ebcc08c499d93e2f68d78b2147d94042bda5157 · link 45c3736ee2afd908a33d5fa8e56d20f68b17e177be16a34af5d8f52d13020c54 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
4. n=216 · answer · grok · seal a202899f367919d1069bccc2887f2a1424a29eab95a3d235c59efc70636be599 · link 0beb5bc01ff7da9aa21ceff435331591743e03c3fcf6a4005ff833f70eae21eb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
5. n=217 · answer · deepseek · seal 9c744534adba19e7ebc18fbc914f6b07bd46e9c6cea75147f8f1fa623f9190d0 · link aea04626e956d676668d69bdf9888e3843b7b3bf14ab1ea8b308f03111df836e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
6. n=218 · answer · gemini · seal a6df7f148e55e2a631702b63f7f037824c1197dfaf34d67ec4d5922cbc0833e6 · link e0d47146e349d9a490cff7f7ecbb0360bc9d443a950fc83c9ad45164a7397056 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
7. n=219 · answer · chatgpt · seal 797f6421ae5d16c66affff10bc2b93b60019b841b186dc7dd369ce66687bb4a2 · link 3802a54b5f441e480a91e2718621a4503f63d3035515fc4275d2e626c1d58149 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
8. n=220 · answer · mimo · seal bb31e3b814c6779b140bb7ad8314b2779cc0a87f7c7517abde6af8c9c7c1b02c · link fef81d60ef09030661057a2018bb6c99e0be04e9fba68e74790bd95366076e84 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
9. n=221 · answer · claude · seal 055d3988dce81148268431e813696c1585e32445a5a5c5e69d736a4c181bec11 · link c5491bcd82e904542a7284cb892022e9b06cb6e930559d77a051ec767d4f4b30 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
10. n=222 · answer · zai · seal d000ebef098a06bd3b3d6c120966ef772f586caedd2f37ff1a045d4348525f0f · link e28f67e917496a6e9bde6db277b8859eda407d4ef34d0d12bee6c60bf02309b6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
11. n=223 · ask_version · · seal 45314beb98cedd80cefe70d8a18268a4f5182541ae89bdc9fe54c614651c57ce · link 2571e9cf8bd388c41b355e09aa990249c1bea0539996359fc2cb18a4b32a2aae — a record of the book
12. n=224 · answer · meta · seal 0b2b57b47ecb22eb493bec3029a7c44cf7eacb82feaa2a520cfa6684577c460b · link 18d33ee6a3b20ddc7f4764cf048e1384971397aa7995d52d38d5d3f35c27604e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score
13. n=225 · closed_book · stepfun · seal 1b69f2d05af6366cad012b74773661da250fdbfe85c37b7378e1462e23ce07d2 · link fd238f64511c30346f85f5dcf34f99e84e07343aa67731532c8fa746fdb0012a — a record of the book
14. n=226 · closed_book · deepseek · seal 5405461d9aa165fbe769519be516302230f31f4f47128d84a987d542d0af8e3b · link a61e15a4399b6d25e1b838651aef70ae4c2d08272d83556da36b2a9c3d60f904 — a record of the book
15. n=227 · closed_book · gemini · seal 0b171ecd7ecfe509fd3bc110c47e99af3834f0f1d435eb925a83b0fdf8f30248 · link cbde9fb4bf8c00f499d497a4827dcff2ae4df4df6c560b3a2b1dc0716a12e129 — a record of the book
16. n=228 · closed_book · zai · seal 5727cc6c40638a128f452c566f1bbde3407b57637e04c2c0b73ed1402921fc63 · link e9115bf5b23fa6897f96da117893cdab4b2db0dab275e2428de4897ec2a21028 — a record of the book
17. n=229 · closed_book · claude · seal b5c39b6356f757d85af475af6213138d9d00458fd35403996c4b2fdc7f3a9980 · link 6d57d4179eff8aefb19b6096185a79045aed8c4201108a7eedb5dc267d55f8b7 — a record of the book
18. n=230 · closed_book · meta · seal f479c0421b48d5e83eaca4219476e21bdc4c27821c3c8317751b17b3da97585f · link e51854b4aaa7c75920898840736fd0d0a68db504f704179dd784a42f589dc03b — a record of the book