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Verificación de pronósticos · revisado el 12 de octubre de 2026

¿Se cumplió o no? Lo que 12 IA prometieron para 2026

En noviembre de 2025, doce IA —seis de EE. UU., cinco de China y una de Europa— escribieron extensos análisis del mercado de la IA para el ranking de modelos de 10Think. Copiamos al pie de la letra cada pronóstico con fecha y lo contrastamos con lo que realmente pasó. Opus con búsqueda web reúne los hechos; 7 jueces de IA dan el veredicto a ciegas: nunca ven qué IA hizo el pronóstico.

Se cumplieron · EE. UU.11 de 15En parte: 4 · Es pronto: 14 · Acierto: 87%
Se cumplieron · China3 de 14En parte: 7 · Es pronto: 3 · Acierto: 46%
Se cumplieron · Europa1 de 5En parte: 3 · Es pronto: 3 · Acierto: 50%

Solo cuentan los pronósticos ya resueltos (se cumplió, en parte, no se cumplió); «es pronto» no cuenta. En la columna de acierto, «en parte» vale la mitad.

Cada IA

IALadoPronósticosSe cumplióEn parteNo se cumplióEs prontoAcierto
ClaudeEE. UU.13630483%
QwenChina10253045%
MetaEE. UU.84004100%
Le ChatEuropa8131350%
GeminiEE. UU.2110075%
KimiChina31002100%
ErnieChina4021133%
GrokEE. UU.40004—
ChatGPTEE. UU.20002—
PiEE. UU.sin pronósticos con fecha en su texto
DeepSeekChinasin pronósticos con fecha en su texto
Z.aiChinasin pronósticos con fecha en su texto

Todos los pronósticos

  1. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a China (government plan)

    China establecerá más de 50 estándares de IA en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: MIIT's 2024 draft guideline targeted at least 50 sets of AI standards by 2026 plus participation in 20+ international standards. By August 2026, MIIT officials said China had formulated nearly 200 key AI standards; specific releases in 2026 include GB/Z 177-2026, a national grading standard for AI-enabled consumer devices (May 8, 2026). The 'nearly 200' figure is an official cumulative count and may include standards drafted or in progress, not only formally issued ones.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    China plans to establish **50+ AI standards** by 2026
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 579 · 2025-11-29
  2. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a McKinsey (survey)

    La inversión empresarial en IA aumentará en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: McKinsey's 10th annual survey, 'The State of AI in 2026: On the Road to ROI' (reported Sept 1, 2026), found 60% of respondents plan to increase AI investment over the next year (the November 2025 source cited 92%). Gartner's 2026 CIO survey reported 89% of CIOs planned to increase AI spend in 2026. Other 2026 surveys (e.g., Bain: ~75% of companies raising AI investment; reports of enterprise AI budgets roughly doubling from 0.8% to 1.7% of revenue) point the same direction; realized full-year 2026 spending totals are not yet final.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Enterprise AI investment will increase (92% of companies surveyed by McKinsey)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 580 · 2025-11-29
  3. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    OpenAI lanzará GPT-6 en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: OpenAI released GPT-6 in 2026: GPT-6 Astra entered limited preview on September 3, 2026 and public release on September 4, 2026; GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna followed on September 22, 2026. On October 7, 2026 OpenAI rolled GPT-6 models with 'Intelligent UI' into ChatGPT for paid tiers, expanding to Free and Go users from October 8. Before that, the GPT-5.6 family launched July 9, 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    GPT-6 (OpenAI)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 585 · 2025-11-29
  4. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Anthropic lanzará Claude 5 en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, described as its most capable model for the general public, on June 9, 2026, following the limited 'Project Glasswing' access program. Claude Opus 5 followed on July 24, 2026, priced at $5/$25 per million input/output tokens and positioned at roughly half the price of Fable 5. Neither model is branded simply 'Claude 5', but both carry the version number 5.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Claude 5 (Anthropic)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 586 · 2025-11-29
  5. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Google lanzará Gemini 3.5 o Gemini 4 en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Google announced the Gemini 3.5 family at Google I/O on May 19, 2026 and shipped Gemini 3.5 Flash that day; on July 21, 2026 it added Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite and Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber. The flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro was promised for June 2026 but, per reports through September 20, 2026, remained in partner testing and listed as 'coming soon'. No Gemini 4 release was found as of October 12, 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Gemini 3.5/4 (Google)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 587 · 2025-11-29
  6. Se cumplióClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    DeepSeek lanzará DeepSeek-V4 en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V4 (preview) on April 24, 2026 as open weights in two Mixture-of-Experts variants: V4-Pro (1.6T total / 49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B / 13B active), both with a 1M-token context window. API pricing was published at $1.74/$3.48 per million input/output tokens for V4-Pro and $0.14/$0.28 for V4-Flash. Later checkpoints (e.g. V4-Pro-0813) appeared on hosting providers.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    DeepSeek-V4 (DeepSeek)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 589 · 2025-11-29
  7. Se cumplióGeminiEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 ningún modelo será el mejor para todas las tareas.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Leaderboards in 2026 show a crowded frontier: in the July-August 2026 LMArena snapshots, Claude Opus 4.8 led text and coding, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Opus 4.7 close behind, and the Elo gap between #1 and #10 was about 28 points, largely within noise. Separate arenas (text, coding, vision, etc.) and cost/latency trade-offs lead commentators to recommend choosing models by task (e.g. Claude for coding, ChatGPT for voice/image, Gemini for multimodal, open-weight models for self-hosting). 'Best for every task' is not formally measured; the evidence is leaderboard dispersion.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Looking ahead into 2026, the rational strategy is model-agnosticism. There is no single “best” model for everything:
    Gemini · Жемини Инсайтс.txt, línea 442 · 2025-11-28
  8. Se cumplióMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de marzo de 2026

    La infraestructura de OpenAI en AWS (bajo el acuerdo de 38.000 millones de dólares entre OpenAI y AWS) entra en funcionamiento en el primer trimestre de 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: OpenAI and AWS announced the 7-year, $38B partnership on November 3, 2025, stating OpenAI would begin using AWS compute immediately, with all targeted capacity (NVIDIA GB200/GB300 on EC2 UltraServers) to be deployed before the end of 2026 and expansion into 2027+. Reports describe OpenAI as having begun using AWS right away; no public milestone found specifically declaring the full infrastructure 'live' by Q1 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    OpenAI’s AWS infrastructure goes live (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026).
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 305 · 2025-11-29
  9. Se cumplióMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Anthropic comienza la construcción de centros de datos en Texas y Nueva York.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: On November 12, 2025 Anthropic announced a $50 billion US data-center investment with Fluidstack, with the first custom facilities in Texas and New York coming online through 2026 (about 2,400 construction and 800 permanent jobs). An August 31, 2026 analysis reports the New York site (Lake Mariner, a repurposed coal plant) partly online, with a 42 MW building live in early July 2026 and a 168 MW building expected late September 2026, while the Texas site (Abernathy) was under construction for H2 2026 delivery. No primary-source groundbreaking ceremony announcement was found.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Anthropic is breaking ground on data centers in Texas and New York.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 306 · 2025-11-29
  10. Se cumplióMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Gemini 3 se desplegará de forma más amplia más allá de los países de acceso anticipado.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Gemini 3 Pro launched November 18, 2025 across the Gemini app, AI Mode in Search, AI Studio and Vertex AI, and Google then expanded Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro in Search to more countries. During 2026 Google shipped successor models: Gemini 3.1 Pro, Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google I/O, May 19, 2026), and Gemini 3.6 Flash / 3.5 Flash-Lite (July 21, 2026); Gemini 3.5 Pro was still testing with partners as of late July 2026, and in September 2026 Google said Gemini 4 would come 'as soon as possible'. Access still varies by country, account and subscription.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Wider rollout of Gemini 3 beyond early-access countries.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 307 · 2025-11-29
  11. Se cumplióMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Los precios de inferencia de los modelos de clase GPT-4 seguirán bajando.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Inference prices at fixed capability levels continued falling through 2026. Epoch AI analyses report prices for a constant performance level falling roughly 47% per quarter (median declines on the order of tens to hundreds of times per year since 2024). One example cited: an ARC-style result that cost $0.30 per question with o3 in January 2025 cost about $0.0004 with GPT-5.6 Luna in June 2026. Market trackers reported average token prices of ~$1.16-1.18 per million tokens in early August 2026, down 43% from $2.04 at end-May 2026; DeepSeek V4-Flash launched at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens in April 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Continued pressure on inference costs — prices for GPT-4-class models have fallen ~90 % since 2023, making AI far more accessible.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 308 · 2025-11-29
  12. Se cumplióQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En el segundo semestre de 2026, se consolidarán modelos de gobernanza de la IA distintos en EE. UU., la UE y Asia.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: By October 2026 the three regions followed visibly different tracks. The US issued a December 11, 2025 executive order ('Ensuring a National Policy Framework for AI') directing a DOJ task force to challenge state AI laws and pushing a minimally burdensome federal approach. The EU kept its risk-based AI Act but agreed (provisional deal May 7, 2026) to delay high-risk obligations to Dec 2, 2027 / Aug 2, 2028. In Asia, South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026, while China continued issuing state AI standards (nearly 200 key standards per MIIT, Aug 2026).

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Regional divergence: Distinct AI governance models will solidify across US, EU, and Asia
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 441 · 2025-11-29
  13. Se cumplióQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En el segundo semestre de 2026, la estrecha integración entre chips de IA y arquitecturas de modelos se convertirá en una ventaja competitiva.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Chip-model co-design was a visible competitive theme in 2026: Google sells its in-house Ironwood (TPUv7) capacity externally, with Anthropic committing to up to one million TPUs (announced Oct 2025) and Meta reported to have signed a multibillion-dollar TPU deal in February 2026. OpenAI and Broadcom (announced Oct 13, 2025) are co-designing custom accelerators, with 10 GW to be deployed starting H2 2026 and first racks targeted for late 2026. 'Competitive advantage' itself is not directly measurable; these are the closest indicators.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Hardware-software co-design: Tight integration between AI chips and model architectures will become competitive advantage
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 442 · 2025-11-29
  14. Se cumplióKimiChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Se espera que en 2026 la generación de imágenes, aún separada de los modelos principales (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney), se integre en ellos.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Image generation is now natively integrated into the main assistants: OpenAI released gpt-image-2 on April 21, 2026 and 'ChatGPT Images 2.0' to all ChatGPT plans on April 22, 2026 (native, with reasoning before generation), succeeding the 2025 GPT-4o native image generation that replaced DALL-E 3 in ChatGPT. Google's 'Nano Banana' line is Gemini's native image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image, Gemini 3 Pro Image, Gemini 3.1 Flash Image). Midjourney remains a separate product.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): Se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Image generation still separate (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney) but integration expected in 2026.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, línea 496 · 2025-11-29
  15. Se cumplióLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 la regulación de la IA se intensificará, con EE. UU., la UE y China redactando nuevas leyes de IA.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: All three jurisdictions produced new AI legal measures in 2025-2026, though in different directions. China's amended Cybersecurity Law with its first AI-specific article took effect January 1, 2026. The EU reached a provisional Digital Omnibus agreement on May 7, 2026 amending the AI Act (delaying high-risk obligations to Dec 2027/Aug 2028 and adding a ban on AI 'nudifier'/CSAM tools). In the US, the White House issued a National AI Policy Framework on March 20, 2026 and a House discussion draft 'Great American AI Act of 2026' (June 4, 2026) proposed a 3-year preemption of state AI-development laws; no comprehensive federal AI law had passed as of October 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **AI regulation will intensify** (US, EU, China all drafting new laws).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 221 · 2025-11-29
  16. En parteClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Los precios de las API de los modelos de frontera se recortarán otro 50 % o más en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Price moves in 2026 were mixed rather than uniform. OpenAI cut GPT-5.6 Sol (its frontier model) from $5/$30 to $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens in August 2026 for a three-month period (~20-33%), after cutting mid-tier Terra by 20% and the small Luna model by 80% on July 30, 2026. Industry trackers describe a bifurcated market: sharp deflation in cheaper tiers (a token-expenditure index fell ~43% from late May to early August 2026) while top-tier frontier list prices rose relative to early 2026 (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol listed at $5/$30 before the cut, vs GPT-5 at $1.25/$10 in 2025). No single authoritative index shows a 50%+ cut in frontier API list prices during 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Additional 50%+ price cuts on frontier model APIs
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 581 · 2025-11-29
  17. En parteClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 Anthropic ganará terreno en el mercado empresarial, Google en multimodal, y los modelos verticales especializados (salud, derecho, finanzas) cobrarán impulso.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Menlo Ventures' December 2025 report put Anthropic at 40% of enterprise LLM API spend vs OpenAI 27% and Google 21% (Google up from 20% in July 2025). Ramp's AI Index (card/bill-pay data from 50,000+ US businesses) showed Anthropic at 34.4% business adoption in April 2026, overtaking OpenAI's 32.3% for the first time. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro was reported to top most major benchmarks in spring 2026; no single authoritative 2026 measure of 'multimodal leadership' or of vertical-model momentum (healthcare/legal/finance) was found.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **Gaining:** Anthropic (enterprise dominance), Google (multimodal leadership), specialized vertical models (healthcare, legal, finance)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 593 · 2025-11-29
  18. En parteClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 OpenAI seguirá perdiendo cuota de mercado empresarial y la adopción del código abierto puro se estancará.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Menlo Ventures' late-2025 data put Anthropic at about 40% of US enterprise LLM API spend versus OpenAI at 27% (OpenAI had ~50% in 2023). In the Ramp AI Index for August/September 2026, 43.8% of Ramp business customers paid Anthropic vs 39.8% for OpenAI; however, a WSJ analysis of OpenRouter data (reported Oct 9, 2026) found OpenAI's share of coding/productivity traffic rose from under 25% at the start of 2026 to almost 50% by September. On open source, Constellation Research (Aug 24, 2026) cited Vercel AI Gateway data showing open-weight models rising from 11% of token volume in April 2026 to 62% by August 22, 2026, though under 4% of spend.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **Facing Pressure:** OpenAI (enterprise share erosion), pure open-source plays (adoption stalling)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 595 · 2025-11-29
  19. En parteGeminiEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Las empresas seguirán migrando de las API de clase GPT-4 a Llama 4 y Qwen 3 de pesos abiertos en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: An Enterprise Technology Research survey (September 2026, ~200 respondents) found open-weight models handle 34% of enterprise AI token usage, up from 23% a year earlier; 42% of respondents run open-weight models in production, and 60% of those have moved some workloads off proprietary APIs, while 93% say proprietary usage keeps growing. Google's Gemma overtook Meta's Llama as the most deployed open-weight family in that survey (Llama production use fell from 55% to 35% since July), and Qwen has the largest derivative ecosystem (>151,000 derived repos). So migration toward open weights is measured, but the leading families shifted away from Llama 4 specifically.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    More and more companies are migrating from GPT-4-class APIs to Llama 4 and Qwen 3 to gain:
    Gemini · Жемини Инсайтс.txt, línea 418 · 2025-11-28
  20. En parteQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Anthropic podría ampliar las capacidades multimodales de Claude en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: On April 17, 2026 Anthropic launched Claude Design (Anthropic Labs, powered by Claude Opus 4.7), which generates visual prototypes, slides and one-pagers on a live canvas for paid subscribers. Claude also has a voice mode (launched in beta May 2025) and image/document input; as of 2026 reporting, Claude still offers no native image, audio or video generation. Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 5 (July 2026) were positioned mainly on long-running agentic, coding and knowledge-work tasks.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): Se cumplióKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    May expand multimodal capabilities in 2026 to counter Google’s advantage, but likely to maintain focus on high-value professional applications.
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 66 · 2025-11-29
  21. En parteQwenChina· Plazo: 30 de junio de 2026

    En el primer semestre de 2026, la escasez mundial de chips podría limitar el avance de las capacidades de la IA.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: In H1 2026 the main hardware bottleneck was memory and packaging rather than GPU dies: SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron reported 2026 HBM output essentially sold out, DRAM contract prices rose ~93-98% in Q1 2026, and data-center GPU lead times were reported at 9-12 months. Compute scarcity hit AI services: Anthropic tightened Claude peak-hour usage limits in late March 2026 and in May 2026 contracted all of SpaceX/xAI's Colossus 1 (~220,000 Nvidia GPUs); GitHub paused new Copilot sign-ups in April 2026 citing compute demand. At the same time frontier releases continued (DeepSeek V4 in April, GPT-5.6 in July, GPT-6 in September) and Nvidia reported record Q2 FY27 revenue of $96.2B (data center $89.0B).

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Hardware constraints: Global chip shortages may limit AI capability advancement despite algorithmic improvements
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 434 · 2025-11-29
  22. En parteQwenChina· Plazo: 30 de junio de 2026

    En el primer semestre de 2026, las organizaciones pasarán de la experimentación con IA al despliegue en producción a escala.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (reported Sept 1, 2026) found 44% of organizations scaling AI across the enterprise, up from 38% a year earlier (54% of $1B+ companies, about one-third of smaller firms), with only ~6% qualifying as high performers with measurable bottom-line impact. Gartner-cited 2026 data showed only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, and Gartner (Sept 29, 2026) predicted many vendor-built agentic deployments will be abandoned by 2028. No single direct measure of a 'shift to production at scale' in H1 2026 exists; these are the closest proxies.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): Se cumplióQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Enterprise maturity: Organizations will shift from AI experimentation to production deployment at scale
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 436 · 2025-11-29
  23. En parteQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En el segundo semestre de 2026, surgirán estándares del sector para los protocolos de interacción multimodal.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Agent-interoperability standards consolidated under the Linux Foundation: Anthropic donated MCP to the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF, founded December 2025 with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google among members), and Google's A2A protocol is also hosted by the Linux Foundation. MCP Apps (January 26, 2026) added interactive UI returns, and the MCP 2026 roadmap lists first-class audio/video modalities. No dedicated, broadly adopted standard specifically for multimodal (voice/vision) interaction protocols was found as of October 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Multimodal standardization: Industry standards will emerge for multimodal interaction protocols
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 439 · 2025-11-29
  24. En parteQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En el segundo semestre de 2026, los marketplaces de agentes y flujos de trabajo de IA se volverán mayoritarios.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Several large platform-run AI agent marketplaces launched or expanded in 2026: Google Cloud launched an Agent Marketplace in April 2026, Microsoft an Agent Store inside Microsoft 365 Copilot in May 2026, and AWS launched an AI agent marketplace on July 15, 2026 (AWS Summit New York) with Anthropic as a launch partner. AWS Marketplace's agents category (opened July 2025) grew from ~800 to over 2,100 listings by December 2025, and Salesforce AgentExchange launched with ~200 partners. 'Mainstream' has no standard metric; there is no independent measurement of enterprise purchasing share via such marketplaces.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Agent economy: Marketplaces for AI agents and workflows will become mainstream
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 440 · 2025-11-29
  25. En parteErnieChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 los agentes de IA actuarán de forma independiente, por ejemplo reservando vacaciones y gestionando finanzas sin intervención humana.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Agentic transactions began appearing in 2026 but largely with human confirmation and in pilots: Visa launched its 'Agentic Ready' program on March 17, 2026 with 21 European issuers, an agent acting for a Santander customer completed a Visa card purchase in March 2026, and Mastercard took Agent Pay live in Portugal and the Netherlands in May 2026. In travel, Google ran a limited US test of agentic hotel booking in AI Mode while agentic flight booking had not launched; Priceline called its agent 'fully agentic' in June 2026. OpenAI discontinued ChatGPT's Instant Checkout on March 4, 2026, redirecting purchases to merchant sites. No broad consumer use of agents managing finances without human input was documented.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    AI agents will act independently (e.g., booking vacations, managing finances without human input).
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, línea 191 · 2025-11-29
  26. En parteErnieChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 los experimentos de IA cuántica pueden llevar a avances en el descubrimiento de fármacos y el modelado climático.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: 2026 saw research collaborations and demonstrations rather than a widely recognized drug or climate breakthrough attributable to quantum AI: Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN and IBM simulated protein complexes up to 12,635 atoms with hybrid quantum-classical methods; IonQ with AstraZeneca, AWS and NVIDIA reported a 20x speedup on a Suzuki-Miyaura reaction workflow; Roche-Quantinuum and Boehringer Ingelheim-Google partnerships target early-stage drug discovery; IBM and AMD announced quantum-centric supercomputing aimed at drug discovery and climate modeling. No quantum-derived drug candidate or climate-model result in production use was found.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Quantum AI experiments may lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery and climate modeling.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, línea 192 · 2025-11-29
  27. En parteLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a India (national AI initiative goal)

    India formará a 1 millón de ingenieros de IA en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The '1 million' figure traces to a MeitY-linked report ('India's AI Revolution: A Roadmap to Viksit Bharat') projecting demand for about 1 million AI professionals by 2026, rather than a count of engineers trained. Reported progress: IndiaAI/FutureSkills programs had ~8.65 lakh (865,000) enrolled or trained, including ~3.2 lakh in AI/Big Data; FutureSkills PRIME had 18.56 lakh sign-ups and ~3.37 lakh completions; the YUVA AI for All literacy course had ~8.5 million enrolments by July 2026. On August 15, 2026 the Prime Minister announced a drive to train 1 crore (10 million) youth in AI skills within a year. No official count of 1 million trained AI engineers was found.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    aims to train 1 million AI engineers by 2026.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 106 · 2025-11-29
  28. En parteLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 el entusiasmo por la AGI alcanzará su pico, pero aún no se logrará una AGI verdadera.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: As of October 2026 no lab or independent body has declared AGI achieved; frontier models from Google, OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI reportedly scored under 1% on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark where humans score near 100%. Leaders' timelines diverge: Amodei and Musk have pointed to around end-2026/2027, Hassabis reiterated ~2030 at Stanford in June 2026 and called AI 'overhyped in the short term', and Altman said AGI may have 'gone whooshing by'. Whether hype 'peaked' has no direct metric.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): En parteLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **AGI hype will peak** (but no true AGI yet).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 218 · 2025-11-29
  29. En parteLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 la IA en el dispositivo (Apple, Qualcomm) reducirá la dependencia de la nube.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: At WWDC on June 8, 2026 Apple announced next-generation Apple Foundation Models (built with Google Gemini) split between on-device Apple silicon and Private Cloud Compute, adding a larger (~20B-parameter, reported) on-device model for high-end devices and a Core AI framework for local models; heavier tasks still route to Apple's cloud. Qualcomm and Samsung continue to market on-device NPU capability. No industry-wide measurement showing a reduction in cloud inference dependency was found; cloud AI infrastructure spending kept rising (Gartner: infrastructure >45% of $2.59T AI spend in 2026).

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): En parteKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **On-device AI** (Apple, Qualcomm) will reduce cloud dependency.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 220 · 2025-11-29
  30. No se cumplióQwenChina· Plazo: 31 de enero de 2026

    La plena aplicación de la Ley de IA de la UE comienza en enero de 2026 y exige documentación de cumplimiento para los sistemas de IA de alto riesgo.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The EU AI Act did not reach 'full enforcement' in January 2026; its original schedule set August 2, 2026 for most high-risk (Annex III) obligations. The Digital Omnibus on AI, proposed in November 2025, was published in the Official Journal on July 24, 2026 and entered into force July 27, 2026, deferring Annex III high-risk obligations to December 2, 2027 and Annex I (product-embedded) high-risk obligations to August 2, 2028. Prohibited practices (Feb 2025), AI literacy, GPAI obligations (Aug 2025) and Article 50 transparency duties stay on their original schedule.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): No se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    EU AI Act implementation: Full enforcement begins January 2026, requiring compliance documentation for high-risk AI systems
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 349 · 2025-11-29
  31. No se cumplióQwenChina· Plazo: 30 de junio de 2026

    En el primer semestre de 2026, los plazos de cumplimiento de la Ley de IA de la UE forzarán cambios significativos en las estrategias de despliegue de modelos.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Instead of new obligations biting in H1 2026, the EU adopted the 'Digital Omnibus on AI': provisional agreement on May 7, 2026, Parliament vote June 16, 2026, publication in the Official Journal July 24 and entry into force July 27, 2026. It deferred stand-alone high-risk (Annex III) obligations from August 2, 2026 to December 2, 2027, and product-embedded high-risk (Annex I) from August 2027 to August 2028, and gave existing systems until December 2, 2026 for AI-content labelling. GPAI model obligations had applied since August 2, 2025.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): No se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Regulatory enforcement: EU AI Act compliance deadlines will force significant changes in model deployment strategies
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 433 · 2025-11-29
  32. No se cumplióQwenChina· Plazo: 30 de junio de 2026

    En el primer semestre de 2026, el número de startups de IA independientes caerá entre un 15 y un 20 % por adquisiciones y cierres.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No census of the number of independent AI startups exists, so a 15-20% reduction cannot be measured directly. Acquisition activity rose: Crunchbase counted 195 AI startup acquisitions early in 2026 (already 14% above all of 2025, per reporting), OpenAI made 8 acquisitions in Jan-Apr 2026, and SpaceX's reported ~$60B purchase of Cursor/Anysphere closed in Q2 2026. SimpleClosure's H1 2026 report said AI companies were only 14.4% of its shutdowns and it saw its fewest AI closures ever, while AI took $355.9B of $412.7B US startup investment in H1 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): No se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Consolidation wave: Expect 15–20% reduction in independent AI startups through acquisitions and closures
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, línea 435 · 2025-11-29
  33. No se cumplióErnieChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 la regulación de la IA se endurecerá, con la Ley de IA de la UE y la Declaración de Derechos de la IA de EE. UU. marcando estándares globales.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The 'AI Bill of Rights' was a non-binding 2022 White House blueprint; it was removed from active White House policy after January 2025, and Executive Order 14110 was rescinded, replaced by a deregulatory approach (AI Action Plan, July 2025; December 11, 2025 order targeting state AI laws). In the EU, the AI Act remains in force but the May 2026 Digital Omnibus deal delayed high-risk obligations to 2027-2028. South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): No se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Regulation will tighten, with EU’s AI Act and U.S. AI Bill of Rights setting global standards.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, línea 199 · 2025-11-29
  34. No se cumplióLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a Sam Altman

    La Alianza de Chips de IA de Sam Altman acabará con el monopolio de NVIDIA en chips de IA en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No entity called 'AI Chip Alliance' led by Sam Altman was found; OpenAI's chip efforts in 2026 consist of a Broadcom co-designed custom accelerator (10 GW, deployment starting H2 2026, completion by end-2029) and a 6 GW AMD MI450 agreement starting H2 2026. Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in 2026 is estimated at roughly 75-81% (Silicon Analysts/IDC), down from ~90%, with some researchers projecting ~70% by end-2026. Nvidia reported record Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2B (data center $89.0B, +117% y/y) for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 and guided ~$108B for the next quarter.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): No se cumplióGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Sam Altman’s **AI Chip Alliance** aims to break NVIDIA’s monopoly by 2026.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 126 · 2025-11-29
  35. Es prontoChatGPTEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2029· citando a Citigroup

    El gasto de capital relacionado con la IA alcanzará los 2,8 billones de dólares en 2029.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Citigroup raised its forecast in late September 2025 to more than $2.8 trillion of cumulative Big Tech AI infrastructure spending through 2029 (from $2.3T), with hyperscaler AI capex of about $490B in 2026. In 2026 the four largest hyperscalers (Amazon ~$200B, Microsoft ~$190B, Alphabet $180-190B, Meta $125-145B) guided to roughly $700-725B of combined 2026 capex, up ~77% from ~$410B in 2025, and Wall Street expects 2027 capex above $1 trillion. The 2029 cumulative total cannot be measured until 2029; current run-rates are above Citi's 2026 interim estimate.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Citigroup estimating $2.8 trillion in AI-related capex by 2029.
    ChatGPT · ЧатЖПТ Инсайтс.txt, línea 57 · 2025-11-28
  36. Es prontoChatGPTEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2035· citando a Goldman Sachs

    La IA aportará hasta 20 billones de dólares de valor adicional a la economía de EE. UU. en la próxima década.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The $20 trillion figure comes from a Goldman Sachs analysis reported in November 2025, estimating widespread AI adoption could add about $20 trillion of value to the US economy (including ~$8 trillion of capital income) and lift US labor productivity ~15% over roughly a decade. The window runs to about 2035, so the outcome cannot be measured as of October 2026; only early indicators exist (e.g., heavy AI capex such as Amazon's ~$98B H1 2026 capex).

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Goldman Sachs argues that the AI boom is “barely begun,” projecting up to $20 trillion of additional value for the U.S. economy alone over the next decade.
    ChatGPT · ЧатЖПТ Инсайтс.txt, línea 57 · 2025-11-28
  37. Es prontoClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a Gartner

    El 40 % de las aplicaciones empresariales usará agentes de IA específicos para tareas en 2026 (frente al 5 % en 2025).

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Gartner's August 26, 2025 press release forecast that 40% of enterprise applications would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026, up from under 5% in 2025; no Gartner measurement of the actual 2026 share of enterprise applications with embedded agents was found as of October 12, 2026. Closest proxies: Gartner survey data cited in 2026 that only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents (60%+ planning to within two years), and McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) reporting AI-agent deployment at 40% of large ($1B+) companies (up from 27%) and 22% of smaller ones. Gartner on Sept 29, 2026 also predicted 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor forward-deployed engineering by 2028.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Gartner predicts **40% of enterprise applications** will leverage task-specific AI agents by 2026, up from 5% in 2025.
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 531 · 2025-11-29
  38. Es prontoClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2027

    Se proyecta que los ingresos de OpenAI alcancen los 100.000 millones de dólares en 2027.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate was reported at about $25B at end of February 2026 (vs $21.4B at end-2025), and Reuters/Bloomberg-sourced reports in late September/early October 2026 put it near $70B, up >70% since early July (unaudited, anonymous-source figures). Full-year 2026 recognized revenue is projected far lower than the run rate (one cited internal projection ~$29.4B). Sam Altman has reportedly floated $100B revenue by 2027; the deadline (end-2027) has not passed and no 2027 actuals exist.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    | **OpenAI** | ~$13B ARR | ~$500B | $100B projected by 2027 |
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 557 · 2025-11-29
  39. Es prontoClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a Gartner

    El 70 % de las organizaciones usará agentes de IA autónomos en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: There is no direct measurement of '70% of organizations using autonomous AI agents' in 2026. Gartner's 2026 CIO survey (reported mid-2026) found only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, with 42% planning to within 12 months and a further 22% within 24 months; Gartner places agentic AI at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. A separate Gartner survey (Sept-Oct 2025) found only 15% of IT application leaders were considering, piloting or deploying fully autonomous agents. Gartner also forecasts 40% of enterprise applications will include task-specific agents by end-2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Gartner forecasts **70% of organizations** will use autonomous AI agents by 2026
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 578 · 2025-11-29
  40. Es prontoClaudeEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Meta lanzará Llama 5 en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No model branded 'Llama 5' confirmed by Meta was found as of October 12, 2026; mainstream coverage (TechCrunch's Llama explainer, CNBC) still lists Llama 4 (April 2025) as the latest Llama generation. On April 8, 2026 Meta Superintelligence Labs launched Muse Spark, a proprietary model, and in August 2026 Meta released an open-weight model called Muse Glimmer and said an open-weight version of Muse Spark 1.2 would follow in coming weeks. Several low-credibility aggregator sites claim a '600B Llama 5' release in April 2026, but these are not corroborated by Meta or major outlets.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Llama 5 (Meta)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, línea 588 · 2025-11-29
  41. Es prontoGrokEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2031

    El mercado de la IA alcanzará cerca de 1 billón de dólares en 2031, con un crecimiento anual del 26,6 %.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The target year is 2031, so the outcome cannot be measured yet. Market-research estimates diverge widely by definition: Fortune Business Insights sizes the AI market at ~$376B in 2026 growing 26.6% CAGR to ~$2.48T by 2034; MarketsandMarkets (June 2026) estimates ~$602B in 2026 rising to ~$3.64T by 2033 (29.3% CAGR); SkyQuest projects ~$2.36T by 2031. Several current forecasts therefore put the market above $1T before 2031.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    26.6% annual growth pushing AI toward a $1T market by 2031
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, línea 18 · 2025-11-28
  42. Es prontoGrokEE. UU.· Plazo: 30 de noviembre de 2027

    El predominio relativo de GPT-5.1/OpenAI podría debilitarse en 1-2 años por la regulación de privacidad y las sólidas alternativas abiertas.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: As of October 2026 the evidence on OpenAI's relative position is mixed: Anthropic leads in several enterprise measures (Ramp AI Index Aug/Sep 2026: 43.8% of businesses paying Anthropic vs 39.8% OpenAI; Menlo late-2025: ~40% vs 27% of enterprise API spend), while WSJ-reported OpenRouter data show OpenAI's coding/productivity traffic share rising from under 25% to almost 50% during 2026. Open-weight models grew strongly in usage (Vercel AI Gateway: 11% to 62% of token volume April–August 2026). On regulation, the EU's Digital Omnibus (in force July 27, 2026) deferred AI Act high-risk obligations to Dec 2027/Aug 2028; no regulatory action specifically curbing OpenAI's market position was found. The prediction window runs to November 2027.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    However, regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and a surge of powerful open alternatives could weaken its relative dominance within 1–2 years.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, línea 87 · 2025-11-28
  43. Es prontoGrokEE. UU.· Plazo: 30 de noviembre de 2027

    Las integraciones de Gemini en los sistemas operativos pueden consolidar su dominio entre los usuarios generales en los próximos 1-2 años.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The Gemini app grew from >750M monthly active users at the start of 2026 to >900M at Google I/O (May 2026) and passed 1 billion MAU in August 2026, per Google. In January 2026 Apple agreed to license a custom Gemini model to power a rebuilt Siri, and at WWDC (June 8, 2026) Apple presented Apple Foundation Models built with Gemini for iOS 27. Third-party traffic data show ChatGPT still leads but its share fell (Similarweb: ~61.7% of AI web traffic in Feb 2026 vs 75.7% a year earlier; Gemini ~24%); the 1–2 year window runs to late 2027.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Conversely, OS integrations may solidify dominance in the next 1–2 years for mainstream users.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, línea 133 · 2025-11-28
  44. Es prontoGrokEE. UU.· Plazo: 30 de noviembre de 2027

    Llama 4 podría convertirse en el estándar de eficiencia por defecto para muchas cargas de trabajo en los próximos 1-2 años.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Llama 4 (released April 2025) received mixed-to-poor reviews and did not gain broad enterprise adoption. On Hugging Face, Alibaba's Qwen surpassed Llama in cumulative downloads by September 2025, and by March 2026 Qwen had ~942.1M downloads versus Llama's ~476.0M. Reports in late 2025 said Meta was using Qwen models in training its next model ('Avocado'), and Chinese open-weight models (Qwen, DeepSeek V4) dominate open-weight usage discussions in 2026. The deadline (Nov 2027) has not passed.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): No se cumplióQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Could become the default efficiency standard for many workloads in the next 1–2 years.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, línea 180 · 2025-11-28
  45. Es prontoMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2035

    El mercado de la IA multimodal crecerá de 3.300 millones de dólares en 2025 a casi 94.000 millones en 2035.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The 2035 target cannot be measured as of October 2026. Analyst estimates of the 2025 multimodal AI market base vary: about $2.2B (The Business Research Company, $2.83B in 2026), $2.6B (P&S Intelligence, to $23.3B by 2032 at 36.8% CAGR), and $3.09B (to $52.87B by 2034 at 37.1% CAGR). These current forecasts are lower than the ~$94B-by-2035 trajectory cited in the prediction.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    the whole sector is projected to surge from $3.3 billion in 2025 to nearly $94 billion by 2035.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 53 · 2025-11-29
  46. Es prontoMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    Más del 30 % de las aplicaciones empresariales incorporará agentes multimodales en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No direct 2026 measurement of the share of enterprise applications embedding multimodal agents was found as of October 12, 2026. The closest benchmark is Gartner's forecast (Aug 26, 2025) that 40% of enterprise apps would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026 (from under 5% in 2025), which does not specify multimodality and has not yet been measured. Proxies: McKinsey State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) found agent deployment at 40% of large companies and 22% of smaller ones; Gartner-cited 2026 data put organizations with deployed agents at 17%.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    with more than 30 % of enterprise apps expected to embed multimodal agents by 2026.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 89 · 2025-11-29
  47. Es prontoMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2028· citando a VC Cafe

    El gasto mundial en IA crecerá de 307.000 millones de dólares en 2025 a 632.000 millones en 2028.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Gartner (January 15, 2026) forecast worldwide AI spending of $2.52 trillion in 2026 (+44% YoY), raised in May 2026 to $2.59 trillion (+47%), with infrastructure over 45% of the total. These figures use a much broader definition than the $307B (2025) baseline cited by VC Cafe (an IDC-style AI solutions figure), so they are not directly comparable; no 2028 actuals exist yet.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    VC Cafe notes $307 billion in global AI spending this year, projected to balloon to $632 billion by 2028.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 176 · 2025-11-29
  48. Es prontoMetaEE. UU.· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    El 82 % de las empresas planea incorporar agentes de IA en 2026.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No survey directly measures the '82% of firms embedding agents by 2026' figure (which was a plan/intention statistic). Closest 2026 measures: KPMG's Q2 2026 AI Pulse reported enterprise AI agent deployment rising from 23% to 56% in one quarter; Gartner's 2026 CIO survey found 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents and 64% planned to within two years; McKinsey's State of AI (Nov 2025) found 62% experimenting with agents but only 23% scaling them in at least one function. Results vary widely by definition of 'agent' and 'deployed'.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): En parteClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): En parte
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Agentic AI – 82 % of firms plan to embed agents by 2026;
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, línea 196 · 2025-11-29
  49. Es prontoKimiChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026· citando a Sam Altman, Elon Musk

    La AGI llegará en 2026 (afirmación atribuida a Altman y Musk).

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: There is no agreed definition or independent test of AGI, so its arrival cannot be measured directly. After OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra (public September 4, 2026), OpenAI President Greg Brockman said it was 'not unreasonable to feel that we are now in the AGI era' while describing AGI as a 'mission concept' rather than a contractual trigger; on August 27, 2026 Sam Altman said 'by the end of 2026, we will have an internal system that we call AGI'. Other leaders disagree: Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind) has said AGI is still years away, while Musk and Dario Amodei have predicted systems by end-2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    AGI Timing: Claims of "AGI by 2026" (Altman, Musk) vs. more pessimistic views. If AGI emerges, all rankings become obsolete overnight.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, línea 507 · 2025-11-29
  50. Es prontoKimiChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    La implementación de la Ley de IA de la UE en 2026 puede remodelar el mercado de modelos de IA.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: EU AI Act general-purpose AI obligations have applied since August 2, 2025; Amazon, Anthropic, Google, IBM, Microsoft, OpenAI, Mistral and Aleph Alpha signed the GPAI Code of Practice, xAI signed only the safety chapter, and Meta declined. Under the Digital Omnibus, EU institutions provisionally agreed on May 7, 2026 to postpone high-risk system obligations from August 2026 to December 2, 2027 (standalone) and August 2, 2028 (embedded). No quantitative study found measuring a 2026 reshaping of the AI model market attributable to the Act.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    EU AI Act implementation in 2026 may reshape market.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, línea 509 · 2025-11-29
  51. Es prontoErnieChina· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 la regulación global de la IA se endurecerá, con EE. UU., la UE y China acordando estándares éticos básicos de IA.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No trilateral US-EU-China agreement on AI ethical standards has been found as of October 2026. US and Chinese officials discussed frontier-AI guardrails at the May 14-15, 2026 Beijing summit and agreed to keep talking about a best-practices protocol against misuse by non-state actors, without a binding agreement. Meanwhile regulation moved in different directions: the EU agreed on May 7, 2026 (Digital Omnibus) to postpone AI Act high-risk obligations to December 2027/August 2028, and the US administration pursued federal preemption of state AI laws (EO 14365, Dec 11, 2025; National AI Policy Framework, Mar 20, 2026).

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): No se cumplióDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    Global AI regulation will tighten, with U.S., EU, and China agreeing on basic ethical standards.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, línea 193 · 2025-11-29
  52. Es prontoLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2030· citando a UAE and Saudi Arabia (national targets)

    Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Arabia Saudí obtendrán entre el 12 y el 14 % del PIB de la IA en 2030.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: The 12-14% figures come from PwC Middle East's 2018 estimate (AI ~14% of UAE GDP, ~$96B, and ~12.4% of Saudi GDP, ~$135B, by 2030), echoed in national strategies. No official statistic measuring AI's current share of UAE or Saudi GDP was found as of October 2026; the deadline is 2030.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): Es prontoDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): Es prontoLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    UAE and Saudi Arabia target 12–14% GDP from AI by 2030
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 107 · 2025-11-29
  53. Es prontoLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 los agentes multimodales sustituirán a los chatbots de una sola tarea.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: No direct measurement shows multimodal agents replacing single-task chatbots by October 2026. A Gartner survey of 3,566 customers (Feb–Mar 2026, published July 8, 2026) found customers three times more likely to use third-party GenAI tools than company-provided chatbots for service, increasingly to take actions, and only 27% would retry a chatbot after a bad experience. Major models released in 2026 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Flash, May 19, 2026) are natively multimodal, and Gartner-cited data put organizations with deployed AI agents at 17% in 2026, indicating chatbots and agents coexist.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): En parteGrok (EE. UU.): No se cumplióClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): No se cumplióKimi (China): En parteQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): No se cumplió
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **Multimodal agents** will replace single-task chatbots.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 219 · 2025-11-29
  54. Es prontoLe ChatEuropa· Plazo: 31 de diciembre de 2026

    En 2026 aparecerá la primera empresa de IA de un billón de dólares, probablemente Microsoft o Google.

    Lo que se sabe al 12 de octubre de 2026: Microsoft (2019) and Alphabet (2020) passed $1 trillion market capitalization years before 2026; Nvidia became the first company above $5 trillion in October 2025, Alphabet reached $4 trillion on January 12-13, 2026, and Apple passed $5 trillion in July 2026. Among AI-native private firms, OpenAI closed a $122B round at an $852B valuation in March 2026 and was reported in talks at more than $1.2 trillion; Altman said its IPO will not take place in 2026.

    Gemini (EE. UU.): Es prontoGrok (EE. UU.): Es prontoClaude Sonnet (EE. UU.): En parteDeepSeek (China): Es prontoKimi (China): Es prontoQwen (China): No se cumplióLe Chat (Mistral) (Europa): Es pronto
    Texto original · Fuentes
    **The first $1T AI company** (likely Microsoft or Google).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, línea 222 · 2025-11-29

Cómo funciona la verificación

  • Fuente: los textos que cada IA escribió para el ranking de modelos de IA de 10Think (archivos del 26 al 29 de noviembre de 2025). Solo se toman pronósticos con fecha o con un claro «en 2026», al pie de la letra; los deseos vagos sin plazo quedan fuera, igual que los pronósticos sobre elecciones, guerras, sanciones y rivalidad entre países.
  • Hechos: Opus con búsqueda web averigua qué pasó realmente, con fuentes y fechas. No da veredicto.
  • Veredicto: Gemini (EE. UU.), Grok (EE. UU.), Claude Sonnet (EE. UU.), DeepSeek (China), Kimi (China), Qwen (China) y Le Chat (Mistral) (Europa) reciben el pronóstico y los hechos sin el nombre de la IA que lo hizo, y responden «se cumplió», «en parte», «no se cumplió» o «es pronto». Decide la mayoría; antes de su plazo, un pronóstico solo «falla» si todos los jueces dicen que ya no puede cumplirse; si no, sigue en «es pronto» hasta su fecha.
  • Nuevas revisiones: hasta finales de 2026, cada pronóstico en «es pronto» o «en parte» se revisa de nuevo una vez al mes y justo después de su plazo. Cada revisión se guarda con su fecha; nada se borra.
  • Algunas IA repitieron pronósticos ajenos (Gartner, Altman, gobiernos); la tarjeta dice de quién. Cuentan para la IA que decidió repetirlos. Los pronósticos con plazo posterior a 2026 siguen en «es pronto».