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Forecast check · checked Oct 12, 2026

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026

In November 2025 twelve AIs — six from the USA, five from China and one from Europe — wrote long reviews of the AI market for the 10Think rating of AI models. We copied every dated forecast word for word and check each one against what actually happened. Opus with web search gathers the facts; 7 AI judges give the verdict blind — they never see which AI made the forecast.

Came true · USA11 of 15Partly: 4 · Too early: 14 · Accuracy: 87%
Came true · China3 of 14Partly: 7 · Too early: 3 · Accuracy: 46%
Came true · Europe1 of 5Partly: 3 · Too early: 3 · Accuracy: 50%

Only forecasts already decided count (came true, partly, did not); «too early» does not. In the accuracy column «partly» counts as half.

Each AI

AISideForecastsCame truePartlyDid notToo earlyAccuracy
ClaudeUSA13630483%
QwenChina10253045%
MetaUSA84004100%
Le ChatEurope8131350%
GeminiUSA2110075%
KimiChina31002100%
ErnieChina4021133%
GrokUSA40004—
ChatGPTUSA20002—
PiUSAno dated forecasts in its text
DeepSeekChinano dated forecasts in its text
Z.aiChinano dated forecasts in its text

Every forecast

  1. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats China (government plan)

    China will establish more than 50 AI standards by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: MIIT's 2024 draft guideline targeted at least 50 sets of AI standards by 2026 plus participation in 20+ international standards. By August 2026, MIIT officials said China had formulated nearly 200 key AI standards; specific releases in 2026 include GB/Z 177-2026, a national grading standard for AI-enabled consumer devices (May 8, 2026). The 'nearly 200' figure is an official cumulative count and may include standards drafted or in progress, not only formally issued ones.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    China plans to establish **50+ AI standards** by 2026
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 579 · 2025-11-29
  2. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats McKinsey (survey)

    Enterprise AI investment will increase in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: McKinsey's 10th annual survey, 'The State of AI in 2026: On the Road to ROI' (reported Sept 1, 2026), found 60% of respondents plan to increase AI investment over the next year (the November 2025 source cited 92%). Gartner's 2026 CIO survey reported 89% of CIOs planned to increase AI spend in 2026. Other 2026 surveys (e.g., Bain: ~75% of companies raising AI investment; reports of enterprise AI budgets roughly doubling from 0.8% to 1.7% of revenue) point the same direction; realized full-year 2026 spending totals are not yet final.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Enterprise AI investment will increase (92% of companies surveyed by McKinsey)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 580 · 2025-11-29
  3. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    OpenAI will release GPT-6 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI released GPT-6 in 2026: GPT-6 Astra entered limited preview on September 3, 2026 and public release on September 4, 2026; GPT-6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna followed on September 22, 2026. On October 7, 2026 OpenAI rolled GPT-6 models with 'Intelligent UI' into ChatGPT for paid tiers, expanding to Free and Go users from October 8. Before that, the GPT-5.6 family launched July 9, 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    GPT-6 (OpenAI)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 585 · 2025-11-29
  4. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Anthropic will release Claude 5 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, described as its most capable model for the general public, on June 9, 2026, following the limited 'Project Glasswing' access program. Claude Opus 5 followed on July 24, 2026, priced at $5/$25 per million input/output tokens and positioned at roughly half the price of Fable 5. Neither model is branded simply 'Claude 5', but both carry the version number 5.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Claude 5 (Anthropic)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 586 · 2025-11-29
  5. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Google will release Gemini 3.5 or Gemini 4 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Google announced the Gemini 3.5 family at Google I/O on May 19, 2026 and shipped Gemini 3.5 Flash that day; on July 21, 2026 it added Gemini 3.6 Flash, Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite and Gemini 3.5 Flash Cyber. The flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro was promised for June 2026 but, per reports through September 20, 2026, remained in partner testing and listed as 'coming soon'. No Gemini 4 release was found as of October 12, 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Gemini 3.5/4 (Google)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 587 · 2025-11-29
  6. Came trueClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    DeepSeek will release DeepSeek-V4 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V4 (preview) on April 24, 2026 as open weights in two Mixture-of-Experts variants: V4-Pro (1.6T total / 49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B / 13B active), both with a 1M-token context window. API pricing was published at $1.74/$3.48 per million input/output tokens for V4-Pro and $0.14/$0.28 for V4-Flash. Later checkpoints (e.g. V4-Pro-0813) appeared on hosting providers.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    DeepSeek-V4 (DeepSeek)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 589 · 2025-11-29
  7. Came trueGeminiUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 no single model will be the best for every task.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Leaderboards in 2026 show a crowded frontier: in the July-August 2026 LMArena snapshots, Claude Opus 4.8 led text and coding, with Gemini 3.1 Pro and Opus 4.7 close behind, and the Elo gap between #1 and #10 was about 28 points, largely within noise. Separate arenas (text, coding, vision, etc.) and cost/latency trade-offs lead commentators to recommend choosing models by task (e.g. Claude for coding, ChatGPT for voice/image, Gemini for multimodal, open-weight models for self-hosting). 'Best for every task' is not formally measured; the evidence is leaderboard dispersion.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Looking ahead into 2026, the rational strategy is model-agnosticism. There is no single “best” model for everything:
    Gemini · Жемини Инсайтс.txt, line 442 · 2025-11-28
  8. Came trueMetaUSA· Deadline: Mar 31, 2026

    OpenAI's AWS infrastructure (under the $38B OpenAI-AWS deal) goes live by Q1 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI and AWS announced the 7-year, $38B partnership on November 3, 2025, stating OpenAI would begin using AWS compute immediately, with all targeted capacity (NVIDIA GB200/GB300 on EC2 UltraServers) to be deployed before the end of 2026 and expansion into 2027+. Reports describe OpenAI as having begun using AWS right away; no public milestone found specifically declaring the full infrastructure 'live' by Q1 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    OpenAI’s AWS infrastructure goes live (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026).
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 305 · 2025-11-29
  9. Came trueMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Anthropic begins construction of data centers in Texas and New York.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: On November 12, 2025 Anthropic announced a $50 billion US data-center investment with Fluidstack, with the first custom facilities in Texas and New York coming online through 2026 (about 2,400 construction and 800 permanent jobs). An August 31, 2026 analysis reports the New York site (Lake Mariner, a repurposed coal plant) partly online, with a 42 MW building live in early July 2026 and a 168 MW building expected late September 2026, while the Texas site (Abernathy) was under construction for H2 2026 delivery. No primary-source groundbreaking ceremony announcement was found.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Anthropic is breaking ground on data centers in Texas and New York.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 306 · 2025-11-29
  10. Came trueMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Gemini 3 will be rolled out more widely beyond early-access countries.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gemini 3 Pro launched November 18, 2025 across the Gemini app, AI Mode in Search, AI Studio and Vertex AI, and Google then expanded Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro in Search to more countries. During 2026 Google shipped successor models: Gemini 3.1 Pro, Gemini 3.5 Flash (Google I/O, May 19, 2026), and Gemini 3.6 Flash / 3.5 Flash-Lite (July 21, 2026); Gemini 3.5 Pro was still testing with partners as of late July 2026, and in September 2026 Google said Gemini 4 would come 'as soon as possible'. Access still varies by country, account and subscription.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Wider rollout of Gemini 3 beyond early-access countries.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 307 · 2025-11-29
  11. Came trueMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Inference prices for GPT-4-class models will keep falling.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Inference prices at fixed capability levels continued falling through 2026. Epoch AI analyses report prices for a constant performance level falling roughly 47% per quarter (median declines on the order of tens to hundreds of times per year since 2024). One example cited: an ARC-style result that cost $0.30 per question with o3 in January 2025 cost about $0.0004 with GPT-5.6 Luna in June 2026. Market trackers reported average token prices of ~$1.16-1.18 per million tokens in early August 2026, down 43% from $2.04 at end-May 2026; DeepSeek V4-Flash launched at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens in April 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Continued pressure on inference costs — prices for GPT-4-class models have fallen ~90 % since 2023, making AI far more accessible.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 308 · 2025-11-29
  12. Came trueQwenChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In H2 2026, distinct AI governance models will solidify across the US, EU and Asia.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: By October 2026 the three regions followed visibly different tracks. The US issued a December 11, 2025 executive order ('Ensuring a National Policy Framework for AI') directing a DOJ task force to challenge state AI laws and pushing a minimally burdensome federal approach. The EU kept its risk-based AI Act but agreed (provisional deal May 7, 2026) to delay high-risk obligations to Dec 2, 2027 / Aug 2, 2028. In Asia, South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026, while China continued issuing state AI standards (nearly 200 key standards per MIIT, Aug 2026).

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Regional divergence: Distinct AI governance models will solidify across US, EU, and Asia
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 441 · 2025-11-29
  13. Came trueQwenChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In H2 2026, tight integration between AI chips and model architectures will become a competitive advantage.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Chip-model co-design was a visible competitive theme in 2026: Google sells its in-house Ironwood (TPUv7) capacity externally, with Anthropic committing to up to one million TPUs (announced Oct 2025) and Meta reported to have signed a multibillion-dollar TPU deal in February 2026. OpenAI and Broadcom (announced Oct 13, 2025) are co-designing custom accelerators, with 10 GW to be deployed starting H2 2026 and first racks targeted for late 2026. 'Competitive advantage' itself is not directly measurable; these are the closest indicators.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Hardware-software co-design: Tight integration between AI chips and model architectures will become competitive advantage
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 442 · 2025-11-29
  14. Came trueKimiChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Image generation, still separate from main models (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney), is expected to be integrated into them in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Image generation is now natively integrated into the main assistants: OpenAI released gpt-image-2 on April 21, 2026 and 'ChatGPT Images 2.0' to all ChatGPT plans on April 22, 2026 (native, with reasoning before generation), succeeding the 2025 GPT-4o native image generation that replaced DALL-E 3 in ChatGPT. Google's 'Nano Banana' line is Gemini's native image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image, Gemini 3 Pro Image, Gemini 3.1 Flash Image). Midjourney remains a separate product.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): Came trueClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Image generation still separate (DALL-E 3, Imagen, Midjourney) but integration expected in 2026.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, line 496 · 2025-11-29
  15. Came trueLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 AI regulation will intensify, with the US, EU and China all drafting new AI laws.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: All three jurisdictions produced new AI legal measures in 2025-2026, though in different directions. China's amended Cybersecurity Law with its first AI-specific article took effect January 1, 2026. The EU reached a provisional Digital Omnibus agreement on May 7, 2026 amending the AI Act (delaying high-risk obligations to Dec 2027/Aug 2028 and adding a ban on AI 'nudifier'/CSAM tools). In the US, the White House issued a National AI Policy Framework on March 20, 2026 and a House discussion draft 'Great American AI Act of 2026' (June 4, 2026) proposed a 3-year preemption of state AI-development laws; no comprehensive federal AI law had passed as of October 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    **AI regulation will intensify** (US, EU, China all drafting new laws).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 221 · 2025-11-29
  16. PartlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Frontier model API prices will be cut by an additional 50% or more in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Price moves in 2026 were mixed rather than uniform. OpenAI cut GPT-5.6 Sol (its frontier model) from $5/$30 to $4/$20 per 1M input/output tokens in August 2026 for a three-month period (~20-33%), after cutting mid-tier Terra by 20% and the small Luna model by 80% on July 30, 2026. Industry trackers describe a bifurcated market: sharp deflation in cheaper tiers (a token-expenditure index fell ~43% from late May to early August 2026) while top-tier frontier list prices rose relative to early 2026 (e.g., GPT-5.6 Sol listed at $5/$30 before the cut, vs GPT-5 at $1.25/$10 in 2025). No single authoritative index shows a 50%+ cut in frontier API list prices during 2026.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    Additional 50%+ price cuts on frontier model APIs
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 581 · 2025-11-29
  17. PartlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 Anthropic will gain ground in the enterprise market, Google in multimodal, and specialized vertical models (healthcare, legal, finance) will gain momentum.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Menlo Ventures' December 2025 report put Anthropic at 40% of enterprise LLM API spend vs OpenAI 27% and Google 21% (Google up from 20% in July 2025). Ramp's AI Index (card/bill-pay data from 50,000+ US businesses) showed Anthropic at 34.4% business adoption in April 2026, overtaking OpenAI's 32.3% for the first time. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro was reported to top most major benchmarks in spring 2026; no single authoritative 2026 measure of 'multimodal leadership' or of vertical-model momentum (healthcare/legal/finance) was found.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    **Gaining:** Anthropic (enterprise dominance), Google (multimodal leadership), specialized vertical models (healthcare, legal, finance)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 593 · 2025-11-29
  18. PartlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 OpenAI will keep losing enterprise market share and pure open-source adoption will stall.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Menlo Ventures' late-2025 data put Anthropic at about 40% of US enterprise LLM API spend versus OpenAI at 27% (OpenAI had ~50% in 2023). In the Ramp AI Index for August/September 2026, 43.8% of Ramp business customers paid Anthropic vs 39.8% for OpenAI; however, a WSJ analysis of OpenRouter data (reported Oct 9, 2026) found OpenAI's share of coding/productivity traffic rose from under 25% at the start of 2026 to almost 50% by September. On open source, Constellation Research (Aug 24, 2026) cited Vercel AI Gateway data showing open-weight models rising from 11% of token volume in April 2026 to 62% by August 22, 2026, though under 4% of spend.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    **Facing Pressure:** OpenAI (enterprise share erosion), pure open-source plays (adoption stalling)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 595 · 2025-11-29
  19. PartlyGeminiUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Companies will continue migrating from GPT-4-class APIs to open-weights Llama 4 and Qwen 3 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: An Enterprise Technology Research survey (September 2026, ~200 respondents) found open-weight models handle 34% of enterprise AI token usage, up from 23% a year earlier; 42% of respondents run open-weight models in production, and 60% of those have moved some workloads off proprietary APIs, while 93% say proprietary usage keeps growing. Google's Gemma overtook Meta's Llama as the most deployed open-weight family in that survey (Llama production use fell from 55% to 35% since July), and Qwen has the largest derivative ecosystem (>151,000 derived repos). So migration toward open weights is measured, but the leading families shifted away from Llama 4 specifically.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    More and more companies are migrating from GPT-4-class APIs to Llama 4 and Qwen 3 to gain:
    Gemini · Жемини Инсайтс.txt, line 418 · 2025-11-28
  20. PartlyQwenChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Anthropic may expand Claude's multimodal capabilities in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: On April 17, 2026 Anthropic launched Claude Design (Anthropic Labs, powered by Claude Opus 4.7), which generates visual prototypes, slides and one-pagers on a live canvas for paid subscribers. Claude also has a voice mode (launched in beta May 2025) and image/document input; as of 2026 reporting, Claude still offers no native image, audio or video generation. Claude Fable 5 (June 2026) and Opus 5 (July 2026) were positioned mainly on long-running agentic, coding and knowledge-work tasks.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Came trueKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    May expand multimodal capabilities in 2026 to counter Google’s advantage, but likely to maintain focus on high-value professional applications.
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 66 · 2025-11-29
  21. PartlyQwenChina· Deadline: Jun 30, 2026

    In H1 2026, global chip shortages may limit AI capability advancement.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: In H1 2026 the main hardware bottleneck was memory and packaging rather than GPU dies: SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron reported 2026 HBM output essentially sold out, DRAM contract prices rose ~93-98% in Q1 2026, and data-center GPU lead times were reported at 9-12 months. Compute scarcity hit AI services: Anthropic tightened Claude peak-hour usage limits in late March 2026 and in May 2026 contracted all of SpaceX/xAI's Colossus 1 (~220,000 Nvidia GPUs); GitHub paused new Copilot sign-ups in April 2026 citing compute demand. At the same time frontier releases continued (DeepSeek V4 in April, GPT-5.6 in July, GPT-6 in September) and Nvidia reported record Q2 FY27 revenue of $96.2B (data center $89.0B).

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Came trueLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    Hardware constraints: Global chip shortages may limit AI capability advancement despite algorithmic improvements
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 434 · 2025-11-29
  22. PartlyQwenChina· Deadline: Jun 30, 2026

    In H1 2026, organizations will shift from AI experimentation to production deployment at scale.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (reported Sept 1, 2026) found 44% of organizations scaling AI across the enterprise, up from 38% a year earlier (54% of $1B+ companies, about one-third of smaller firms), with only ~6% qualifying as high performers with measurable bottom-line impact. Gartner-cited 2026 data showed only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, and Gartner (Sept 29, 2026) predicted many vendor-built agentic deployments will be abandoned by 2028. No single direct measure of a 'shift to production at scale' in H1 2026 exists; these are the closest proxies.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): Came trueQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    Enterprise maturity: Organizations will shift from AI experimentation to production deployment at scale
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 436 · 2025-11-29
  23. PartlyQwenChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In H2 2026, industry standards will emerge for multimodal interaction protocols.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Agent-interoperability standards consolidated under the Linux Foundation: Anthropic donated MCP to the Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF, founded December 2025 with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google among members), and Google's A2A protocol is also hosted by the Linux Foundation. MCP Apps (January 26, 2026) added interactive UI returns, and the MCP 2026 roadmap lists first-class audio/video modalities. No dedicated, broadly adopted standard specifically for multimodal (voice/vision) interaction protocols was found as of October 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    Multimodal standardization: Industry standards will emerge for multimodal interaction protocols
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 439 · 2025-11-29
  24. PartlyQwenChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In H2 2026, marketplaces for AI agents and workflows will become mainstream.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Several large platform-run AI agent marketplaces launched or expanded in 2026: Google Cloud launched an Agent Marketplace in April 2026, Microsoft an Agent Store inside Microsoft 365 Copilot in May 2026, and AWS launched an AI agent marketplace on July 15, 2026 (AWS Summit New York) with Anthropic as a launch partner. AWS Marketplace's agents category (opened July 2025) grew from ~800 to over 2,100 listings by December 2025, and Salesforce AgentExchange launched with ~200 partners. 'Mainstream' has no standard metric; there is no independent measurement of enterprise purchasing share via such marketplaces.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Came trueDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Came true
    Original words · Sources
    Agent economy: Marketplaces for AI agents and workflows will become mainstream
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 440 · 2025-11-29
  25. PartlyErnieChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 AI agents will act independently, e.g. booking vacations and managing finances without human input.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Agentic transactions began appearing in 2026 but largely with human confirmation and in pilots: Visa launched its 'Agentic Ready' program on March 17, 2026 with 21 European issuers, an agent acting for a Santander customer completed a Visa card purchase in March 2026, and Mastercard took Agent Pay live in Portugal and the Netherlands in May 2026. In travel, Google ran a limited US test of agentic hotel booking in AI Mode while agentic flight booking had not launched; Priceline called its agent 'fully agentic' in June 2026. OpenAI discontinued ChatGPT's Instant Checkout on March 4, 2026, redirecting purchases to merchant sites. No broad consumer use of agents managing finances without human input was documented.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    AI agents will act independently (e.g., booking vacations, managing finances without human input).
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, line 191 · 2025-11-29
  26. PartlyErnieChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 quantum AI experiments may lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery and climate modeling.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: 2026 saw research collaborations and demonstrations rather than a widely recognized drug or climate breakthrough attributable to quantum AI: Cleveland Clinic, RIKEN and IBM simulated protein complexes up to 12,635 atoms with hybrid quantum-classical methods; IonQ with AstraZeneca, AWS and NVIDIA reported a 20x speedup on a Suzuki-Miyaura reaction workflow; Roche-Quantinuum and Boehringer Ingelheim-Google partnerships target early-stage drug discovery; IBM and AMD announced quantum-centric supercomputing aimed at drug discovery and climate modeling. No quantum-derived drug candidate or climate-model result in production use was found.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Quantum AI experiments may lead to breakthroughs in drug discovery and climate modeling.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, line 192 · 2025-11-29
  27. PartlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats India (national AI initiative goal)

    India will train 1 million AI engineers by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The '1 million' figure traces to a MeitY-linked report ('India's AI Revolution: A Roadmap to Viksit Bharat') projecting demand for about 1 million AI professionals by 2026, rather than a count of engineers trained. Reported progress: IndiaAI/FutureSkills programs had ~8.65 lakh (865,000) enrolled or trained, including ~3.2 lakh in AI/Big Data; FutureSkills PRIME had 18.56 lakh sign-ups and ~3.37 lakh completions; the YUVA AI for All literacy course had ~8.5 million enrolments by July 2026. On August 15, 2026 the Prime Minister announced a drive to train 1 crore (10 million) youth in AI skills within a year. No official count of 1 million trained AI engineers was found.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    aims to train 1 million AI engineers by 2026.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 106 · 2025-11-29
  28. PartlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 AGI hype will peak, but no true AGI will be achieved yet.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: As of October 2026 no lab or independent body has declared AGI achieved; frontier models from Google, OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI reportedly scored under 1% on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark where humans score near 100%. Leaders' timelines diverge: Amodei and Musk have pointed to around end-2026/2027, Hassabis reiterated ~2030 at Stanford in June 2026 and called AI 'overhyped in the short term', and Altman said AGI may have 'gone whooshing by'. Whether hype 'peaked' has no direct metric.

    Gemini (USA): Came trueGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): PartlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    **AGI hype will peak** (but no true AGI yet).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 218 · 2025-11-29
  29. PartlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 on-device AI (Apple, Qualcomm) will reduce dependency on the cloud.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: At WWDC on June 8, 2026 Apple announced next-generation Apple Foundation Models (built with Google Gemini) split between on-device Apple silicon and Private Cloud Compute, adding a larger (~20B-parameter, reported) on-device model for high-end devices and a Core AI framework for local models; heavier tasks still route to Apple's cloud. Qualcomm and Samsung continue to market on-device NPU capability. No industry-wide measurement showing a reduction in cloud inference dependency was found; cloud AI infrastructure spending kept rising (Gartner: infrastructure >45% of $2.59T AI spend in 2026).

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): PartlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    **On-device AI** (Apple, Qualcomm) will reduce cloud dependency.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 220 · 2025-11-29
  30. Did notQwenChina· Deadline: Jan 31, 2026

    Full enforcement of the EU AI Act begins in January 2026, requiring compliance documentation for high-risk AI systems.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The EU AI Act did not reach 'full enforcement' in January 2026; its original schedule set August 2, 2026 for most high-risk (Annex III) obligations. The Digital Omnibus on AI, proposed in November 2025, was published in the Official Journal on July 24, 2026 and entered into force July 27, 2026, deferring Annex III high-risk obligations to December 2, 2027 and Annex I (product-embedded) high-risk obligations to August 2, 2028. Prohibited practices (Feb 2025), AI literacy, GPAI obligations (Aug 2025) and Article 50 transparency duties stay on their original schedule.

    Gemini (USA): Did notGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    EU AI Act implementation: Full enforcement begins January 2026, requiring compliance documentation for high-risk AI systems
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 349 · 2025-11-29
  31. Did notQwenChina· Deadline: Jun 30, 2026

    In H1 2026, EU AI Act compliance deadlines will force significant changes in model deployment strategies.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Instead of new obligations biting in H1 2026, the EU adopted the 'Digital Omnibus on AI': provisional agreement on May 7, 2026, Parliament vote June 16, 2026, publication in the Official Journal July 24 and entry into force July 27, 2026. It deferred stand-alone high-risk (Annex III) obligations from August 2, 2026 to December 2, 2027, and product-embedded high-risk (Annex I) from August 2027 to August 2028, and gave existing systems until December 2, 2026 for AI-content labelling. GPAI model obligations had applied since August 2, 2025.

    Gemini (USA): Did notGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Regulatory enforcement: EU AI Act compliance deadlines will force significant changes in model deployment strategies
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 433 · 2025-11-29
  32. Did notQwenChina· Deadline: Jun 30, 2026

    In H1 2026, the number of independent AI startups will fall by 15–20% through acquisitions and closures.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No census of the number of independent AI startups exists, so a 15-20% reduction cannot be measured directly. Acquisition activity rose: Crunchbase counted 195 AI startup acquisitions early in 2026 (already 14% above all of 2025, per reporting), OpenAI made 8 acquisitions in Jan-Apr 2026, and SpaceX's reported ~$60B purchase of Cursor/Anysphere closed in Q2 2026. SimpleClosure's H1 2026 report said AI companies were only 14.4% of its shutdowns and it saw its fewest AI closures ever, while AI took $355.9B of $412.7B US startup investment in H1 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Did notGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Consolidation wave: Expect 15–20% reduction in independent AI startups through acquisitions and closures
    Qwen · Квен Инсайтс.txt, line 435 · 2025-11-29
  33. Did notErnieChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 AI regulation will tighten, with the EU AI Act and the U.S. AI Bill of Rights setting global standards.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The 'AI Bill of Rights' was a non-binding 2022 White House blueprint; it was removed from active White House policy after January 2025, and Executive Order 14110 was rescinded, replaced by a deregulatory approach (AI Action Plan, July 2025; December 11, 2025 order targeting state AI laws). In the EU, the AI Act remains in force but the May 2026 Digital Omnibus deal delayed high-risk obligations to 2027-2028. South Korea's AI Basic Act took effect January 22, 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Did notGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Regulation will tighten, with EU’s AI Act and U.S. AI Bill of Rights setting global standards.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, line 199 · 2025-11-29
  34. Did notLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats Sam Altman

    Sam Altman's AI Chip Alliance will break NVIDIA's monopoly on AI chips by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No entity called 'AI Chip Alliance' led by Sam Altman was found; OpenAI's chip efforts in 2026 consist of a Broadcom co-designed custom accelerator (10 GW, deployment starting H2 2026, completion by end-2029) and a 6 GW AMD MI450 agreement starting H2 2026. Nvidia's share of AI accelerator revenue in 2026 is estimated at roughly 75-81% (Silicon Analysts/IDC), down from ~90%, with some researchers projecting ~70% by end-2026. Nvidia reported record Q2 FY2027 revenue of $96.2B (data center $89.0B, +117% y/y) for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 and guided ~$108B for the next quarter.

    Gemini (USA): Did notGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Sam Altman’s **AI Chip Alliance** aims to break NVIDIA’s monopoly by 2026.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 126 · 2025-11-29
  35. Too earlyChatGPTUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2029· repeats Citigroup

    AI-related capital expenditure will reach $2.8 trillion by 2029.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Citigroup raised its forecast in late September 2025 to more than $2.8 trillion of cumulative Big Tech AI infrastructure spending through 2029 (from $2.3T), with hyperscaler AI capex of about $490B in 2026. In 2026 the four largest hyperscalers (Amazon ~$200B, Microsoft ~$190B, Alphabet $180-190B, Meta $125-145B) guided to roughly $700-725B of combined 2026 capex, up ~77% from ~$410B in 2025, and Wall Street expects 2027 capex above $1 trillion. The 2029 cumulative total cannot be measured until 2029; current run-rates are above Citi's 2026 interim estimate.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Citigroup estimating $2.8 trillion in AI-related capex by 2029.
    ChatGPT · ЧатЖПТ Инсайтс.txt, line 57 · 2025-11-28
  36. Too earlyChatGPTUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2035· repeats Goldman Sachs

    AI will add up to $20 trillion of additional value to the U.S. economy over the next decade.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The $20 trillion figure comes from a Goldman Sachs analysis reported in November 2025, estimating widespread AI adoption could add about $20 trillion of value to the US economy (including ~$8 trillion of capital income) and lift US labor productivity ~15% over roughly a decade. The window runs to about 2035, so the outcome cannot be measured as of October 2026; only early indicators exist (e.g., heavy AI capex such as Amazon's ~$98B H1 2026 capex).

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Goldman Sachs argues that the AI boom is “barely begun,” projecting up to $20 trillion of additional value for the U.S. economy alone over the next decade.
    ChatGPT · ЧатЖПТ Инсайтс.txt, line 57 · 2025-11-28
  37. Too earlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats Gartner

    40% of enterprise applications will use task-specific AI agents by 2026 (up from 5% in 2025).

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gartner's August 26, 2025 press release forecast that 40% of enterprise applications would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026, up from under 5% in 2025; no Gartner measurement of the actual 2026 share of enterprise applications with embedded agents was found as of October 12, 2026. Closest proxies: Gartner survey data cited in 2026 that only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents (60%+ planning to within two years), and McKinsey's State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) reporting AI-agent deployment at 40% of large ($1B+) companies (up from 27%) and 22% of smaller ones. Gartner on Sept 29, 2026 also predicted 70% of enterprises will abandon agentic AI built by vendor forward-deployed engineering by 2028.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Gartner predicts **40% of enterprise applications** will leverage task-specific AI agents by 2026, up from 5% in 2025.
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 531 · 2025-11-29
  38. Too earlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2027

    OpenAI revenue is projected to reach $100B by 2027.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate was reported at about $25B at end of February 2026 (vs $21.4B at end-2025), and Reuters/Bloomberg-sourced reports in late September/early October 2026 put it near $70B, up >70% since early July (unaudited, anonymous-source figures). Full-year 2026 recognized revenue is projected far lower than the run rate (one cited internal projection ~$29.4B). Sam Altman has reportedly floated $100B revenue by 2027; the deadline (end-2027) has not passed and no 2027 actuals exist.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    | **OpenAI** | ~$13B ARR | ~$500B | $100B projected by 2027 |
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 557 · 2025-11-29
  39. Too earlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats Gartner

    70% of organizations will use autonomous AI agents by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: There is no direct measurement of '70% of organizations using autonomous AI agents' in 2026. Gartner's 2026 CIO survey (reported mid-2026) found only 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents, with 42% planning to within 12 months and a further 22% within 24 months; Gartner places agentic AI at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. A separate Gartner survey (Sept-Oct 2025) found only 15% of IT application leaders were considering, piloting or deploying fully autonomous agents. Gartner also forecasts 40% of enterprise applications will include task-specific agents by end-2026.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Gartner forecasts **70% of organizations** will use autonomous AI agents by 2026
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 578 · 2025-11-29
  40. Too earlyClaudeUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    Meta will release Llama 5 in 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No model branded 'Llama 5' confirmed by Meta was found as of October 12, 2026; mainstream coverage (TechCrunch's Llama explainer, CNBC) still lists Llama 4 (April 2025) as the latest Llama generation. On April 8, 2026 Meta Superintelligence Labs launched Muse Spark, a proprietary model, and in August 2026 Meta released an open-weight model called Muse Glimmer and said an open-weight version of Muse Spark 1.2 would follow in coming weeks. Several low-credibility aggregator sites claim a '600B Llama 5' release in April 2026, but these are not corroborated by Meta or major outlets.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Llama 5 (Meta)
    Claude · Клауде Инсайтс.txt, line 588 · 2025-11-29
  41. Too earlyGrokUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2031

    The AI market will reach about $1 trillion by 2031, growing 26.6% annually.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The target year is 2031, so the outcome cannot be measured yet. Market-research estimates diverge widely by definition: Fortune Business Insights sizes the AI market at ~$376B in 2026 growing 26.6% CAGR to ~$2.48T by 2034; MarketsandMarkets (June 2026) estimates ~$602B in 2026 rising to ~$3.64T by 2033 (29.3% CAGR); SkyQuest projects ~$2.36T by 2031. Several current forecasts therefore put the market above $1T before 2031.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    26.6% annual growth pushing AI toward a $1T market by 2031
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, line 18 · 2025-11-28
  42. Too earlyGrokUSA· Deadline: Nov 30, 2027

    GPT-5.1/OpenAI's relative dominance could weaken within 1–2 years due to privacy regulation and strong open alternatives.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: As of October 2026 the evidence on OpenAI's relative position is mixed: Anthropic leads in several enterprise measures (Ramp AI Index Aug/Sep 2026: 43.8% of businesses paying Anthropic vs 39.8% OpenAI; Menlo late-2025: ~40% vs 27% of enterprise API spend), while WSJ-reported OpenRouter data show OpenAI's coding/productivity traffic share rising from under 25% to almost 50% during 2026. Open-weight models grew strongly in usage (Vercel AI Gateway: 11% to 62% of token volume April–August 2026). On regulation, the EU's Digital Omnibus (in force July 27, 2026) deferred AI Act high-risk obligations to Dec 2027/Aug 2028; no regulatory action specifically curbing OpenAI's market position was found. The prediction window runs to November 2027.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    However, regulatory scrutiny on data privacy and a surge of powerful open alternatives could weaken its relative dominance within 1–2 years.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, line 87 · 2025-11-28
  43. Too earlyGrokUSA· Deadline: Nov 30, 2027

    Gemini's OS integrations may solidify its dominance among mainstream users in the next 1–2 years.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The Gemini app grew from >750M monthly active users at the start of 2026 to >900M at Google I/O (May 2026) and passed 1 billion MAU in August 2026, per Google. In January 2026 Apple agreed to license a custom Gemini model to power a rebuilt Siri, and at WWDC (June 8, 2026) Apple presented Apple Foundation Models built with Gemini for iOS 27. Third-party traffic data show ChatGPT still leads but its share fell (Similarweb: ~61.7% of AI web traffic in Feb 2026 vs 75.7% a year earlier; Gemini ~24%); the 1–2 year window runs to late 2027.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    Conversely, OS integrations may solidify dominance in the next 1–2 years for mainstream users.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, line 133 · 2025-11-28
  44. Too earlyGrokUSA· Deadline: Nov 30, 2027

    Llama 4 could become the default efficiency standard for many workloads in the next 1–2 years.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Llama 4 (released April 2025) received mixed-to-poor reviews and did not gain broad enterprise adoption. On Hugging Face, Alibaba's Qwen surpassed Llama in cumulative downloads by September 2025, and by March 2026 Qwen had ~942.1M downloads versus Llama's ~476.0M. Reports in late 2025 said Meta was using Qwen models in training its next model ('Avocado'), and Chinese open-weight models (Qwen, DeepSeek V4) dominate open-weight usage discussions in 2026. The deadline (Nov 2027) has not passed.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Did notQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Could become the default efficiency standard for many workloads in the next 1–2 years.
    Grok · Грок Инсайтс.txt, line 180 · 2025-11-28
  45. Too earlyMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2035

    The multimodal AI market will grow from $3.3B in 2025 to nearly $94B by 2035.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The 2035 target cannot be measured as of October 2026. Analyst estimates of the 2025 multimodal AI market base vary: about $2.2B (The Business Research Company, $2.83B in 2026), $2.6B (P&S Intelligence, to $23.3B by 2032 at 36.8% CAGR), and $3.09B (to $52.87B by 2034 at 37.1% CAGR). These current forecasts are lower than the ~$94B-by-2035 trajectory cited in the prediction.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    the whole sector is projected to surge from $3.3 billion in 2025 to nearly $94 billion by 2035.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 53 · 2025-11-29
  46. Too earlyMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    More than 30% of enterprise apps will embed multimodal agents by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No direct 2026 measurement of the share of enterprise applications embedding multimodal agents was found as of October 12, 2026. The closest benchmark is Gartner's forecast (Aug 26, 2025) that 40% of enterprise apps would feature task-specific AI agents by end-2026 (from under 5% in 2025), which does not specify multimodality and has not yet been measured. Proxies: McKinsey State of AI 2026 (Sept 1, 2026) found agent deployment at 40% of large companies and 22% of smaller ones; Gartner-cited 2026 data put organizations with deployed agents at 17%.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    with more than 30 % of enterprise apps expected to embed multimodal agents by 2026.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 89 · 2025-11-29
  47. Too earlyMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2028· repeats VC Cafe

    Global AI spending will grow from $307B in 2025 to $632B by 2028.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Gartner (January 15, 2026) forecast worldwide AI spending of $2.52 trillion in 2026 (+44% YoY), raised in May 2026 to $2.59 trillion (+47%), with infrastructure over 45% of the total. These figures use a much broader definition than the $307B (2025) baseline cited by VC Cafe (an IDC-style AI solutions figure), so they are not directly comparable; no 2028 actuals exist yet.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    VC Cafe notes $307 billion in global AI spending this year, projected to balloon to $632 billion by 2028.
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 176 · 2025-11-29
  48. Too earlyMetaUSA· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    82% of firms plan to embed AI agents by 2026.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No survey directly measures the '82% of firms embedding agents by 2026' figure (which was a plan/intention statistic). Closest 2026 measures: KPMG's Q2 2026 AI Pulse reported enterprise AI agent deployment rising from 23% to 56% in one quarter; Gartner's 2026 CIO survey found 17% of organizations had deployed AI agents and 64% planned to within two years; McKinsey's State of AI (Nov 2025) found 62% experimenting with agents but only 23% scaling them in at least one function. Results vary widely by definition of 'agent' and 'deployed'.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): PartlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Partly
    Original words · Sources
    Agentic AI – 82 % of firms plan to embed agents by 2026;
    Meta · Мета Инсайтс.txt, line 196 · 2025-11-29
  49. Too earlyKimiChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026· repeats Sam Altman, Elon Musk

    AGI will arrive by 2026 (claim attributed to Altman and Musk).

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: There is no agreed definition or independent test of AGI, so its arrival cannot be measured directly. After OpenAI released GPT-6 Astra (public September 4, 2026), OpenAI President Greg Brockman said it was 'not unreasonable to feel that we are now in the AGI era' while describing AGI as a 'mission concept' rather than a contractual trigger; on August 27, 2026 Sam Altman said 'by the end of 2026, we will have an internal system that we call AGI'. Other leaders disagree: Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind) has said AGI is still years away, while Musk and Dario Amodei have predicted systems by end-2026.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    AGI Timing: Claims of "AGI by 2026" (Altman, Musk) vs. more pessimistic views. If AGI emerges, all rankings become obsolete overnight.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, line 507 · 2025-11-29
  50. Too earlyKimiChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    EU AI Act implementation in 2026 may reshape the AI model market.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: EU AI Act general-purpose AI obligations have applied since August 2, 2025; Amazon, Anthropic, Google, IBM, Microsoft, OpenAI, Mistral and Aleph Alpha signed the GPAI Code of Practice, xAI signed only the safety chapter, and Meta declined. Under the Digital Omnibus, EU institutions provisionally agreed on May 7, 2026 to postpone high-risk system obligations from August 2026 to December 2, 2027 (standalone) and August 2, 2028 (embedded). No quantitative study found measuring a 2026 reshaping of the AI model market attributable to the Act.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    EU AI Act implementation in 2026 may reshape market.
    Kimi · Кими Инсайтс.txt, line 509 · 2025-11-29
  51. Too earlyErnieChina· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 global AI regulation will tighten, with the U.S., EU and China agreeing on basic AI ethical standards.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No trilateral US-EU-China agreement on AI ethical standards has been found as of October 2026. US and Chinese officials discussed frontier-AI guardrails at the May 14-15, 2026 Beijing summit and agreed to keep talking about a best-practices protocol against misuse by non-state actors, without a binding agreement. Meanwhile regulation moved in different directions: the EU agreed on May 7, 2026 (Digital Omnibus) to postpone AI Act high-risk obligations to December 2027/August 2028, and the US administration pursued federal preemption of state AI laws (EO 14365, Dec 11, 2025; National AI Policy Framework, Mar 20, 2026).

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): Did notDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    Global AI regulation will tighten, with U.S., EU, and China agreeing on basic ethical standards.
    Ernie · Ерни Инсайтс.txt, line 193 · 2025-11-29
  52. Too earlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2030· repeats UAE and Saudi Arabia (national targets)

    UAE and Saudi Arabia will get 12–14% of GDP from AI by 2030.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: The 12-14% figures come from PwC Middle East's 2018 estimate (AI ~14% of UAE GDP, ~$96B, and ~12.4% of Saudi GDP, ~$135B, by 2030), echoed in national strategies. No official statistic measuring AI's current share of UAE or Saudi GDP was found as of October 2026; the deadline is 2030.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): Too earlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Too earlyLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    UAE and Saudi Arabia target 12–14% GDP from AI by 2030
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 107 · 2025-11-29
  53. Too earlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 multimodal agents will replace single-task chatbots.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: No direct measurement shows multimodal agents replacing single-task chatbots by October 2026. A Gartner survey of 3,566 customers (Feb–Mar 2026, published July 8, 2026) found customers three times more likely to use third-party GenAI tools than company-provided chatbots for service, increasingly to take actions, and only 27% would retry a chatbot after a bad experience. Major models released in 2026 (e.g., Gemini 3.5 Flash, May 19, 2026) are natively multimodal, and Gartner-cited data put organizations with deployed AI agents at 17% in 2026, indicating chatbots and agents coexist.

    Gemini (USA): PartlyGrok (USA): Did notClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Did notKimi (China): PartlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Did not
    Original words · Sources
    **Multimodal agents** will replace single-task chatbots.
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 219 · 2025-11-29
  54. Too earlyLe ChatEurope· Deadline: Dec 31, 2026

    In 2026 the first $1T AI company will appear, likely Microsoft or Google.

    What is known on Oct 12, 2026: Microsoft (2019) and Alphabet (2020) passed $1 trillion market capitalization years before 2026; Nvidia became the first company above $5 trillion in October 2025, Alphabet reached $4 trillion on January 12-13, 2026, and Apple passed $5 trillion in July 2026. Among AI-native private firms, OpenAI closed a $122B round at an $852B valuation in March 2026 and was reported in talks at more than $1.2 trillion; Altman said its IPO will not take place in 2026.

    Gemini (USA): Too earlyGrok (USA): Too earlyClaude Sonnet (USA): PartlyDeepSeek (China): Too earlyKimi (China): Too earlyQwen (China): Did notLe Chat (Mistral) (Europe): Too early
    Original words · Sources
    **The first $1T AI company** (likely Microsoft or Google).
    Le Chat · Ле Чат Инсайтс.txt, line 222 · 2025-11-29

How the check works

  • Source: the texts each AI wrote for the 10Think rating of AI models (files of 26–29 November 2025). Only forecasts with a date or a clear «in 2026» are taken, word for word; vague wishes without a date are left out, and so are forecasts about elections, wars, sanctions and rivalry between countries.
  • Facts: Opus with web search finds what actually happened, with sources and dates. It gives no verdict.
  • Verdict: Gemini (USA), Grok (USA), Claude Sonnet (USA), DeepSeek (China), Kimi (China), Qwen (China) and Le Chat (Mistral) (Europe) each get the forecast and the facts without the name of the AI that made it, and answer «came true», «partly», «did not» or «too early». The majority decides; before its deadline a forecast «fails» only when every judge says it can no longer come true — otherwise it stays «too early» until its date.
  • Rechecks: until the end of 2026 every forecast that is «too early» or «partly» is checked again once a month and right after its deadline. Each check is kept with its date; nothing is erased.
  • Some AIs repeated other people's forecasts (Gartner, Altman, governments); the card says whose. They count for the AI that chose to repeat them. Forecasts with a deadline after 2026 stay «too early».