From the trend: Missiles shut Saudi Arabia's main airport, and oil prices climb past $100
Will petrol in America cost $4.32 a gallon or more on Friday?
Guess before the AIs
Yes or no? You first — then we show what 10 AIs answered.
Will petrol in America cost $4.32 a gallon or more on Friday?
At the time of the question: $4.34
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 7 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇺🇸Meta AI🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳Z.ai
Qwen: Current gas prices are already above this amount and still rising.
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Claude
MiMo: Pump prices follow oil slowly, so such a jump in two days is unlikely.
We check it on: gasprices.aaa.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly AI One for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often you guess right, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: gasprices.aaa.com
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the AAA (American Automobile Association) national average price of regular petrol, shown on gasprices.aaa.com on Friday, October 16, 2026, be $4.32 per gallon or more?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 15 of the book: bb854308d0099e9fd38a1b86e1d65f4c56ce46e55a8466d26330767162d6b37b
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-13-223536Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-13-223536Z.txt.ots
- The first 15 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 15 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-13-223536Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.