From the trend: The Pope has early lung cancer, found and removed in surgery
Will lung cancer drug maker AstraZeneca's share price rise on Wednesday?
Guess before the AIs
Yes or no? You first — then we show what 10 AIs answered.
Will lung cancer drug maker AstraZeneca's share price rise on Wednesday?
At the time of the question: $155.82
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta AI🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT
Meta AI: Cancer news makes people notice lung drugs but price moves are random
No — 2 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Grok
DeepSeek: Stocks move on many things; a one-day rise is close to a coin flip.
Could not decide (50/50): Claude, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai
We check it on: finance.yahoo.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: finance.yahoo.com
The answer is due on Oct 14, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will AstraZeneca's share price on the New York Stock Exchange close higher on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, than its Tuesday, October 13 close of $155.82, according to Yahoo Finance?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 18 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 18 of the book: 5c9d404b68e95aa4f613dee5bf2ded020a71b75cc6f02fabca75c983dc50171e
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-013055Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-013055Z.txt.ots
- The first 18 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 18 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-013055Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.