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Will Las Vegas get as hot as 78 degrees on Thursday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will Las Vegas get as hot as 78 degrees on Thursday?
At the time of the question: 59°F
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 6 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Meta AI🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Claude
Qwen: Weather experts predict the sun will make the desert air very warm on Thursday.
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸ChatGPT
Grok: Weather office forecast shows a high near 77 degrees so 78 or more is less likely.
Could not decide (50/50): Kimi
We check it on: forecast.weather.gov
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: forecast.weather.gov
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the highest temperature at Las Vegas airport on Thursday, October 15, 2026, be 78°F (about 26°C) or more? Settled by the US National Weather Service daily climate report for Las Vegas. The forecast high on October 13 was near 78°F.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 20 of the book: bd85eeb34b57cce6d209dbd47c417ccde0572cbdb5054cb2d8d7865ce299089e
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-032852Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-032852Z.txt.ots
- The first 20 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 20 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-032852Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.