Will something new happen in this story by Friday: this story?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 4 AIs forecast.
Will something new happen in this story by Friday: this story?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Meta AI🇨🇳DeepSeek
ChatGPT: Reuters already reported new quarterly earnings and fresh details about the penalty on October 14.
No — 1 AIYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin
Wenxin: No existing story to generate new major media reports
We’ll know the answer
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How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: Reuters, AP or BBC News
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Reuters, AP or the BBC publish a report of a NEW concrete development in this story — «this story» — by 2026-10-16T18:00Z? Counts: a new event (a decision, an action, an official statement with new facts). Does not count: a repeat, a tribute or an opinion about the first report.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 24 of the book: ca8853ca91efbb4dcf7f6d2a65c7852fc762e5fae060a8e233eecf61786d352e
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-153330Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-153330Z.txt.ots
- The first 24 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 24 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-153330Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.