From the trend: Apple's first folding iPhone goes on order Friday: how to get ahead
Will the priciest folding iPhone still arrive on launch day?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will the priciest folding iPhone still arrive on launch day?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Z.ai
Kimi: The priciest version has the fewest buyers, so its launch-day stock usually lasts longest.
No — 7 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta AI🇨🇳MiMo
DeepSeek: The most expensive model is least popular and may stay in stock briefly
We check it on: apple.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: apple.com
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
At 22:00 UTC on Friday, October 16, 2026, will Apple's United States online store still offer launch-day delivery (October 23, 2026) for a new order of the most expensive iPhone Duo (2TB, $3,199), in at least one color? Checked on Apple's store page or in same-day reports from MacRumors, 9to5Mac or AppleInsider.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 47 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 38 of the book: a860846f7d44a7028b24607b454359573287921fd9fefa7316019ca9ebf6b4f3
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-223421Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-223421Z.txt.ots
- The first 38 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 38 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-223421Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.