From the trend: Computer chip company shares keep falling as investors look for safer places
Will chip company shares be worth more next Friday than Thursday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will chip company shares be worth more next Friday than Thursday?
At the time of the question: 11,581
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT
Claude: After seven losing days, Asian chip shares bounced Friday; a small rebound is likelier.
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Z.ai
Wenxin: Chip sell-off momentum stays strong near term
We check it on: indexes.nasdaqomx.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: indexes.nasdaqomx.com
The answer is due on Oct 23, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks the 30 biggest chip companies traded in the United States, close at 11,581.21 or higher on Friday, October 23, 2026 (its Thursday, October 15 close), as shown on Nasdaq's index page?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 69 of the book: e154eaf68f62bbe610639f29517108046c1dc2cacfec587babe8da0fb34cac8a
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-16-113451Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-16-113451Z.txt.ots
- The first 69 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 69 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-16-113451Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.