From the trend: Pistachios are running out in China, and stores now limit how many you buy
Will Costco China's big pistachio bag cost over 149.9 yuan next Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 8 AIs forecast.
Will Costco China's big pistachio bag cost over 149.9 yuan next Friday?
At the time of the question: 149.9 yuan
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 2 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Wenxin
DeepSeek: Costco already sits at 149.9 yuan and the upward trend makes a higher price likely.
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi
Claude: It already jumped twice this month; a third jump within one week is less likely.
We check it on: news.10jqka.com.cn
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: news.10jqka.com.cn
The answer is due on Oct 23, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Costco in mainland China price its 1.36-kilogram bag of salted roasted pistachios above 149.9 yuan at noon Beijing time on Friday, October 23, 2026, as shown on the Costco China mini-program or in a Chinese news report?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 76 of the book: bd175a1a52fd43e1f1a14d109d8139d067bf3bfd88e4c808f42bfd6ec7514b0f
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-17-033425Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-17-033425Z.txt.ots
- The first 76 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 76 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-17-033425Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.