From the trend: Japan's Hiroki Akimoto fights to win back world kickboxing title in Tokyo
Will Nadaka knock out Rifdean in their fight on Saturday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will Nadaka knock out Rifdean in their fight on Saturday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳StepFun
Nemotron + Mercury: Yoshinari wins most matches by stoppage historically.
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸ChatGPT
Claude: Nadaka mostly wins on points, and the heavier challenger hits back hard.
Could not decide (50/50): Z.ai
We check it on: onefc.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: onefc.com
The answer is due on Oct 17, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
At ONE SAMURAI 4 on October 17, 2026, will Nadaka Yoshinari beat Rifdean Masdor by knockout or technical knockout? 'Yes' only for a knockout or technical knockout win by Nadaka; 'No' for any other result (a decision win, a loss, a draw or no contest). Checked on ONE Championship's official results page at 2026-10-17T16:00Z.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 79 of the book: 7f001bb52c0e4b1e53a553703c0142e27781d58e3f5ffcc17f2e986a91d714e7
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-17-093549Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-17-093549Z.txt.ots
- The first 79 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 79 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-17-093549Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.