From the trend: Likely starters and injured or banned players in this weekend's Premier League
Will Manchester United avoid losing at Leeds on Sunday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will Manchester United avoid losing at Leeds on Sunday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳MiMo
Gemini: United have not lost in seven visits to Leeds and lead the league in shots.
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Grok
ChatGPT: United lack attacking sharpness, while Leeds have been difficult to beat at home.
Could not decide (50/50): StepFun
We check it on: premierleague.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: premierleague.com
The answer is due on Oct 18, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Manchester United avoid defeat (win or draw) away at Leeds United on Sunday, October 18, 2026, as shown on the official result at premierleague.com?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 27 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 80 of the book: f804e2b165aa57b09dcd9dd0f3db7bf4527644f9966d91f2cce313ff214700ca
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-17-113456Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-17-113456Z.txt.ots
- The first 80 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 80 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-17-113456Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.