From the trend: Canadian army grass fire kills four soldiers, at least 19 badly burned
Will fewer than 30 burned soldiers still be in hospital by Wednesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 8 AIs forecast.
Will fewer than 30 burned soldiers still be in hospital by Wednesday?
At the time of the question: 39 in hospital
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 2 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳DeepSeek
Wenxin: Many non-critical patients will be discharged soon
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta
Qwen: Burn victims need weeks of hospital care, not just a few days.
We check it on: cbc.ca
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: cbc.ca
The answer is due on Oct 22, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Alberta officials, the Canadian Armed Forces or CBC News report fewer than 30 Wainwright fire patients still in hospital at any point by the end of Wednesday, October 21, 2026 (Mountain Time)?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 101 of the book: 282c69e1987d32dcb16081b5ab2104490264db47e4c00f5be06f04b2ff8af96b
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-19-054707Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-19-054707Z.txt.ots
- The first 101 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 101 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-19-054707Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.