From the trend: LeBron James plays his first regular-season game for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight
Will LeBron score 21 points or more tonight?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will LeBron score 21 points or more tonight?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Wenxin
StepFun: It is opening night for his new team, so he should get plenty of shots.
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Kimi
Claude: He took very few shots before the season; one bookmaker set his line near 15.
We check it on: nba.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: nba.com
The answer is due on Oct 21, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will LeBron James score 21 points or more for the Philadelphia 76ers against the New York Knicks on October 20, 2026, according to the official NBA box score?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 10 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 119 of the book: f191d48908fdfaaf529b121f067f2134a87a77e715ea48bc641ff16d49fbdcd6
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-20-193551Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-20-193551Z.txt.ots
- The first 119 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 119 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-20-193551Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.