From the trend: Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his Thunder start the season as joint favourites
Will Wembanyama score 23 points or more on Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will Wembanyama score 23 points or more on Friday?
At the time of the question: 12 points
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 8 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳StepFun
Gemini: Victor Wembanyama typically recovers quickly from an unusually poor shooting performance in his next game.
No — 1 AIYou are here
🇨🇳MiMo
MiMo: He just made one shot in 13 tries; 23 points is a lot right now.
Could not decide (50/50): Claude
We check it on: nba.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: nba.com
The answer is due on Oct 24, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Victor Wembanyama score 23 points or more in the Spurs' home game against the Houston Rockets on Friday, October 23, 2026, per the official NBA.com box score?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 124 of the book: 9a295d0b6e1e4f615952b3b74c5503a456a22410114d9e829e35ad1c0645e840
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-21-053508Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-21-053508Z.txt.ots
- The first 124 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 124 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-21-053508Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.