From the trend: Manchester United are winless in six games and short of defenders
Will Harry Amass play Manchester United's Sunday match from the first minute?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will Harry Amass play Manchester United's Sunday match from the first minute?
Why this question: Carrick may have to use young defenders because so many senior ones are injured
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳MiMo
Gemini: Injuries to multiple senior defenders make starting a young academy fullback extremely likely.
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳DeepSeek
Nemotron + Mercury: Amass was on the bench against Como with Dalot preferred at left-back
Could not decide (50/50): StepFun
We check it on: bbc.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: bbc.com
The answer is due on Oct 25, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will 19-year-old defender Harry Amass be in Manchester United's starting eleven against Bournemouth on Sunday, October 25, 2026? Settled by the official line-up on BBC Sport.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 4 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 129 of the book: 40ea6c7667602efab124d9b133a8833147db60ddd32eee1cda56f63fa8cdce5a
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-21-173749Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-21-173749Z.txt.ots
- The first 129 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 129 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-21-173749Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.