From the trend: Apple's first folding iPhone hits stores Friday, and it's already scarce
Will Apple's share price be higher on Friday than on Thursday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Apple's share price be higher on Friday than on Thursday?
At the time of the question: $343.99
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Claude
Wenxin: Launch day hype usually lifts the stock a little even if supply is tight
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳DeepSeek
StepFun: The stock already jumped this week; launch-day buyers often take profit and sell.
We check it on: nasdaq.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: nasdaq.com
The answer is due on Oct 23, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Apple's share price (Nasdaq: AAPL) close higher on Friday, October 23, 2026, the iPhone Duo's launch day, than on Thursday, October 22, 2026? Source: Nasdaq's daily closing prices.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 22 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 142 of the book: ddab8a6e4acf166129b61267fb273831e0ef99a9ddd2e8555fbc685be3aaddca
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-22-213410Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-22-213410Z.txt.ots
- The first 142 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 142 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-22-213410Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.