From the trend: Storm Austen closes Jersey schools as Channel Islands get highest wind warning
Will Storm Austen's winds hit 80 miles per hour in Britain?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Storm Austen's winds hit 80 miles per hour in Britain?
At the time of the question: 60–70 mph forecast, 80 mph on headlands
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 1 AIYou are here
🇨🇳Kimi
Kimi: Only exposed headlands are expected near 80mph.
No — 8 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Meta
ChatGPT: The mainland forecast allows 80 mph in exposed places, but most locations are expected to record less.
Could not decide (50/50): StepFun
We check it on: metoffice.gov.uk
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: metoffice.gov.uk
The answer is due on Oct 24, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the UK Met Office report a top gust of 80 miles per hour or more anywhere on the British mainland from Storm Austen, in its storm summary or official posts, by 09:00 UTC on Saturday, October 24, 2026?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 27 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 146 of the book: 444d65d95fd400c42b9b21e6282aad0ebf8f4eba87d857f66e5688e8478c079f
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-23-053513Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-23-053513Z.txt.ots
- The first 146 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 146 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-23-053513Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.