From the trend: Pope Leo cancels a trip as he recovers from lung cancer surgery

Will the Vatican say by Friday the Pope's November trip is on?

Forecast before the AIs

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Will the Vatican say by Friday the Pope's November trip is on?

Why this question: Pope skipped a trip after surgery; his next trip?

We’ll know the answer

How we will check the answer

We check it on: vaticannews.va

The answer is due on Oct 30, 2026.

When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.

Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)

By the end of Friday, October 30, 2026 (Rome time), will the Vatican officially say that Pope Leo XIV's trip to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru will start as planned on November 6? Counts: a statement from the Holy See Press Office, the Vatican's official news office, or a Vatican News report confirming the trip is going ahead. Does not count: silence, a surgeon's opinion, or local organizers' statements.

Fingerprint matches ✓

The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.

Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.

A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.

The fingerprint itself, line 161 of the book: 663917f3d9d9dcbc0dc581e7f85f32ea6e76cc2def5141cb47cb48e487bb0ef9

Check it yourself, without us
  1. The book of questions: duels.jsonl
  2. The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-24-133633Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-24-133633Z.txt.ots
  3. The first 161 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
    head -n 161 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
  4. The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
    ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-24-133633Z.txt.ots
    or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.

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