From the trend: Anthropic's Claude Duet app lets Claude work on its own all day
Will the Claude app climb higher among top free iPhone apps by Saturday?
Forecast before the AIs
Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will the Claude app climb higher among top free iPhone apps by Saturday?
At the time of the question: #7
We’ll know the answer
Higher — 3 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Z.ai
Wenxin: New app launch buzz and curiosity will push Claude higher than seventh by Saturday evening.
Lower — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳MiMo
Claude: Work apps usually slip on weekends; Duet is a separate app and won't lift Claude.
Could not decide (50/50): StepFun
We check it on: apps.apple.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: apps.apple.com
The answer is due on Oct 24, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
On Apple's US list of top free iPhone apps (all categories), will 'Claude by Anthropic' be in a better place than 7th at 17:00 UTC on Saturday, October 24, 2026? It was 7th on October 23 at 10:01 Pacific time. Same place or worse counts as Lower.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 23 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 150 of the book: d3f80891e5e1a465c521015e9bb79821304222a3e7e1f1502050496deaff6585
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-23-173459Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-23-173459Z.txt.ots
- The first 150 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 150 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-23-173459Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.