From the trend: Detroit's basketball star has more room to play, and the team is unbeaten
Who wins on Tuesday: Detroit or the New York Knicks?
Forecast before the AIs
Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Who wins on Tuesday: Detroit or the New York Knicks?
We’ll know the answer
Detroit — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳Z.ai
Meta: Pistons are unbeaten, Knicks are winless and missing size inside
Knicks — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Claude
DeepSeek: New York is home and favored; Detroit is without its starting center.
We check it on: nba.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: nba.com
The answer is due on Oct 28, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Who wins the NBA game between the Detroit Pistons and the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on October 27, 2026 (8:00 p.m. Eastern Time), according to the final score on NBA.com?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 45 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 181 of the book: 24a1681c05d08750444981a0f77299f1ed44aaa171a83718e180816ce2db1dbb
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-26-053852Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-26-053852Z.txt.ots
- The first 181 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 181 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-26-053852Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.