From the trend: A Korean film star is tipped for an Oscar nomination
Will viewers rate the film 3.9 out of 5 or higher on Thursday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will viewers rate the film 3.9 out of 5 or higher on Thursday?
The bar: 3.9
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 9 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury
StepFun: It already averages 4.1, comfortably above the 3.9 line, and fans like it.
No — 1 AIYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek
DeepSeek: Letterboxd rating sits at 3.7, below 3.9
We check it on: letterboxd.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: letterboxd.com
The answer is due on Oct 29, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will 'Possible Love' have an average rating of 3.9 or higher out of 5 on Letterboxd on Thursday, October 29, 2026?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 182 of the book: 4467c48b073ec0f8bf4d9a7b7a2cb6920d36fd307d77e491b7e11ac062229de9
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-26-073532Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-26-073532Z.txt.ots
- The first 182 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 182 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-26-073532Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.