From the trend: Paris beats Lyon late and takes first place in France's league
Will Paris win by two goals or more on Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Paris win by two goals or more on Friday?
At the time of the question: 2 goals (2-0 against Lyon)
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Meta
Grok: Le Havre are bottom with two points so a comfortable win is likely but not certain
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai
Nemotron + Mercury: PSG often win narrowly, needed late subs to beat Lyon
Could not decide (50/50): Claude, StepFun
We check it on: ligue1.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: ligue1.com
The answer is due on Oct 30, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Le Havre by two goals or more in their Ligue 1 match on Friday, October 30, 2026, by the final score on ligue1.com?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 189 of the book: 4277a0000739775e55ac5f2d4bb511d893d133054bbc2e14cc43a474ddce85b8
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-26-233503Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-26-233503Z.txt.ots
- The first 189 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 189 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-26-233503Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.