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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-24-btc

Hash of the run: e320abcbc25be7c15301b7693e8616a15d9a2d3edb500ea713cbc727d8e06014 · sealed 2026-10-24T14:22:59Z

Covers lines 325–336 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-24 14:22:59 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. a7d5488d6dcd2904018db01573edd58add53bb8b37acf517b900f0112f37a1fd — as at 2026-10-24 13:12:48 UTC, lines 325–326, list 131248Z.txt
  2. e320abcbc25be7c15301b7693e8616a15d9a2d3edb500ea713cbc727d8e06014 — as at 2026-10-24 14:22:59 UTC, lines 325–336 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–326 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 fe9e4b734a5b19b3f8ade0c4bd9e5129a7fa7a3b3c4d4f1c8195743924b1893d

The intake for the score closes at Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-26T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 13:33:09 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. Bitcoin block 972931 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  6. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=327) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
councilGrok13:12:4813:16:10 1569c82d6b6an=329 · 14:22:59131645Z.txt34 s
councilMiMo (Xiaomi)13:12:4813:24:38 0777648630ddn=333 · 14:22:59132546Z.txt68 s
councilClaude13:12:4813:33:09 8bcec8bf31d9n=336 · 14:22:59133310Z.txt1 s
councilChatGPT13:12:4813:13:44 f10eabfd78d6n=328 · 14:22:59131346Z.txt2 s
councilGemini13:12:4813:20:28 e3af9b2b2f59n=332 · 14:22:59132246Z.txt137 s
councilMeta AI13:12:4814:22:22 f849134b858c———
councilQwen13:12:48————
councilKimi13:12:4813:26:36 7b58806700d1n=335 · 14:22:59132847Z.txt131 s
councilZ.ai13:12:4813:26:10 3cfb2c5a0a6cn=334 · 14:22:59132847Z.txt157 s
councilDeepSeek13:12:48————
councilWenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:12:48————
councilNemotron + Mercury (search)13:12:4813:19:00 321740a825f8n=331 · 14:22:59131945Z.txt45 s
councilStep 5 Preview13:12:4813:18:38 eff43c6dc0cbn=330 · 14:22:59131945Z.txt66 s
council-mod2Claude16:11:5216:26:52 8ca867bce581———
council-mod2ChatGPT16:11:5216:23:06 b296b6ef4e3a———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
010010Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
011112Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
011208Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
011511Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
011813Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
012117Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
013104Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
013111Z.txt1–3141fb97a494df8695c…
013610Z.txt1–322720c57f10e993333…
021158Z.txt1–322720c57f10e993333…
023142Z.txt1–322720c57f10e993333…
023145Z.txt1–322720c57f10e993333…
033448Z.txt1–32316b845345ed5b1ad…
050004Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
055416Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
065227Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
073434Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
105258Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
113428Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
123545Z.txt1–324866b8cc63801636c…
131248Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
131251Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
131346Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
131645Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
131945Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
132246Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
132546Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
132847Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
133310Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
133633Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
142222Z.txt1–326fe9e4b734a5b19b3…
142259Z.txt1–33643d8ed9b6e06f57c…
153507Z.txt1–33747fe6c42df3061b8…
161152Z.txt1–33747fe6c42df3061b8…
162306Z.txt1–33747fe6c42df3061b8…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

18 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-24 15:35 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-24 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 12,403 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-24 14:24:20 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 283 of 283 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=325 · cb_packet · · seal c7c4f8f77f972a43419312fa05b6453ea012a8c269973addd17d5ecfd21623cc · link e13c8c11ff6e607e95447e628269eb2ef3dabb38ee0b39dbd3e86d04ff583198 — a record of the book · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=326 · swap · · seal 12c74ef57cd599b97f28bf9c32aa0699ff1891b26328181edefa2a8f621ca1db · link 27928ba9d2cc04a23e4d62e0675d187a2b0225a2ac31da10aa2499f6bf676564 — a record of the book · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=327 · run · · seal 91679b53ed24ae3b941e025502cde11906152c3a54db419638149f5266bbff6a · link 066e9d8f5b56cdf8b898c331a020c455be6d06c58f4c16604b1110825df73b86 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=328 · answer · chatgpt · seal ae9d325677b4956a1f72203636a13257497f751d41e9dd6422cad6a86a656cd2 · link 461272b9cbf1eba238f470efb3b0620ed0ff941125e519c22d2bc88c54032306 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=329 · answer · grok · seal 183c4a03d71f284ac8066fd2ec5d762c7784d303e17e21ba43973fd2bda61414 · link fcbf5a907882bb4ac1300aa04f652138628b320c6331aa32105fdcfa7a7a872d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=330 · answer · stepfun · seal 3c2bb5724a5dfd2074b42afff5536b40a71d3a72a18cc4fc0823527c3979ea1c · link 6c2907332fcfd33aafa9cef5696393358fa37c60cbe767acaa5310efb175a5e6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=331 · answer · nemotron · seal 335730d03e833072029c28f49a6ec400d3f8f0821484ec033de05c234a9bfc29 · link bcc4b347fefd2ce2300d54a4adfe85c154e10db76fac415cbb050cc97d35602a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=332 · answer · gemini · seal cf83e4c73121f27ca993bda3211d2be6d5518ff9594887b2e4bd38c12d355b02 · link 34faf4ca73d01bd22b5a411764471c44cb56da397c0ab2e11794d8dcb5e61536 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=333 · answer · mimo · seal 2590a2ca2e38eebdb48ad53631006c87213a5fe5f64831f3f73e2c6e065cb4eb · link 65f0b5b29357550c10c0681b04c9ffe4d04c5359509ea1f173265d18a8ad2054 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=334 · answer · zai · seal 7c82d0f5a2025702428e0b89f26da87a53e9693ea75b2e41093158e1c06c0a0c · link 224d2b3ab13b2922ddbdaada22ab1c1586a75c8627928f4e2d1857698bf35c46 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=335 · answer · kimi · seal 6e3b74cedc7d0af0e0f962c03f0457201612e4158c84498b7368dc191e566cbc · link 042d86eb5f10a5f8d07ec285c48d40bc50ea693dbf23445f8bade74ec70a0b82 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=336 · answer · claude · seal 2e08af96848a119e407d5e13e5b8a39d012956f65f5a08d81655d68e4019bcd8 · link 057b8eaeb97e871e066c99f5b580a0dc54900c1c8ec2cdeff6752350527fa7b6 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 142259Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →