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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-28-am

Hash of the run: 57f47e780b0215e907e231542dc435f888eefdefc57a2ea5803a43aec8c336b0 · sealed 2026-10-28T13:00:17Z

Covers lines 502–517 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-28 13:00:17 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-28 13:23:56 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. abe414133b9bc45edf3415430cc948558f455a5e160d2c05c6e241fc6dafd9b7 — as at 2026-10-28 10:40:44 UTC, lines 502–503, list 104044Z.txt
  2. a042fcc86a53448b6b4659c337206a5642a402bf7287e9f2b323e0576cce4343 — as at 2026-10-28 13:00:17 UTC, lines 502–513, list 130017Z.txt
  3. ab5d1eee278bb151828bef2f29e9938bc1ed33cbc06c89b17730467e86311228 — as at 2026-10-28 13:23:11 UTC, lines 502–514, list 132311Z.txt
  4. 57f47e780b0215e907e231542dc435f888eefdefc57a2ea5803a43aec8c336b0 — as at 2026-10-28 13:23:56 UTC, lines 502–517 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–514 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 48d79d66e152aec0dc7ba8917236727c89001a813c63b999775ab397ae01524b

The intake for the score closed at Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-28T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 14:53:12 UTC
  4. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 13:23:57 UTC
  5. hash of the run sealed
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices
  8. Bitcoin block 973559 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=504) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini10:40:4410:48:14 4a513da7845an=508 · 13:00:17104932Z.txt78 s
council · step 1Meta AI10:40:44————
council · step 1Claude10:40:4410:55:28 058632ebfcb9n=513 · 13:00:17105534Z.txt6 s
council · step 1Grok10:40:4410:46:31 49189680ebf3n=506 · 13:00:17104631Z.txt0 s
council · step 1ChatGPT10:40:44————
council · step 1Kimi10:40:4410:57:08 2b4dcdc752ca———
council · step 1Qwen10:40:4410:48:34 f12998ddcff7n=509 · 13:00:17104932Z.txt58 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)10:40:4410:52:07 8bc2a1d40b4dn=512 · 13:00:17105233Z.txt25 s
council · step 1Z.ai10:40:4410:51:57 d5ae93c8225an=511 · 13:00:17105233Z.txt35 s
council · step 1DeepSeek10:40:4410:43:29 42d312fc22b6n=505 · 13:00:17104329Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)10:40:4410:46:35 f33004b5420en=507 · 13:00:17104932Z.txt176 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)10:40:44————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview10:40:4410:51:40 127d04ceaa14n=510 · 13:00:17105233Z.txt53 s
council · step 2Amazon Nova13:00:1913:02:25 0b41e297e9aan=517 · 13:23:56130320Z.txt54 s
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:1913:22:49 77ec97272be6———
council · step 2ChatGPT13:00:19————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:00:19————
council · step 2Kimi13:00:1913:00:19 2b4dcdc752ca———
council · step 2Grok13:00:1913:01:41 97fbd3a51b1cn=516 · 13:23:56130320Z.txt98 s
council · step 2DeepSeek13:00:1913:00:19 42d312fc22b6n=505 · 13:00:17104329Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:00:1913:00:19 f33004b5420en=507 · 13:00:17104932Z.txt176 s
council-bench-retry-portfolioAmazon Nova13:26:4213:28:28 cccf251839e2———
council · step 3Meta AI13:29:1613:53:27 ce8afbee62af———
council · step 3Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:29:16————
council · step 3ChatGPT13:29:16————
council · step 3Kimi13:29:1613:40:03 0ac5245377bc———
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:29:1713:53:54 76dd1e92592c———
council · step 3DeepSeek13:29:1713:31:04 598632916323———
council · step 4ChatGPT13:54:4014:53:12 a8cb0a23407e———
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:54:4014:53:08 5de28eb59d44———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
000126Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
002150Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
004229Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
010424Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
011344Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
011430Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
011746Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
012045Z.txt1–4898fd8a58031851f13…
013441Z.txt1–49844ef133e4608138a…
015531Z.txt1–49844ef133e4608138a…
021301Z.txt1–49844ef133e4608138a…
023219Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
023311Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
025418Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
031455Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
033557Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
033830Z.txt1–499dfbd88e8affb4876…
035357Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
035607Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
045414Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
053001Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
055440Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
065444Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
075451Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
085447Z.txt1–50049cbed48aeb583da…
093447Z.txt1–501b0ca883026f88d04…
104044Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
104048Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
104329Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
104631Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
104932Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
105233Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
105534Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
105835Z.txt1–503b4d87b23c80d8f0f…
130017Z.txt1–5137870138f7fdbe0b9…
130020Z.txt1–5137870138f7fdbe0b9…
130320Z.txt1–5137870138f7fdbe0b9…
132249Z.txt1–5137870138f7fdbe0b9…
132311Z.txt1–51448d79d66e152aec0…
132357Z.txt1–51786db2ac926262c11…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Forecast sealed before the 09:30 ET open: service mark digicert 2026-10-28 13:23:57 UTC, covers part of the lines (the file lists which). verdict file

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

34 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-28 14:53 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-28 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 18,242 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-28 15:03:15 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 609 of 609 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=502 · cb_packet · · seal 12f361ef8978ab9aa4f02019936eacec6221c9a6743fae9300558cdc874b3829 · link 41c6469e43959f932379549a238689c9e94db15f4a2e667d9c91f302d106d2f1 — a record of the book · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=503 · swap · · seal ca0b71783ac3af8a93b77421aaecbbf1ea63aeb9a0adca1b71c5ef6e258f08d8 · link 78d7f5ef3e6005dc934f1c35ec3a952b6c85ed135760e701421bb484c0691f39 — a record of the book · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=504 · run · · seal c08387490c48931686500f47314e567ea31bba8423aecbd142fe91249648e1e7 · link a5c8bf41c6d97d3224ca388a75978bdf23c4b52b751cd0942ca7f0f68be5461e — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=505 · answer · deepseek · seal 84de10ce4d4aa968a7b6fd772e744187ee94234f98be977b8338f6af885de51e · link 43469f5ba2cd942cd59789efcaf72ead7e4771eab5bc71f02fb40b55e3665448 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=506 · answer · grok · seal a069ce87cba96ca088806adb863092593e960ee8ef9d94cac9f7a9e638c2c2a7 · link e0ed49bd00f4593bcfffdc22fb6f3035ff44ae870b2297de84c8ee83d898d5ff — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=507 · answer · nemotron · seal b706645da2f08867caad0ea9d32b81bc953762d17a3c7b2d1a64323ecaefea09 · link bf0312cacf51d8bb51225c465146a07cffb5000d2b7b5db77344f0ae58920a02 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=508 · answer · gemini · seal 0f312280623ec1aa5755668c6ebb4a5691513662231a90aaa17a2ea8ab38503c · link 51bc205ec4a5e7dab264ea8c16155b94fde36cf664283a49ae6e6d88599261ab — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=509 · answer · qwen · seal 06d5ecf617e5d98a289522a55062eb276c314b93c0d3db4f52554cc86a1b2b7b · link ba7d3b44ef490195dc8816735e9be586b8d1b95b51a118a1af0fd8233cb81586 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=510 · answer · stepfun · seal 3c94c8011b29090f13fae4d4e1250af108c440e0e2141eaa2d947bc179223003 · link 59f827ac554a7895c112c4d07c6da914406df944b03a3e84b4fd708abcce41b2 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=511 · answer · zai · seal 8d34c157082c93146178ddde35bd1c812fbc1f3ff70fdbb720c2fa2e343478e7 · link 33ffddce5993baf67b883d00a59bceb7bc7f98201416601704620ab250dc35a7 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=512 · answer · mimo · seal 22da94febdc98f67dd43eaf86e23643ae4eace443f2d3f6f1c9ed68146aaa0a3 · link 9e20c2201372439e5443cbf671273e0b0e8a52e4bc781dae60643baa287a939a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=513 · answer · claude · seal d841879e210fa632d1e1c7f82cdd054fc276847090e7f749085649998653577b · link 3d52265fd561902aeaeaa97540aab2e201a0875d83227d7d7a91f5588d58b91f — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130017Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=514 · answer · meta · seal 09324dc6f6d3eba7c8b046fedcd3dd591e018a8ec9fe4a76d63073cd3aee6a81 · link 56aef8b3d6f0b656c9981e3bc1860bf03d985a2b5308dd1d6b3963977bf14257 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132311Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=515 · ask_version · · seal 08edcfa9e8fe798cbeb3f3ecd1e15e55058c6438584235349b21db6ebe0f378f · link 502e76358abe0d5c38c3150f66ce6f64ba65f44a34ce469a65daf42c673424d3 — a record of the book · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=516 · answer · grok · seal 01f099357d42f19311cea1465c1d910e27c04ee2e8fa5b0aa2502e17a35a998b · link acd56f07b3c5f73b90408c8b713b209320aca5512e7552075a405d5b89c4347e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=517 · answer · nova · seal 4860f1462ab7eab015772015327f1421705a1203555ac87b6e504501ac451b68 · link 4b9c123e6518e1c13ac41ee5254559b9a98d386a343c869a8a76685e3f841bf9 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132357Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=518 · bench · nova · seal 9256c6cf37daf9e3d56212d9ddbae238a29dce9b476101cc99a8604b444cbf05 · link 291fdb9727014fc8da28faefc0d3b24184a8560add19f45f174e91799e005d45 — league · asked again · stamped later in 132851Z.txt (2026-10-28 13:28:51 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  18. n=519 · answer · wenxin · seal 8a7a2c3ff8cec231d839ef02c406b2d508dc4bc7242d64437798b9faaa103002 · link 42c84596cf9d5d8f7493933c6de625cb351a00e118199937f617f559ca113461 — forecast · counted in the score · stamped later in 133953Z.txt (2026-10-28 13:39:53 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  19. n=521 · answer · kimi · seal f5cbc51943b95085d5b54683ce3b7f05cce95383a26a0e0a138036c0b0bd140f · link 363835b76b5a7b235d93f0da00c11e3ef8a87fabb3b1446889cdfcbb0150323b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 135356Z.txt (2026-10-28 13:53:56 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  20. n=523 · answer · chatgpt · seal 33cb3374bb14ed3c731cafa6690c870fb5d8ba66fd096f64f414061cb4fb2238 · link 707b06d14d207507ddd84112cf0105adcec203ae032de08e888fff769ee83f88 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped later in 145611Z.txt (2026-10-28 14:56:11 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →