From the trend: Hungry bears are killing people in Siberia, and hunters are sent out
Will the Siberian city Krasnoyarsk be warmer on Saturday than Friday?
Guess before the AIs
Yes or no? You first — then we show what 10 AIs answered.
Will the Siberian city Krasnoyarsk be warmer on Saturday than Friday?
At the time of the question: 1°C
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Nova🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Meta AI
ChatGPT: Both weather forecasts show Saturday slightly warmer than Friday, though the difference is small.
No — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Qwen
Gemini: Forecasts show the exact same high temperature for both days in that city.
Could not decide (50/50): Kimi, Z.ai
We check it on: timeanddate.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: timeanddate.com
The answer is due on Oct 17, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the highest daytime temperature in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, on Saturday, October 17, 2026 be higher than on Friday, October 16, 2026, according to the past-weather page of the weather website timeanddate.com?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 3 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 12 of the book: 84236618bb9e8b1daa3f9ff36f4041601e50d92f184b18c6ec5d668d0fabb7e4
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-13-184550Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-13-184550Z.txt.ots
- The first 12 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 12 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-13-184550Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.