Oct 13, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · sciencescience · Oct 13, 2026

Hungry bears are killing people in Siberia, and hunters are sent out

The bears aren't turning vicious, they're starving, and open rubbish in towns is what keeps them coming back.

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They agree: 6 of 10: shooting more bears won't help while rubbish stays open.
They split: Z.ai sees calm by mid-November; Claude and Kimi warn of a hungry spring.
Not obvious: If a bear attacks, the ten give opposite advice: play dead or fight.
What to do: Lock away rubbish, pet food and fallen fruit before the first snow.
What to watch: If bears keep showing up in towns after deep snow, the spring warning holds.
Only one AI: Only Claude: in 2025 hunters took just 12,700 of 47,000 allowed bears.

Read in full

The ten answers agree that the bears haven't become vicious. They are hungry. A failed crop of pine nuts and berries, made worse by fires, left them thin before their winter sleep. Rubbish, animal feed and pet food near homes then drew them in and kept them there.

Six answers (Claude, ChatGPT, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek) say shooting more bears is only a stopgap. MiMo and Kimi cite zoologists who say new bears replace those shot at dumps, and wounded bears get more dangerous.

They split over what comes next. Z.ai expects attacks to stop almost completely once deep snow comes in mid-November. Claude and Kimi warn that thin bears may skip their winter sleep and roam as 'shatuns', Russian for bears that never settle into a den, and that hungry bears stay risky until late May. Nova goes further and says things get worse before they get better.

They also split on numbers. Meta AI points to a bear population that has more than doubled since 1990 to about 308,000. ChatGPT says those counts are too unreliable to prove a lasting rise, and MiMo puts the blame on garbage, not numbers. Claude adds that Moscow's plan to lift hunting limits may change little: in 2025 hunters took only 12,700 of nearly 47,000 bears allowed.

The attack advice splits most sharply. Claude, ChatGPT and Z.ai follow the United States National Park Service rule: if a brown bear attacks to defend itself, lie face down and protect your neck, but fight if it stalks you or keeps attacking. Kimi and DeepSeek say fight back, because a starving bear may be hunting you. Nova wrongly says to play dead on your back. Meta AI, Gemini, MiMo and Qwen give no advice for an actual attack.

What follows: next autumn depends on the 2027 nut and berry crop and on whether towns lock up their waste. You can act now. Seal rubbish, pet food and animal feed, and pick up fallen fruit. Walk in groups and make noise. Avoid the woods at dawn and dusk. Carry bear spray where you can reach it in a second. Never run. Before trips into the Siberian forest, check local warnings now and again in April and May.

They split: Z.ai sees calm by mid-November; Claude and Kimi warn of a hungry spring.
What settles the dispute: Reports of bears roaming Siberian towns in December will show who is right.

No real split; two Chinese AIs urge fighting back, US AIs mostly say play dead first.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source In 2025 hunters took about 12,700 of nearly 47,000 bears allowed
Confirmed by a source A zoologist says bears shot at dumps are soon replaced by others
The AIs' conclusion Thin, hungry bears will stay risky into spring 2027

The AIs read 51 sources

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I live near a forest in Siberia. What should I lock away now, and what do I do if a bear walks up to me?

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Who wins, who loses: Forest firms and tour guides lose income; sellers of bear spray and fences gain.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

What does this wave of bear attacks tell us about the bears and the people who live near them? What is likely to happen next, this winter and next year? What should people who live, work or travel near bear country do to stay safe (source)?

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

1ClaudeUSA8.1Hungry Siberian bears stay dangerous into spring; hunting limits aren't the problem
This was a hunger year, so the danger will outlast autumn. May frosts and a dry summer wiped out wild food, Krasnoyarsk's berry bushes gave only 15–20% of a normal crop, and fires burned some pine-nut forests (osnmedia.ru, rambler.ru).
Bears eat hardest in the weeks before denning. Thin ones may skip their sleep and roam as 'shatuns' this winter, and hungry bears stay risky for a month after waking, until late May in the north (news.mail.ru).
Next year depends on the 2027 nut and berry crop, since Siberian cedars fruit heavily only every few years (rambler.ru). It also depends on locking up waste, because bears that raid villages pass the habit to their cubs (lenta.ru).
Firms in the taiga share the risk. Experts blame open food waste and mining spreading into wild land, and a guard was killed at a truck lot in a forestry area (cp24.com). Tourism and the forest trade are hit.
Krasnoyarsk closed its Stolby (Pillars) national park (cp24.com), and Tuva asked people to stay out of its nature park until 30 November (asi.org.ru). Zabaikalye is importing 80 tonnes of shelled pine nuts from China after a poor cone crop (chita.ru). Moscow is weighing lifting hunting limits (933thedrive.com), but that may change little.
In 2025 hunters took only 12,700 of nearly 47,000 allowed bears (rambler.ru). Krasnoyarsk has already shot 982 this year, against 40–70 in past years (ngs24.ru).
Lock away garbage and food scraps, pick up fallen fruit, use electric fences and obey night curfews (nsk.om1.ru, cp24.com).
Experts say bears shot at a dump are soon replaced, and wounded ones turn more dangerous (cp24.com). In the woods, go in a group and make noise so bears hear you coming (nps.gov).
Carry bear spray, never run or climb a tree, pick up small children and back away sideways (nps.gov). If a brown bear attacks to defend itself, lie face down with your pack on and hands behind your neck. If it stalks you or tears into a tent, fight back and hit its face (nps.gov).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 · mode: Max · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: TASS or RIA Novosti reports that at least one person in Russia was killed by a bear in an attack that took place between 1 December 2026 and 28 February 2027 — 55% by Mar 1, 2027
2MiMoChina8.0Hungry bears came for our garbage, not because their numbers grew
The wave says the bears are short of food, not that there are suddenly more of them: a bad pine nut and berry crop plus fires pushed them toward towns before hibernation, and easy food waste kept them there. For an ordinary family that means real risk in yards and on forest edges until deep freeze sets in, and it means the danger comes back every bad harvest year.
Experts put the blame on us, not the bears: "We are creating attractive food sources that draw them in" (cp24.com).
For business, shooting bears is a stopgap: officials in Altai killed more than 50 and permitted 157 more, and Krasnoyarsk killed over 180, yet wounded bears can become more dangerous and "other bears will take the place of those killed near rubbish dumps" (cp24.com).
The durable fixes are cheap next to lawsuits and lost seasons: locked waste sites, electric fencing at camps, lodges and work yards, and closing trails and parks early, as Krasnoyarsk did with the Pillars National Park and the Torgashinsky Ridge route (cp24.com).
If you live, work or travel near bear country now: obey night curfews and closures, do not walk alone at dawn, dusk or night, keep food and garbage sealed and away from houses and tents, and give a bear an escape route rather than surprising it.
Carry a deterrent and know how to use it, and report any bear in a yard or street to local officials instead of trying to scare it off yourself (cp24.com).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: At least one new fatal bear attack on a person in Russia will be reported by Russian media between October 14 and November 30, 2026 — 45% by Nov 30, 2026
3Meta AIUSA7.9Hungry bears crowd Siberian towns after forest food fails
The bears are not suddenly meaner, they are starving and crowded. Russia has about 308,000 brown bears, more than double since 1990, with 27,000 in Krasnoyarsk alone, and this autumn pine nuts and berries failed after fires, so bears must fatten before sleep and wander into yards and forests. That is why seven deaths in one region in one month feels like a siege, but risk is seasonal and tied to food.
For shops, loggers, berry pickers and tour firms, this is a costly shock. Parks close, schools go remote, hunters are paid to kill more than 530 aggressive bears since spring and over 50 in Altai with 157 more permits, while the federal government talks about lifting hunting quotas. More insurance, waste control and closures will cut income this autumn and may stay next year if bear numbers stay high.
Do not run, bears can outrun you. Back away slowly, talk in a soft voice, give space and leave an escape route. Travel in groups of three or more, make noise, carry bear spray where it is allowed, keep food and trash locked away, and avoid forests at dusk, especially where berries or mushrooms grow.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: TASS, RIA or Interfax reports that more than 600 brown bears deemed aggressive have been culled across Russia since spring 2026 — 65% by Nov 12, 2026
4ChatGPTUSA7.9Bear attacks expose a food problem hunting alone cannot solve
The main danger is not that bears have suddenly become more aggressive. When berries and nuts are scarce and fires damage forests, hungry bears move toward settlements where rubbish and other food are available (kesq.com).
For ordinary families, gardens, familiar walking paths and nearby woods become less safe, but scientists warn that unreliable bear population estimates make it difficult to prove a lasting nationwide rise in attacks (reuters.com).
For tourism companies, forestry businesses and outdoor workers, this means possible cancellations, closed trails, higher safety costs and disrupted operations; shooting dangerous bears may reduce immediate threats but cannot eliminate the food sources attracting others (kesq.com).
As temperatures fall, most bears should enter winter dens and encounters should decline, although bears finding human food may remain active; spring 2027 could bring renewed problems, and another poor autumn harvest could repeat the crisis (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov). Longer-term protection requires better waste management and prevention alongside targeted action against dangerous animals (nps.gov).
Residents and businesses should secure rubbish, pet food and other attractants, install bear-resistant bins or suitable fencing, report sightings and respect closed areas (nps.gov).
Travelers should check local warnings, move in groups, make noise, avoid walking at dawn or dusk, keep children close and dogs leashed, and carry accessible bear spray where legal; never approach a bear or run away from one (nps.gov). During a defensive brown bear attack, protect your neck and play dead, but fight back if the bear stalks you, treats you as prey or continues attacking (nps.gov).
Model: GPT-6 · mode: Extra high · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Krasnoyarsk Pillars National Park will publicly announce the reopening of at least one main visitor entrance following its bear-related closure by November 12, 2026. — 47% by Nov 12, 2026
5DeepSeekChina7.6Hungry bears are pushing into Siberian towns, and people must adapt fast.
The bears are not evil; they are starving. A failed pine nut and berry crop, plus huge forest fires, has left them with no wild food before winter. So they walk into villages, dachas and even playgrounds looking for anything to eat.
For an ordinary person, this means the danger is no longer only deep in the forest — it can be in your own yard or on the street after dark. You must treat every trip outside as a possible bear encounter, especially in Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Tuva and Altai.
For business, the rules are changing fast. Tourism routes are closed, schools cancel outdoor events, and local authorities are paying hunters bounties of 15,000 to 35,000 rubles per bear.
Hunting groups want quotas lifted or scrapped, while conservationists warn that mass shooting will not fix the real problem: too little food and too much garbage near people. Companies that depend on forests, tourism or hunting must plan for more closures, more permits and more conflict.
What should you do now? Walk in groups, talk loudly, sing or bang a stick on trees so bears hear you early and leave. Never run — a bear can hit 50 km/h. Carry a special pepper spray for large predators, and keep food waste sealed or burned.
If you meet a bear, stay calm, back away diagonally, do not look it in the eye and never turn your back. If it charges, shout, wave your arms and use your spray. Playing dead only works for a defensive mother bear, not a hungry one hunting you.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: By November 12, 2026, at least one of the Russian regions Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk or Altai will officially publish a new brown bear hunting quota for the 2026–2027 season that is higher than the previous season's quota. — 65% by Nov 12, 2026

6Z.aiChina7.4Hungry bears, not deranged ones: failed forest harvest drives the danger.
For an ordinary person this says: the bears are starving, not sick or evil. A failed pine-nut and berry crop, plus fires, left them short of fat before their winter sleep, so they come to towns for garbage, grain and livestock feed. The risk is real but narrow — it peaks in autumn, near forest edges in hungry years — and most bears still avoid people whenever they can.
What happens next is fairly predictable. Snow and deep cold will push the bears into their dens, and attacks should stop almost completely by mid-November. Next year depends on the forest: a good nut harvest means quiet, another failure means a repeat.
Expect Russia to loosen bear-hunting rules — that helps hunting and logging businesses but rarely fixes the root cause, and outdoor tourism in Altai and Siberia may suffer from frightening headlines for a season.
If you live, work or travel near bear country: carry bear spray and keep it on your belt, not in your backpack — it is the best proven protection. Make noise as you walk, travel in groups, and avoid thick brush at dawn and dusk; never leave food, trash or pet bowls out, and store food well away from tents.
If you meet a bear, back away slowly and speak calmly — never run. If a brown bear attacks, lie face down and play dead; fight back only if it does not stop.
Model: GLM-5.3 · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: At least one more fatal bear attack on a human in Russia is reported by a major news outlet (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, TASS or Interfax) between October 13 and November 12, 2026. — 60% by Nov 12, 2026
7KimiChina6.8Hungry bears near towns mean a hard winter and a worse spring
This is not bears turning mean; it is hunger. A failed pine nut and berry crop, plus wildfires, left bears short of fat before hibernation, so they walk into yards, dumps and parking lots (cp24.com).
For an ordinary person the risk stays high until deep snow and the bears den, then falls off — but thin bears wake up hungry, so expect a rough spring of 2027 too. Unusually hot Siberian summers are making these bad food years more common (eureports.com).
For business the message is cost, not just fear. Logging, mining, trucking and tourism outfits in Siberia now face closed parks, night curfews, halted work and scared staff, and the main national park near Krasnoyarsk is already shut (cp24.com).
Shooting more bears, as Altai's cull of 50-plus shows, calms the public but does not fix the driver — open rubbish and food waste — so firms that leave garbage unsecured will keep drawing bears back. If Moscow loosens hunting limits, expect more bears shot and modest relief, not a solution.
What to do now: lock up food, garbage, pet food and animal feed, and report any sighting early rather than waiting. Walk in groups, make noise, skip forest trips at dawn and dusk, keep dogs leashed, and carry bear spray where legal, in a holster you can reach in a second (alberta.ca).
If you meet a bear, back away slowly and never run; if one attacks, fight back — do not play dead with a food-stressed predator (flockingaround.com). Travelers should check regional warnings before any trip into the Siberian taiga this month and again in April and May.
Model: Kimi K3 · mode: High · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Russian media report at least one more fatal bear attack in Russia between 2026-10-14 and 2026-11-30, as underfed bears keep foraging late before denning. — 45% by Nov 30, 2026
8GeminiUSA6.1Hungry bears invading Siberian towns spark safety fears and debates over hunting.
The recent wave of bear attacks shows that nature's food shortages quickly become a danger to human towns. When forests lack enough berries and pine nuts, hungry bears will march straight into neighborhoods to survive. This means ordinary people in Siberian towns must stay alert and change their daily routines until the bears hibernate.
For local businesses, these wildlife clashes bring both disruptions and new demands. Hunting and outdoor supply stores might see a spike in sales as authorities offer cash rewards and issue more permits. At the same time, companies running logging or tourism operations will face higher security costs to keep their workers safe.
If you live or travel near bear country, your main goal is to keep wild animals away from human food. Secure your garbage in strong bins, clean up any fallen fruit in your yard, and never leave food scraps outside. When walking in the woods, make plenty of noise and travel in groups so you do not surprise a bear.
Model: Gemini 3 (Auto) · mode: High · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: The Russian Ministry of Natural Resources will publish a draft order regarding bear hunting quotas for public discussion on regulation.gov.ru. — 65% by Oct 31, 2026
9QwenChina5.4Hungry bears push into Russian towns seeking food before winter.
Hungry bears leave forests to find food in towns before winter sleep. Ordinary people face real danger when walking near trees or open garbage bins.
Local towns now spend cash on hunting teams and rewards to keep streets safe. Outdoor tourism and forest work face delays because of new curfews.
Stay away from wild areas and always lock up your food and trash. Travel in loud groups and carry bear spray if you must go outside.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: The Russian Ministry of Natural Resources issues a formal order allowing regions to set their own brown bear population limits. — 65% by Nov 10, 2026
10NovaUSA5.1Bears raid towns when food is scarce
This wave of attacks shows that bears get desperate when their natural food runs low, and they will come close to people to survive. For people living near bear country, it means being extra careful, storing food securely, and knowing what to do if a bear appears. For businesses, it means taking steps to keep workers and customers safe, like training staff and having clear emergency plans.
To stay safe near bears, people should avoid sleeping outside, keep food and trash locked away, make noise when hiking, and never try to fight a bear. If a bear does show up, stay calm, back away slowly, and if it attacks, play dead on your back. In areas with known bear problems, follow any local advisories or curfews.
This situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. As winter approaches, bears will keep searching for food, leading to more encounters with people. Next year, if the same conditions return — poor harvests and forest fires — we could see another round of attacks. The key is to reduce the chances of bears and people meeting by managing both bear habitats and human activities in those areas.
Model: Amazon Nova · mode: High · search on · new chat not disclosed
Sources
own forecast: Local hunting teams will kill more than 100 bears in the Altai region before winter ends — 65% by Nov 30, 2026

Previous trends

Latest trend →: Google releases its smartest AI yet, and 10,000 scientists get it free

Which AI guesses right more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 9 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 16 were asked, 12 answered — each side shows its 5 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

Mistral, DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Gemini, Nova, Qwen, Z.ai and Kimi read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — a tie (China +0.2); DeepSeek (China) — China ahead by 0.3; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 0.5; Meta AI (USA) — a tie (China +0.0); Gemini (USA) — a tie (USA +0.0); Nova (USA) — a tie (USA +0.2); Qwen (China) — a tie (China +0.1); Z.ai (China) — a tie (China +0.3); Kimi (China) — a tie (USA +0.2).

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	DeepSeek	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Gemini	Nova	Qwen	Z.ai	Kimi	Score
1	Claude	USA	8.0	8.5	7.8	7.8	9.0	8.3	9.3	5.8	8.5	8.1
2	MiMo	China	7.8	8.3	8.3	8.3	6.5	8.5	9.3	8.0	7.0	8.0
3	Meta AI	USA	7.3	7.3	7.3	7.5	8.8	8.5	9.0	7.5	8.5	7.9
4	ChatGPT	USA	8.0	8.3	8.5	8.3	7.5	8.3	8.3	6.5	7.8	7.9
5	DeepSeek	China	7.5	7.8	5.8	6.8	8.8	7.5	8.5	7.5	8.0	7.6
6	Z.ai	China	7.5	8.0	6.5	7.0	8.0	7.8	7.5	7.3	7.0	7.4
7	Kimi	China	6.8	7.5	5.5	5.5	7.8	7.8	8.0	5.5	6.5	6.8
8	Gemini	USA	5.8	6.5	6.8	5.0	6.3	7.5	6.0	5.3	5.5	6.1
9	Qwen	China	5.0	5.3	6.0	4.8	5.8	6.8	5.5	4.8	4.8	5.4
10	Nova	USA	4.8	4.5	4.3	3.5	5.3	7.0	5.8	6.5	4.0	5.1

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its own app, in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, in a new chat, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Mode	Plan	How sure
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	exact
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	exact
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	likely
Gemini	Gemini 3 (Auto)	High	Google AI Pro	likely
Nova	Amazon Nova	High	free	not disclosed
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	likely
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	exact
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max	free	likely
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	membership	exact
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink	free	likely
Mistral judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	free	not disclosed

Exact: the app showed the model for this answer. Likely: the app shows only the mode, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: the app does not say which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 12, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will the Russian government officially adopt a decision that removes or raises the limits on brown bear hunting, or lets regions set their own limits on bear numbers, by 2026-11-12?

The result comes on Nov 12, 2026, 30 days after this issue. Counts: a signed government resolution, presidential decree or Ministry of Natural Resources order on this, published on the official Russian legal portal publication.pravo.gov.ru or the government website government.ru by November 12, 2026. Does not count: statements that it will be considered, a draft posted for public discussion, a bill only sent to parliament, or one region's own hunting permits. Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

Poly USA-5 · 38%
ChatGPT57%
Gemini40%
Nova40%
Meta AI35%
Claude6%
Poly China-5 · 33%
Qwen40%
Z.ai40%
Kimi30%
DeepSeek30%
MiMo22%

the line: Poly World-10 · 35%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

Poly USA-538%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Gemini, Novaall 5 answered
Poly China-533%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
Poly World-1035%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Gemini, Nova, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	By	Chance
Claude	TASS or RIA Novosti reports that at least one person in Russia was killed by a bear in an attack that took place between 1 December 2026 and 28 February 2027	Mar 1, 2027	55%
ChatGPT	Krasnoyarsk Pillars National Park will publicly announce the reopening of at least one main visitor entrance following its bear-related closure by November 12, 2026.	Nov 12, 2026	47%
Meta AI	TASS, RIA or Interfax reports that more than 600 brown bears deemed aggressive have been culled across Russia since spring 2026	Nov 12, 2026	65%
Gemini	The Russian Ministry of Natural Resources will publish a draft order regarding bear hunting quotas for public discussion on regulation.gov.ru.	Oct 31, 2026	65%
Nova	Local hunting teams will kill more than 100 bears in the Altai region before winter ends	Nov 30, 2026	65%
MiMo	At least one new fatal bear attack on a person in Russia will be reported by Russian media between October 14 and November 30, 2026	Nov 30, 2026	45%
Qwen	The Russian Ministry of Natural Resources issues a formal order allowing regions to set their own brown bear population limits.	Nov 10, 2026	65%
Z.ai	At least one more fatal bear attack on a human in Russia is reported by a major news outlet (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, TASS or Interfax) between October 13 and November 12, 2026.	Nov 12, 2026	60%
Kimi	Russian media report at least one more fatal bear attack in Russia between 2026-10-14 and 2026-11-30, as underfed bears keep foraging late before denning.	Nov 30, 2026	45%
DeepSeek	By November 12, 2026, at least one of the Russian regions Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk or Altai will officially publish a new brown bear hunting quota for the 2026–2027 season that is higher than the previous season's quota.	Nov 12, 2026	65%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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