From the trend: Ten men and two goals down: Manchester United's bad run gets worse
Will Sunday's Leeds against Manchester United game have three goals or more?
Guess before the AIs
Yes or no? You first — then we show what 10 AIs answered.
Will Sunday's Leeds against Manchester United game have three goals or more?
At the time of the question: 2.5 goals per game expected
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 8 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Meta AI🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Claude
Grok: These rival teams often both find the net in games
No — 1 AIYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury
Nemotron + Mercury: Both teams leak goals but United defend poorly
Could not decide (50/50): StepFun AI Studio
We check it on: espn.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: espn.com
The answer is due on Oct 18, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the Premier League match between Leeds United and Manchester United on Sunday, October 18, 2026 end with 3 or more goals in total, by the final score on ESPN?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 4 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 17 of the book: 9dec81334c365f8650fb465e6aecb8676154d16acf2e050f02e978e85a61af31
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-003444Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-003444Z.txt.ots
- The first 17 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 17 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-003444Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.