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Trend of the day · Science & spaceScience & space · Oct 13, 2026

Ten men and two goals down: Manchester United's bad run gets worse

Ten men and two goals down: Manchester United's bad run gets worse

Most AIs see United as an ordinary mid-table team now, not a strong side having a bad week.

USA6.8:China6.8

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They agree: 7 of 10: the club keeps coach Carrick for now, but with little patience.
They split: DeepSeek gives Carrick two more games; Claude expects him to last to November.
Not obvious: Shares rose on match day; the AIs who tied results to a share fall were wrong.
What to do: Judge United by the league table at the November break, not by one game.
What to watch: If United keep conceding in the first minutes, the mid-table verdict holds.
Only one AI: Only ChatGPT: Carrick's contract runs to 2028, so a quick sacking costs more.

Read in full

Most of the ten see the same team: 13th in the league, six points from six games, no win in five and the worst start since 1986-87. They read the 2-0 loss in Madrid as part of a pattern rather than bad luck: goals let in early, red cards and missed chances. MiMo is the mildest and calls it a warning light, not a disaster.

They split on how fast the coach goes. DeepSeek, StepFun and Z.ai say a loss at Leeds on Sunday makes a change likely, and DeepSeek gives Carrick two matches at most. Claude, ChatGPT and Grok expect patience: the club's owners back him for now, and ChatGPT notes his contract runs to 2028. Claude, ChatGPT and Kimi add that defender Lisandro Martínez publicly blamed the club's bosses for weak signings, so the problem reaches beyond the coach.

On money, Claude and ChatGPT point out that the club earned a record £677.6m last season even without European football. One loss barely moves the share price, which rose on match day. Meta AI, Nemotron and DeepSeek link results to the share price more than the data supports.

The six games before the November break (Leeds, Como, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Roma, Aston Villa) are the real test. Fans can watch three simple things: fewer early goals let in, eleven players kept on the pitch, and wins against teams outside the top six. Expect a tense month rather than a quick fix.

They split: DeepSeek gives Carrick two more games; Claude expects him to last to November.
What settles the dispute: The result at Leeds on Sunday, 18 October, will show who is right.

Both sides see a mid-table team; the AIs from China lean harder toward a quick sacking.Only the AIs from one country noticed: AIs from the USA: record income without Europe shows one bad run won't break the club.

What is confirmed and what is not

The AIs' conclusion United are a mid-table team this season, not a title contender
Not known yet Carrick keeps his job at least until the Leeds game
The company says so The club earned a record £677.6m last season without European football

The AIs read 64 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I'm a Manchester United fan. Which signs in the next six games will show whether the team is really improving?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Carrick and his staff could lose their jobs; out-of-work coaches like Eddie Howe could gain.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

Most AIs see United as an ordinary mid-table team now, not a strong side having a bad week.

What does this defeat tell us about where Manchester United really stand this season? What is likely to happen next for the team and its coach, and what should fans expect from the coming weeks (source)?

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

1ClaudeUSA8.5United are a mid-table side; six games likely decide Carrick's future
Right now United are a mid-table team, not last season's third-placed side: winless in five, they sit 13th with six points from six league games, 12 behind leaders Manchester City (espn.com, skysports.com, goal.com, businesswire.com).
The squad looks thin: no striker or left-back arrived this summer, and the hyped midfield rebuild has underwhelmed (skysports.com).
Defender Lisandro Martínez has now publicly blamed the club's bosses for not signing enough players, so the trouble reaches beyond the coach (skysports.com).
Results are money: third place last season lifted broadcast income 19.6% to £206.8m, and with Champions League games back the club expects £740m–£760m of revenue this financial year (businesswire.com).
Changing coaches costs too: last year's £8.2m of one-off charges were mostly for Ruben Amorim's exit and staff cuts (businesswire.com).
Shares closed at $21.08 on Tuesday and dipped to $21.00 in late trading, but they move more on stadium and ownership news than on results, and even rose 3.7% the day after September's Fulham draw (stockanalysis.com, stockanalysis.com, barchart.com, aljazeera.com).
Expect a tense few weeks: the board reportedly backs Carrick for now, but the six games before the November break (Leeds, Como, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Roma, Aston Villa) are seen as decisive, with Eddie Howe and Antonio Conte linked (goal.com, skysports.com).
Betting firms make Leeds slight favourites on Sunday, and United, on three Champions League points, probably need wins at Como and at home to Roma to sit in the top eight after four rounds (foxsports.com, squawka.com, uefa.com).
My read: Carrick more likely than not lasts to mid-November, but the top eight is a long shot, so judge the club by the league table at the November break, not by one night in Madrid.
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 · mode: Max · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick is still Manchester United's men's head coach on 12 November 2026 (no sacking, resignation or interim replacement announced by then) — 68% by Nov 12, 2026
2ChatGPTUSA8.2Manchester United’s problems run deeper than one defeat or one coach
Manchester United currently look like an unstable mid-table team, not a serious European contender. They sit 13th in the Premier League, have won only two of nine competitive matches this season, and are winless in five (reuters.com).
For supporters, the biggest concern is not one controversial red card but repeated defensive mistakes, wasted scoring chances and an inability to protect leads, even against ten-man Tottenham (theguardian.com; reuters.com).
Financially, one defeat is manageable: United generated £677.6 million in revenue during 2025/26 without European football, although the club warns that missing Champions League qualification can significantly reduce future income (sec.gov; sec.gov).
European results also affect prize money, while defender Lisandro Martínez's public criticism of recruitment suggests problems involving club leadership, not just Carrick (uefa.com; reuters.com).
United shares closed at $21.08 on October 13, but the next day's share price is unlikely to be determined by this result alone (stockanalysis.com).
Carrick has a contract through 2028, so I expect the club to give him a short opportunity to recover rather than dismiss him immediately (sec.gov).
Matches against Leeds on October 18, Como on October 21, Bournemouth on October 25, Chelsea on October 31 and Roma on November 3 will be crucial, especially with Leny Yoro normally suspended for the Como game following his red card (manutd.com; uefa.com).
Fans should look for fewer defensive errors, better finishing and consistent points rather than promises of improvement; another poor run would make Carrick's dismissal increasingly plausible, while United's three Champions League points leave their immediate top-eight prospects weak (reuters.com; uefa.com).
Model: GPT-6 · mode: Extra high · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick will still be Manchester United's head coach when the team plays Aston Villa on November 8, 2026. — 62% by Nov 8, 2026
3Z.aiChina7.5United's season isn't unlucky: early goals against and red cards repeat.
This defeat tells fans what they already feared: the problem is a pattern, not bad luck. Conceding in the first minute, losing a defender to a red card, then conceding again — that is how a nervous team plays, not merely a beaten one. With a loss to Brighton, a loss to Manchester City and a draw with Tottenham in recent weeks, United are fighting for a top-four place at best, not for the biggest prizes.
For the club, the cost is not one night in Madrid but what it does to the coach and the books. Michael Carrick is now the favorite subject of every pundit and newspaper, and clubs in this situation usually decide either just before an international break or straight after one more bad result.
Falling out of the Champions League would cost tens of millions in prize money and gate receipts, and for a club listed on the stock market, a season without European football is what really damages sponsorships.
Fans should expect a loud few weeks and judge the team by three simple things: do they stop conceding in the opening minutes, do they keep eleven men on the pitch, and do they beat the teams outside the top six.
Sunday's league game at Leeds has become bigger than a normal fixture — a win buys Carrick time, a defeat makes a change very likely. Keep expectations honest: this squad's realistic target is a top-four race and survival in Europe, not a title.
Model: GLM-5.3 · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick is no longer Manchester United's head coach on or before 2026-11-30 (sacked, resigned or departed by mutual agreement), confirmed by an official club announcement or major outlets (BBC Sport, ESPN, Reuters). — 30% by Nov 30, 2026
4KimiChina7.2United are a mid-table team, and Carrick is on borrowed time
This loss confirms what the table already said: United are not an elite side right now. They are winless in five matches and sit 13th in the Premier League with six points from six games, their worst league start since 1986-87 (gbnews.com).
In the Champions League they were around 6th-7th before this defeat, so a direct last-16 spot is now in doubt (espn.com). For ordinary fans, the pattern matters more than one bad night in Madrid: missed chances, soft goals, and a red card are becoming routine (independent.co.uk).
For the business, the stakes are real money. United's New York shares closed at $21.08 on October 13, up 1.2% that day but down about 32% this year, and poor results threaten the broadcast and prize income that the club's valuation rests on (marketwatch.com).
Reports say the INEOS-led board has decided to keep Carrick for now, but Italian outlets claim Antonio Conte is already being lined up as a possible successor (football365.com). Senior players speaking out about weak recruitment add to the sense of a club under strain (independent.co.uk).
What comes next is a make-or-break run: Leeds away on Sunday, then Como, Bournemouth and Chelsea (gbnews.com). Fans should expect Carrick to get the Leeds game and probably the Como match, but if United fail to win either, a coaching change before mid-November becomes likely.
Bookmakers make United slight underdogs even at Leeds, which tells you how far expectations have fallen (foxsports.com). The realistic hope is a scrappy win at Elland Road to buy the coach time — not a quick fix.
Model: Kimi K3 · mode: High · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick is still Manchester United's head coach on 2026-11-12 — 55% by Nov 12, 2026
5MiMoChina6.6United's poor run is real, but one loss changes little.
For an ordinary fan, this defeat is a warning light, not a disaster. A first-minute goal, a red card and a second goal soon after show a team that starts slowly and loses discipline — and it comes on top of losses to Brighton and Manchester City and a draw with Tottenham, so the pattern predates this game (espn.com).
Still, the league phase is long, and one bad night in Madrid does not decide the season (uefa.com).
For business, United is a listed company, so results feed sentiment more than revenue in the short run (espn.com).
Sponsors, matchday income and player values all matter over a season, not over one match, so a single share-price swing on Wednesday would say little about the club's health (uefa.com). What matters commercially is whether the team keeps failing in the big games.
What to do now: expect noise and expect the coach to be the story every week. The trip to Leeds United on Sunday, October 18 is the real test of where the club stands (espn.com).
If United fail there, the pressure on Michael Carrick will grow sharply; a win would buy him calm until November (uefa.com).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro · search on · new chat likely
Sources
1. espn.com
2. uefa.com
own forecast: Michael Carrick will still be Manchester United head coach on 2026-11-01 — 65% by Nov 1, 2026

6StepFun AI StudioChina6.3This defeat shows United are mid-table strugglers, not contenders
For an ordinary fan, this defeat says Manchester United are simply not a good team right now. They have not won in five games, and their six points from six league games is the club's worst start in 40 years. Conceding after less than a minute, then losing a player and conceding again, shows a side with no confidence and no clear plan.
For the business of the club, the stakes are money and reputation. United's share price and sponsors expect Champions League nights, and missing out on the top places costs the club millions in prize money. Coach Michael Carrick is now the bookmakers' favourite to be the next Premier League manager sacked, with bigger names such as Eddie Howe already linked with the job.
Fans should expect a nervous month, not a quick fix. United travel to Leeds on October 18, then play Como in the Champions League on October 20 and Roma at home on November 3. If they do not beat Leeds, a game they would normally win, expect the club to change the manager rather than wait for the team to turn.
Model: Step 5 Preview · mode: High · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick is no longer Manchester United's head coach (sacked or leaves by mutual agreement) by this date, announced by the club or major outlets — 30% by Nov 12, 2026
7DeepSeekChina6.3United's crisis deepens: Carrick on brink, season slipping away
Manchester United's 2-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid leaves them winless in five games and with just six points from six Premier League matches, their worst start in 40 years, so fans should brace for more disappointment before things improve¹.
The pressure on coach Michael Carrick is now intense, with reports that the club has already begun exploring replacements and bookmakers making him the favorite to be the first Premier League manager sacked this season². For an ordinary supporter, this means the team is unlikely to challenge for major trophies this year and may struggle even to qualify for next season's Champions League.
For the business side, the on-field crisis threatens Manchester United's commercial revenue and share price, which closed at $21.08 on October 13 but could fall further if results don't improve³.
The club's brand value depends on consistent success, and missing out on Champions League knockout stages would cost millions in prize money and sponsorship bonuses⁴. Investors should expect volatility until there is clear evidence of a turnaround, either through a coaching change or a sustained winning run.
In the coming weeks, United face a crucial away match at Leeds on October 18, where bookmakers make Leeds favorites, followed by Champions League ties against Como and Roma⁵.
Fans should expect Carrick to be given at most two more matches to save his job; if results don't improve, a change is likely by late November⁶. The most realistic short-term goal is to steady the ship and avoid a full-blown crisis, rather than compete for top honors.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick will be sacked as Manchester United manager by 2026-11-30. — 45% by Nov 30, 2026
8Meta AIUSA6.1United in free fall as Madrid loss exposes deep crisis
This is not a blip. United have collected only six points from their opening six Premier League matches, their worst start to a league campaign since 1986-87, and they are now five games without a victory. The 2-0 defeat at Riyadh Air Metropolitano fits that pattern of soft defending and lost control, after an early goal and a red card.
For the business, the picture is tight. According to a report, United have no immediate plans to sack manager Michael Carrick and owners INEOS are prepared to give him more time, but talk of contingency plans is growing and each loss cuts Champions League money and brand value. A team with just one league win and no clean sheets away in Europe is hard to sell as elite.
Fans should expect a bumpy next two weeks, not a quick fix. Leeds United will face Manchester United in the Premier League on Sunday, October 18 at Elland Road, a hostile derby that can make boos louder. Carrick says the team must be more streetwise and give fans something, so until results turn, pressure will stay on him.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick will no longer be Manchester United head coach — 35% by Oct 30, 2026
9GrokUSA6.1United look a mid-table side stuck in a poor run
This loss confirms Manchester United are currently a mid-table club rather than contenders. Fans should expect more frustrating results and limited excitement in the weeks ahead. Ordinary supporters will see familiar tension around the team until form improves.
The share price closed at $21.08 on the day and rarely shifts much on one match because the business rests on brand deals and commercial income more than results. Still, a long poor spell can slow ticket sales and sponsor interest over time. The club reported record revenue last year even without Europe, but sustained struggles would test that.
Fans should watch the Leeds match on Sunday for any signs of response under pressure. Coach Michael Carrick is likely to remain for now as the owners favour stability after last season's strong finish. Expect a bumpy few weeks of mixed results before any clearer recovery or change.
Model: Grok 4.7 · mode: Expert · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick remains Manchester United head coach — 68% by Nov 1, 2026
10Nemotron + MercuryUSA4.9United's slump deepens as Carrick faces sack talk
Manchester United's 2-0 loss to Atlético Madrid extends a winless run to four games, including defeats to Brighton and Manchester City. The team looks fragile defensively, conceding early goals and struggling to create chances. For fans, this signals a serious decline and mounting pressure on manager Michael Carrick.
The club's share price already reacted negatively to the Champions League defeat, reflecting investor concern over lost revenue from prize money and commercial appeal. Continued poor results could threaten sponsorship deals and matchday income, making a turnaround financially urgent.
Fans should watch the next Premier League game at Leeds on 18 October; a loss there would likely force the board to consider a managerial change before November. The club may also need to strengthen its defence in the January transfer window to salvage the season.
Model: Nemotron 3 Ultra · mode: High · web search by Mercury · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Michael Carrick leaves his role as Manchester United manager — 55% by Nov 1, 2026

Previous trends

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Which AI guesses right more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 8 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 16 were asked, 12 answered — each side shows its 5 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral, DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Kimi, StepFun AI Studio and Claude Opus read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — a tie (China +0.1); DeepSeek (China) — a tie (USA +0.2); ChatGPT (USA) — a tie (USA +0.2); Meta AI (USA) — a tie (China +0.2); Grok (USA) — a tie (China +0.0); Kimi (China) — a tie (USA +0.2); StepFun AI Studio (China) — China ahead by 0.3; Claude Opus (USA) — a tie (USA +0.2).

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	DeepSeek	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Grok	Kimi	StepFun AI Studio	Claude Opus	Score
1	Claude	USA	8.3	8.8	8.8	8.0	8.5	8.3	8.8	8.8	8.5
2	ChatGPT	USA	7.8	8.5	8.5	8.0	8.8	7.5	8.5	8.3	8.2
3	Z.ai	China	7.5	7.8	7.8	7.3	8.0	6.5	7.8	7.3	7.5
4	Kimi	China	7.5	7.0	6.3	6.8	8.3	7.5	7.5	7.0	7.2
5	MiMo	China	6.5	7.0	7.3	6.5	7.5	5.8	7.0	5.5	6.6
6	StepFun AI Studio	China	5.8	6.3	6.3	6.0	7.8	6.3	6.5	5.8	6.3
7	DeepSeek	China	6.3	7.3	6.0	6.0	7.5	5.5	6.5	5.0	6.3
8	Meta AI	USA	6.0	7.0	6.3	5.8	—	6.5	6.3	5.3	6.1
9	Grok	USA	6.3	6.8	6.3	5.0	7.5	5.5	5.8	5.8	6.1
10	Nemotron + Mercury	USA	4.8	5.5	5.0	4.5	6.3	5.0	4.3	3.8	4.9

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its own app, in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, in a new chat, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Mode	Plan	How sure
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	exact
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	exact
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	likely
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	likely
Nemotron + Mercury	Nemotron 3 Ultra	High	free, no sign-in	exact
Mercury web search for Nemotron + Mercury	Mercury 2.5	High	free	not disclosed
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	likely
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max	free	likely
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	membership	exact
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink	free	likely
StepFun AI Studio	Step 5 Preview	High	free	likely
Mistral judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	free	not disclosed
Claude Opus judge	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	exact

Exact: the app showed the model for this answer. Likely: the app shows only the mode, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: the app does not say which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 12, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Manchester United be among the top 8 teams in the Champions League league-phase table after all fourth-round matches of the league phase have been played, checked on the official UEFA standings page (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/standings/) on 2026-11-12?

The result comes on Nov 12, 2026, 30 days after this issue. Counts: United's place in the table after the fourth round is 1st to 8th. Does not count: a place of 9th or lower, or a fourth round not yet finished by 2026-11-12 (then the latest table on that date decides). Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

Poly USA-5 · 21%
Grok38%
Nemotron + Mercury30%
Meta AI22%
ChatGPT11%
Claude8%
Poly China-5 · 27%
Kimi32%
MiMo30%
Z.ai25%
DeepSeek25%
StepFun AI Studio20%

the line: Poly World-10 · 24%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

Poly USA-521%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
Poly China-527%MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, StepFun AI Studioall 5 answered
Poly World-1024%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Nemotron + Mercury, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, StepFun AI Studioall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	By	Chance
Claude	Michael Carrick is still Manchester United's men's head coach on 12 November 2026 (no sacking, resignation or interim replacement announced by then)	Nov 12, 2026	68%
ChatGPT	Michael Carrick will still be Manchester United's head coach when the team plays Aston Villa on November 8, 2026.	Nov 8, 2026	62%
Meta AI	Michael Carrick will no longer be Manchester United head coach	Oct 30, 2026	35%
Grok	Michael Carrick remains Manchester United head coach	Nov 1, 2026	68%
Nemotron + Mercury	Michael Carrick leaves his role as Manchester United manager	Nov 1, 2026	55%
MiMo	Michael Carrick will still be Manchester United head coach on 2026-11-01	Nov 1, 2026	65%
Z.ai	Michael Carrick is no longer Manchester United's head coach on or before 2026-11-30 (sacked, resigned or departed by mutual agreement), confirmed by an official club announcement or major outlets (BBC Sport, ESPN, Reuters).	Nov 30, 2026	30%
Kimi	Michael Carrick is still Manchester United's head coach on 2026-11-12	Nov 12, 2026	55%
DeepSeek	Michael Carrick will be sacked as Manchester United manager by 2026-11-30.	Nov 30, 2026	45%
StepFun AI Studio	Michael Carrick is no longer Manchester United's head coach (sacked or leaves by mutual agreement) by this date, announced by the club or major outlets	Nov 12, 2026	30%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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