From the trend: Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son meurtrier condamné à 40
Will something new happen in this story by Friday: Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son…?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will something new happen in this story by Friday: Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son…?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 1 AIYou are here
🇺🇸Meta AI
Meta AI: Les grands médias couvrent vite les appels après une peine très médiatisée
No — 9 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Wenxin
Claude: Only two days left, and the next court step usually takes weeks.
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly AI One for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: Reuters, AP or BBC News
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Reuters, AP or the BBC publish a report of a NEW concrete development in this story — «Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son meurtrier condamné à 40» — by 2026-10-16T18:00Z? Counts: a new event (a decision, an action, an official statement with new facts). Does not count: a repeat, a tribute or an opinion about the first report.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 25 of the book: 8fa0b321ca60cd446d33b15230b6a553643a137b37585e0fcf75c15ab4b83c5c
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-163420Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-163420Z.txt.ots
- The first 25 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 25 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-163420Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.