Trend of the day · Useful & safetyUseful & safety · Oct 14, 2026
Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son meurtrier condamné à 40
Nine of ten AIs say his own boasting convicted him: talking about a crime can work as a confession.
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will something new happen in this story by Friday: Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son…?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 1 AIYou are here
🇺🇸Meta AI
Meta AI: Les grands médias couvrent vite les appels après une peine très médiatisée
No — 9 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Wenxin
Claude: Only two days left, and the next court step usually takes weeks.
We’ll know the answer
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The result of the last question
Will the Chinese electric carmaker BYD's share price rise on Wednesday?
Result: «No»
3 of 8 AIs’ forecasts came true:
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT
Checked on: finance.yahoo.com
- They agree
- Nearly all: the appeal is the only fight left; he will likely die in prison.
- They split
- DeepSeek and Claude: the appeal is the real fight; Gemini, Wenxin: case closed.
- Not obvious
- The appeal hinges on a 2008 promise that his police words would stay unused.
- What to do
- Ask a lawyer to check any paid crime story before you publish it.
- What to watch
- If Davis's lawyer files a notice of appeal within 30 days, the conclusion holds.
Read in full
Nine of the ten AIs agree on the main lesson. Duane Davis was convicted mostly on his own words, his 2019 memoir and his interviews, not on a gun or DNA. Most add that at 63, with a 40-year minimum before parole, he will almost certainly die in prison.
They split on whether the case is over. Gemini and Wenxin treat it as closed. DeepSeek and Claude stress that the appeal is the live fight. DeepSeek and Claude name its likely center: a 2008 police interview that Davis gave under a promise it would not be used against him. Claude adds that prosecutors argued his later public retelling cancelled that promise.
On money, the AIs mostly expect a short bump in Tupac listening and true-crime films and podcasts, not a lasting change. Only Claude points to a real business risk. A documentary director testified in court that he paid Davis, so tapes, payments and staff of anyone who buys crime stories can be pulled into a trial.
What follows is slow. The written judgment comes within about two weeks, then Davis has about 30 days to file his appeal. A ruling is unlikely before late 2027, and odds are low because the trial judge already rejected his main points. Prosecutors say the other men in the car are dead and there is no evidence to charge anyone else, so treat new rumors with care.
For most people nothing is required. If you follow the case, read court records and established news, not social media. If you publish or pay for true-crime material, have a lawyer read it first.
They split: DeepSeek and Claude: the appeal is the real fight; Gemini, Wenxin: case closed.
What settles the dispute: The Nevada Supreme Court's view of the 2008 deal will show who is right.
No clear split: AIs from the USA and China reached the same view on every main point.
What is confirmed and what is not
- The AIs' conclusion His own memoir and interviews were the core evidence at trial.
- The AIs' conclusion He will almost certainly die in prison.
- Not known yet The appeal will not be decided before late 2027.
The AIs read 37 sources
Ask any AI yourself
I publish true-crime stories. What legal risks do I face if I pay someone to describe a crime they took part in?
Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI
Who wins, who loses: Lawyers and fans gain; publishers who pay crime storytellers face new legal risk.
What does this news mean, what is likely to happen next, and what should people do now (source)?
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1ClaudeUSA8.1Tupac's killer will likely die in prison; only an appeal remains
In practice this is a life sentence: Davis, 63, cannot ask for parole (early release) until he is about 100, and the prosecutor says he will die behind bars (prisonguide.co.uk; spectrumlocalnews.com).
The other three men in the car are dead and prosecutors say they lack evidence to charge anyone else, so his promised appeal (asking a higher court to undo the verdict) is the last open fight in the criminal case (spectrumlocalnews.com).
The lesson for everyone: he was convicted mostly on his own memoir and interviews, so bragging about a crime, even for cash, can work as a confession (monitor.co.ug; nbcbayarea.com).
For business, the money effect is small; the real impact is on true-crime media. A BET documentary director testified he paid Davis, the judge let the memoir in as evidence because Davis promoted it as the true story, and prosecutors argued that retelling it in public cancelled an old deal that kept his police statements from being used against him (au.rollingstone.com; ellington.newstribune.com).
So publishers, filmmakers and podcasters who pay people to describe crimes should have a lawyer check that material, because their tapes, payments and staff can be pulled into court.
If you follow the case, expect a short notice of appeal within about 30 days of the written judgment, which is due within 14 days of sentencing, and the main written argument roughly four months later, so a ruling likely will not come before late 2027 (state-rules.com; au.rollingstone.com).
Do not expect a quick win: his lawyer's key points, the use of a 2008 police interview and the long delay before charges, were already rejected by the trial judge before trial (au.rollingstone.com; wate.com; mynorthwest.com).
Treat new claims about Sean Combs with care: Tupac's family says this is not the end of the story and hired lawyer Alex Spiro to probe any link, but Combs denies any role and has not been charged over the killing (blavity.com; foxnews.com; spectrumlocalnews.com).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Sources- spectrumlocalnews.com
- prisonguide.co.uk
- cbsnews.com
- variety.com
- monitor.co.ug
- nbcbayarea.com
- au.rollingstone.com
- ellington.newstribune.com
- state-rules.com
- au.rollingstone.com
- wate.com
- mynorthwest.com
Its own forecast: Duane 'Keffe D' Davis's lawyers file a notice of appeal (the court form that starts his appeal of the Tupac murder conviction) in Clark County District Court, or the Nevada Supreme Court opens his appeal case, on or before 2026-11-13. — 70% chance by Nov 13, 2026
2Z.aiChina7.9Tupac case closes on paper — his own words did it.
For an ordinary person, the sentence gives an official answer after thirty years, but only half of one. The trial was won almost entirely on Davis's own words — his interviews and his 2019 book — not on a gun, DNA or witnesses. The man prosecutors called the shooter died in 1998, so the last part of the story died with him.
What happens next is slow and quiet. The court files its written judgment within about two weeks, then Davis has about thirty days to formally ask a higher court to review the case (nvcourts.gov).
Most such reviews fail, and at 63 years old facing at least 40 years, he will almost certainly die in prison. For music and media companies, expect a wave of documentaries, podcasts and renewed listening to Tupac's songs — and lawyers will now read any paid crime story twice before publishing it.
There is nothing ordinary people need to do. If you follow the case, watch the court record, not the documentaries — the next real event is a filing, not a film. Families waiting on other old killings can take one honest lesson: this case moved because one man talked for years on tape, which almost never happens.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: Duane 'Keffe D' Davis's defense files a notice of appeal or a motion for a new trial in the Clark County District Court (Nevada) by 2026-11-13, as shown in court records or major news reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN). — 60% chance by Nov 13, 2026
3DeepSeekChina7.8Tupac case ends with 40-year sentence, but appeal keeps it alive
For an ordinary person, this closes a 30-year-old mystery with a real punishment. It shows that even very old cases can end in prison time if someone talks too much. But it is not truly over: Davis will not leave prison before age 100 unless an appeal succeeds.
The appeal will likely focus on whether the judge should have allowed the jury to hear things Davis said in 2008 under a promise that his words would not be used against him. That legal question is the whole ballgame now.
For business, the direct effects are tiny. No company is waiting on this verdict. But for media, streaming and music, the Tupac story keeps selling. Expect more documentaries, podcasts and books about the case. The sentencing gives a clear ending to the main narrative, which makes it easier for media companies to package the story as a complete product. The appeal adds a new chapter that can be sold separately.
What should people do now? Most people should do nothing. The sentence is served; the appeal will grind on for years. If you follow the case, watch for the formal notice of appeal, which must be filed within about 30 days of sentencing.
The key thing to track is whether the Nevada Supreme Court agrees that the 2008 immunity deal was violated. That decision, not the sentence, will determine if Davis ever walks free. For now, the practical reality is that Davis is in prison and will likely die there.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: The Nevada Supreme Court will issue a written ruling on Duane Davis's appeal of his murder conviction — 35% chance by Jun 30, 2027
4KimiChina7.4Tupac's killer will likely die in prison; appeal comes next
For ordinary people, this closes a 30-year mystery: Duane "Keffe D" Davis, 63, must serve at least 40 years before he can even ask for release, so he will almost certainly die behind bars. His own 2019 memoir and interviews were the key evidence against him, which is a plain lesson that public words can have lifelong legal weight.
For business, expect a short wave of interest: streams of Tupac's music and demand for true-crime documentaries and podcasts about the case typically spike after a verdict. The case also shows a real risk for creators — Davis reportedly profited from telling his story, and the judge added 20 years to his sentence partly for that.
What to do now: nothing urgent. His lawyer says he will appeal, arguing prosecutors waited too long to charge him, and appeals take months to years with low odds of success. Prosecutors say they lack evidence to charge anyone else, since the other suspects are dead, so treat new conspiracy claims about the case with caution.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: Davis's lawyers formally file a notice of appeal against his murder conviction in Nevada court — 70% chance by Nov 13, 2026
5ChatGPTUSA7.4Tupac case nears closure, but an appeal could prolong it
For ordinary people, the main lesson is that even decades-old crimes can still bring accountability. The 40-year minimum does not guarantee release, and Davis plans to appeal, meaning the legal fight may continue (apnews.com; reuters.com).
For business, the likely impact is concentrated in music, documentaries and entertainment media, rather than the wider economy. Renewed audience interest is possible, but the clearer lesson for publishers and public figures is that statements made in interviews and books can become courtroom evidence years later, as happened here (apnews.com).
For now, watch for a formal appeal rather than assume the case is completely finished: Nevada generally allows 30 days after the written judgment is entered to file one (nvcourts.gov).
Readers should rely on verified reporting, while media businesses should check their facts and avoid presenting disputed claims as certain, especially because the identity of the person who actually fired the fatal shots remains unresolved (reuters.com).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: Duane Davis or his lawyers formally file a notice of appeal challenging his conviction or sentence in a Nevada court. — 74% chance by Nov 13, 2026
=6GeminiUSA6.8Tupac murder sentence closes a thirty-year case and boosts music sales.
This prison sentence closes the last major courtroom chapter in one of the longest murder investigations in music history (france24.com).
For ordinary people, it proves that bragging about a crime in books and interviews can still lead to prison thirty years later (france24.com).
Because the convicted man is already in his sixties, this forty-year minimum sentence means he will likely spend the rest of his life behind bars (france24.com).
For the entertainment business, a final court decision in a famous murder case boosts music sales and brings new viewers to crime shows. Music companies and television networks holding rights to Tupac Shakur's work can now release updated documentaries with a finished ending (france24.com).
At the same time, book publishers and film studios will face tougher questions when paying former gang members to tell stories about real crimes (france24.com).
People following the news should watch for Duane Davis's lawyers to ask a higher court to review the sentence within the next month. Readers should ignore online rumors about more arrests, because Davis was the only person still alive from the car used in the shooting (france24.com).
Writers and creators covering the story should rely on official Las Vegas court records rather than social media claims (france24.com).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: At least one Tupac Shakur album re-enters or appears on the weekly United States Billboard 200 album chart. — 45% chance by Nov 13, 2026
=6MiMoChina6.8Tupac case closes after thirty years, but the appeal is just starting
For an ordinary person, this shows a court can hold someone to account even thirty years later, and that what people write and say publicly can come back as evidence: Duane "Keffe D" Davis's own 2019 memoir became the central proof at his trial, while jurors took only three hours to find him guilty (france24.com).
It also closes one of American music's darkest stories: every other passenger in that car is now dead, and Davis is the last one alive to answer for it (same source).
For business, this is good news for music and media. Interest in Tupac's albums, films about him and documentaries on the case usually rises after court news, so labels, streaming services, publishers and his family's estate (the legal owner of his work) tend to sell more books and records in the months after a verdict (france24.com).
Lawyers and court reporters expect a long appeal process, since Davis's lawyer Michael Sanft announced in court that he will challenge the decision (same source).
What to do now is simple: nothing is required of you. If you follow the story, rely on court records and established news outlets, not rumours about who fired the shots, because the gunman's identity was never revealed at the trial (france24.com).
And if you are moved by what Tupac's sister Sekyiwa Shakur said in court, the takeaway she offered is reflection rather than revenge (same source).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (from the app's help page) · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: A court filing or official statement publicly names the person who fired the shots that killed Tupac — 25% chance by Dec 31, 2027
8GrokUSA6.4Appeal next after 40-year sentence for Tupac killer
This long-delayed sentence gives fans a sense of closure on one of music’s biggest unsolved mysteries after nearly three decades. It shows that a person’s own public words and a published book can still support a conviction years later. The case is not fully over because the man has said he will challenge the result in a higher court.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="0" />
Music streaming services and record labels may see a short bump in plays of the late rapper’s songs and albums in the next few weeks. True-crime films, podcasts, and books about the killing could also draw more attention and sales. No lasting shift in the wider music business is expected from this single case.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="25" />
Ordinary people do not need to do anything. Fans who want can listen to the music or read solid news reports on the case. Anyone following the story should watch for news that the lawyer has filed papers to appeal the conviction in the coming weeks.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: Duane Davis’s lawyer files a formal notice of appeal with the Nevada court — 68% chance by Nov 12, 2026
9Meta AIUSA6.3Tupac: justice rendue trente ans après son meurtre
Cette condamnation ferme une affaire ouverte depuis le 7 septembre 1996 à Las Vegas, où Tupac Shakur a été tué à 25 ans (en.wikipedia.org).
Duane Davis a été arrêté le 29 septembre 2023 et reste la seule personne inculpée dans ce dossier (en.wikipedia.org). Pour une personne normale, cela veut dire que la justice peut mettre très longtemps mais finir par arriver, et que parler publiquement a des conséquences.
Pour les affaires, les droits de la musique de Tupac, les films et les livres vont être plus vus dans les prochaines semaines.
Le procès s'est appuyé sur les propres paroles de Davis dans son livre de 2019 et des interviews, et aucune arme du crime n'a jamais été retrouvée (cnn.com). Cela rappelle aux maisons de disques et aux médias de vérifier les faits avant de payer pour des histoires de gang.
Maintenant, la juge Carli Kierny a imposé deux peines de 20 ans à la suite, soit 40 ans à perpétuité, avec 731 jours déjà comptés (cnn.com).
Attendez les documents officiels du tribunal de Clark County à Las Vegas avant de croire les rumeurs (france24.com). Si vous suivez l'affaire, lisez les comptes rendus d'audience et respectez la demande de calme de la famille.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: La défense de Duane Davis dépose un avis d'appel officiel contre sa peine de 40 ans — 72% chance by Nov 20, 2026
10WenxinChina6.0Tupac's killer gets 40-year minimum sentence
For ordinary people, this 30-year-old cold case finally closes a long-running pop culture mystery, bringing a sense of delayed justice for Tupac fans worldwide. It also shows that even decades-old serious crimes can still lead to formal legal accountability.
For music and entertainment businesses, this ruling will drive renewed interest in Tupac's catalog, planned documentaries and related cultural projects, creating new commercial opportunities tied to the case's resolution. It also sets a clear precedent for handling high-profile, decades-old celebrity murder cases in the industry.
People can now follow the upcoming appeal process filed by Davis' legal team, and revisit Tupac's classic works to honor his legacy, rather than spreading unconfirmed old conspiracy theories about the case.
Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet
SourcesIts own forecast: Duane Davis' formal notice of appeal against his 40-year sentence will be publicly filed in Las Vegas court — 75% chance by Oct 27, 2026
Duane 'Keefe D' Davis sentenced for Tupac murder, judge tell him the 'world never forgot'
Previous trends
A flag beside a date: whose AIs scored higher that day.
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Whose forecasts come true more often
Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. Too early to judge: 1 of 30 questions checked so far.
| Who | Accuracy | Came true | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | China | 55 | 1 of 1 |
| Claude | USA | 53 | 1 of 1 |
| ChatGPT | USA | 52 | 1 of 1 |
| Gemini | USA | 45 | 0 of 1 |
| Kimi | China | 44 | 0 of 1 |
| Qwen | China | 40 | 0 of 1 |
| Meta AI | USA | 32 | 0 of 1 |
| Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE) | China | 32 | 0 of 1 |
| A coin (always 50%) | 50 | — | |
| Team USA (average) | USA | 45 | 0 of 1 |
| All AIs together (the middle answer) | 44 | 0 of 1 | |
| Team China (average) | China | 43 | 0 of 1 |
How it works
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 9 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 13 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →
Mistral, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Wenxin read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
- Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
- Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
- Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges.
- Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
- A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
- The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
- How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
- Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: Mistral — a tie (China ahead by only 0.2); ChatGPT (USA) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.3); Meta AI (USA) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.2); Grok (USA) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.0); Gemini (USA) — China ahead by 0.4; Z.ai (China) — China ahead by 0.4; Kimi (China) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.3); DeepSeek (China) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.1); Wenxin (China) — China ahead by 0.7.
Who scored highest
| # | AI | Side | Mistral | ChatGPT | Meta AI | Grok | Gemini | Z.ai | Kimi | DeepSeek | Wenxin | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claude | USA | 8.0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 7.8 | — | 8.1 |
| 2 | Z.ai | China | 7.8 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 |
| 3 | DeepSeek | China | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 7.8 |
| 4 | Kimi | China | 7.5 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| 5 | ChatGPT | USA | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.4 |
| =6 | Gemini | USA | 6.3 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 |
| =6 | MiMo | China | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| 8 | Grok | USA | 6.3 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 6.4 |
| 9 | Meta AI | USA | 6.8 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| 10 | Wenxin | China | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 |
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
| AI | Model | Thinking mode | Plan | How we know the model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | Claude Opus 5.5 | Max | Max | the app showed it |
| ChatGPT | GPT-6 | Extra high | Pro | the app showed it |
| Meta AI | Muse Spark 1.3 | Thinking | free | from the app's help page |
| Grok | Grok 4.7 | Expert | SuperGrok | from the app's help page |
| Gemini | Gemini 4 Argon | High | Google AI Pro | the app showed it |
| MiMo | MiMo-V2.6-Pro | free | from the app's help page | |
| Z.ai | GLM-5.3 | Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) | free | from the app's help page |
| Kimi | Kimi K3 | High | Pro ($39, vadimchernets9@) | the app showed it |
| DeepSeek | DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | DeepThink (thinks before answering) | free | from the app's help page |
| Wenxin | ERNIE | Fast | free, no sign-in | the app doesn't say |
| Mistral · AI judge | Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5 | Think | Pro | the app doesn't say |
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will this story see a new development?
The exact question every AI answered: Will a major news outlet (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg or the Financial Times) report a new concrete development of this story — «Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son meurtrier condamné à 40» — by 2026-11-13?
The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: a published report of a new event in this story. Does not count: a repeat or a comment on the first report. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
- All ten AIs together · 54%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
- Five AIs from the USA55%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
- Five AIs from China52%MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
- All ten AIs54%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
| AI | Forecast | Checked on | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | Duane 'Keffe D' Davis's lawyers file a notice of appeal (the court form that starts his appeal of the Tupac murder conviction) in Clark County District Court, or the Nevada Supreme Court opens his appeal case, on or before 2026-11-13. | Nov 13, 2026 | 70% |
| ChatGPT | Duane Davis or his lawyers formally file a notice of appeal challenging his conviction or sentence in a Nevada court. | Nov 13, 2026 | 74% |
| Meta AI | La défense de Duane Davis dépose un avis d'appel officiel contre sa peine de 40 ans | Nov 20, 2026 | 72% |
| Grok | Duane Davis’s lawyer files a formal notice of appeal with the Nevada court | Nov 12, 2026 | 68% |
| Gemini | At least one Tupac Shakur album re-enters or appears on the weekly United States Billboard 200 album chart. | Nov 13, 2026 | 45% |
| MiMo | A court filing or official statement publicly names the person who fired the shots that killed Tupac | Dec 31, 2027 | 25% |
| Z.ai | Duane 'Keffe D' Davis's defense files a notice of appeal or a motion for a new trial in the Clark County District Court (Nevada) by 2026-11-13, as shown in court records or major news reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN). | Nov 13, 2026 | 60% |
| Kimi | Davis's lawyers formally file a notice of appeal against his murder conviction in Nevada court | Nov 13, 2026 | 70% |
| DeepSeek | The Nevada Supreme Court will issue a written ruling on Duane Davis's appeal of his murder conviction | Jun 30, 2027 | 35% |
| Wenxin | Duane Davis' formal notice of appeal against his 40-year sentence will be publicly filed in Las Vegas court | Oct 27, 2026 | 75% |
Each own forecast is checked on its own date.
Trending today · the 10 stories we looked at
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