From the trend: Los Angeles mayor candidates face off weeks before the vote
Will bettors still give Raman at least 60 in 100 on Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will bettors still give Raman at least 60 in 100 on Friday?
At the time of the question: 62%
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Meta AI🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Z.ai
DeepSeek: Raman is already near 60% on prediction markets after her poll lead.
No — 5 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Claude
Qwen: Challengers rarely reach such high odds early in a tight runoff race.
We check it on: polymarket.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: polymarket.com
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the Polymarket betting market show Nithya Raman at 60% or more to win the Los Angeles mayor race at 20:00 UTC on Friday, October 16, 2026?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 47 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 30 of the book: 399962794a750a66b6c0be8bee5fb56305c6e76f32f37b8d3c45656683bc1eda
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-203446Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-203446Z.txt.ots
- The first 30 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 30 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-203446Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.