Oct 14, 2026New trend every hour

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Los Angeles mayor candidates face off weeks before the vote

Judge Los Angeles' mayor race by tents, police and fire results, not debate claims; a third haven't chosen.

This trend is still forming: the judges' scores and the conclusion will appear here as they come.

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will bettors still give Raman at least 60 in 100 on Friday?

Now: 62%

We’ll know the answer on Friday

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will the Chinese electric carmaker BYD's share price rise on Wednesday?

Result: «No»

3 of 8 AIs’ forecasts came true:

DeepSeekClaudeChatGPT

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

Whose forecasts come true more often →

They agree: 8 of 10 say judge street results, not debate performance.
They split: Bass claims 11% fewer homeless, Raman 49%; official count says 2.3%.
Not obvious: Raman's 49% and the citywide 2.3% measure different things; both hold.
What to watch: If the Oct. 15–16 wind warning exposes fire-response gaps, the case for change grows.
Only one AI: Only Claude: older voters back Bass 41–21, under-30s Raman 66–4.

Read in full

Eight of the ten answers are about this race, and they land in the same place. The debate changed little, so voters should test each candidate on what shows up on their own block: tents, police response, fire readiness, building permits and jobs. Two answers did not help: Z.ai wrote about a horror TV show, and Nemotron + Mercury gave only generic advice.

The homelessness numbers are where the answers press hardest. Claude, Kimi and DeepSeek all say Bass's claim of 11% fewer homeless people does not match the official count: it fell 2.3% from 2023 to 2026 and rose 3.4% this year.

Raman's drop of about 49% in unsheltered people is real, but it covers only her own council district. Inside Safe, Bass's $300 million program, housed over 6,000 people, but ChatGPT and Qwen note that about 42% of those served had returned to homelessness.

They split on the police chief and on what matters most in the final weeks. Raman wants Chief Jim McDonnell replaced but gave no date; Bass says a change 640 days before the 2028 Olympics would throw the police into disarray.

Claude and Meta AI follow the outside money, which includes Airbnb and the police union for Bass and a carpenters' union for Raman. Kimi and DeepSeek focus on records per dollar and on turnout. The film fight is also split: Bass stresses lower fees and permits, while Raman offers unlimited tax credits.

The race is still open. The Berkeley poll with the Los Angeles Times had Raman at 39%, Bass at 28% and 33% undecided, and betting sites give Raman about 55%. Measure FD is on the same ballot, a half-cent sales tax rise to 10.75% worth about $345 million a year for firefighters. The Red Flag wind warning on Oct. 15–16 is the first real test of fire readiness.

They split: Bass claims 11% fewer homeless, Raman 49%; official count says 2.3%.
What settles the dispute: Late-October polls will show whether the undecided third moved.

No clear split: AIs from the USA and China use the same fact-checks, polls and deadlines.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source Official count: homelessness fell 2.3% from 2023 to 2026, rose 3.4% this year.
Confirmed by a source Measure FD would raise the sales tax to 10.75%, about $345 million a year.
The AIs' conclusion Undecided voters, not debate performance, will decide the race.

The AIs read 54 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I live in Los Angeles. Compare Bass and Raman on homelessness, police, fire and permits, and show me how to check each claim.

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Renters, builders and film workers gain or lose on permits, fees and tax credits.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

Judge Los Angeles' mayor race by tents, police and fire results, not debate claims; a third haven't chosen.

What should a Los Angeles resident check and weigh before voting in this race? Which questions from the debate matter most for daily life in the city, and what could change in the weeks before November 3 (source)?

In plain words: Los Angeles Times — a large California newspaper; Associated Press — a major US news agency that calls election results; Kalshi — a US website where people bet on events; Polymarket — a website where people bet on events; runoff — a second vote between the top two candidates; UTC — world standard time

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

1ClaudeUSA8.3Bass touted 11% fewer homeless; the official count shows only 2.3%
Bottom line: the debate changed little, so judge both candidates on tents, police and fire, and check their numbers.
Bass's claim of 11% fewer homeless people does not match the official count, which fell only 2.3% from 2023 to 2026 and rose 3.4% this year (nbclosangeles.com).
Raman voted more than 60 times against no-camping zones but now says she would keep the ban on tents near schools and parks, and she wants a new police chief without giving a date, while Bass says a switch 640 days before the Olympics would throw the police into disarray (dnyuz.com; nbclosangeles.com; laist.com).
For business, follow the money: by August, money backing Bass, counting outside groups, outran Raman's about 3 to 1, including $750,000 from Airbnb and $1.2 million in police-union ads against Raman and another rival (laist.com).
Raman wants to rewrite the 'mansion tax' on big property sales, which she says choked apartment building, and to fully staff the city film office, while Bass points to her film chief and lower local fees (dnyuz.com; kdhnews.com).
Rebuilding is the sore spot, with 1,317 Palisades permits issued but only 50 homes finished, and Measure FD on the same ballot would lift the city sales tax to 10.75%, about $345 million a year for the fire department (nbclosangeles.com; laist.com).
Register by Oct. 19, vote early at a vote center from Oct. 24, or mail your ballot at least a week ahead; it must be postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 10 (lacounty.gov; patch.com).
Until then, watch the Red Flag fire-weather warning on Oct. 15–16, the first real test of fire readiness, and any new poll, since the last big one had Raman 39%, Bass 28% and a third undecided; columnists scored the debate for Bass, yet on the betting site Kalshi Raman still rose from 55% to 57% (lacounty.gov; ktla.com; thehill.com; yahoo.com; news.kalshi.com).
On election night, stay calm: voters 65 and older favor Bass 41–21 and those under 30 back Raman 66–4, so whose ballots get counted first can tilt the early numbers (thehill.com; ktla.com).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Los Angeles city Measure FD (a half-cent sales tax for the Fire Department, on the Nov. 3 ballot) will show more Yes than No votes in the latest LA County Registrar results posted as of Nov. 13, 2026 — 60% chance by Nov 13, 2026
2ChatGPTUSA7.7Over 6,000 sheltered; 42% of participants returned to homelessness
Judge this race by results on your block, not debate performances. Bass's $300-million Inside Safe program has moved more than 6,000 people into temporary housing, but about 42% of those served had returned to homelessness by July (latimes.com).
Ask who can keep people housed, protect school routes and account for spending; weigh Raman's wish to replace Police Chief Jim McDonnell against Bass's case for keeping him ahead of the 2028 Olympics, and examine their fire-response plans as dangerous winds approach on October 15 (laist.com; lacounty.gov).
For businesses, workers and renters, the biggest questions concern housing construction, building approvals, neighborhood safety and keeping jobs in Los Angeles. Bass highlighted faster filming permits and lower fees, Raman proposed unlimited film-production tax credits, and both discussed changing a tax on expensive property sales that developers say discourages apartment construction (latimes.com).
With 13 of 15 councilmembers endorsing Bass, voters should ask what she can accomplish with those relationships and how Raman would persuade the council to support her reforms (latimes.com).
What happens next could matter more than the debate: a September poll put Raman at 39%, Bass at 28% and undecided voters at 33%, while October 14 betting prices gave Raman approximately 54% on Polymarket and 55% on Kalshi (latimes.com; polymarket.com; kalshi.com).
New surveys, endorsements, early voting and the city's response to fire danger could still shift opinions, so compare specific promises, independent fact-checks and evidence of delivery.
Check your voter registration by October 19; conditional registration remains available afterward, and mailed ballots must be postmarked no later than November 3 (sos.ca.gov).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: At least one poll of likely Los Angeles mayoral voters published between October 15 and October 31, 2026, will show Karen Bass and Nithya Raman separated by five percentage points or fewer. — 58% chance by Oct 31, 2026
3KimiChina7.7Raman leads 39–28, yet one in three voters still hasn’t chosen
Vote like you are hiring a city manager: ignore the insults and score three tests—results per dollar, control of police and fire, and proof each can run City Hall. The sharpest fight is homelessness: LAHSA counted 46,260 homeless people in 2023 and 45,194 in 2026, a 2.3% citywide drop, while 2026 rose 3.4% and unsheltered rose 7.9% (nbclosangeles.com).
For daily life, ask who can move tents without just moving the problem: Bass cites Inside Safe, which has cost more than $300 million and is projected at $131.9 million this budget year, while Raman points to CD4 unsheltered falling 181 to 93, about 49% (nbclosangeles.com).
Ask police and fire specifics: Raman wants Chief Jim McDonnell replaced but gave no pre-2028 timeline; Bass says changing chiefs 640 days before the Olympics would send LAPD into disarray, and both split over license-plate cameras and ICE data risk (laist.com).
Business and renters should weigh rent caps, housing approvals, film jobs and street conditions, not slogans; the race is still movable because early voting is underway to Nov. 3 and Berkeley IGS/L.A.
Times found Raman 39%, Bass 28%, 33% undecided (abc7.com; thehill.com). Before voting, compare each plan’s audit trail, emergency chain of command, Olympics readiness and answer to one question: what exactly changes on my block in 12 months.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: A new public likely-voter poll will show Karen Bass within 6 points of Nithya Raman. — 50% chance by Oct 25, 2026
4Meta AIUSA7.539% to 28% lead, but 33% still undecided decides everything
If you live in LA, this runoff is less about left versus right and more about who can make City Hall answer the phone. The Oct. 13 hour-long debate on NBC4 and Telemundo 52 kept circling back to daily worries: homelessness, building more homes, whether Police Chief Jim McDonnell should stay after claims the LAPD worked with federal immigration agents during ICE raids, and how the city handled the Palisades fire in January 2025 and the recent Boyle Heights cold-storage blaze.
Raman called it a crisis of trust and said Bass was missing in action, Bass said Raman is not ready and shifts positions by the day.
For shops, studios and builders, the stakes are jobs and permits. Bass warned that firing McDonnell before the 2028 Olympics would throw the LAPD into disarray, Raman said she would replace him but needs the Police Commission and council, and both sparred over Hollywood jobs and housing construction.
The money around them is bigger than their own $2.5 million each: the Police Protective League put at least $3.5 million behind Bass and the County Federation of Labor is also backing her, while the Western States Council of Carpenters put $9 million behind Raman, two-thirds from Reno hedge-fund manager Aaron Sosnick.
What to watch before Nov. 3: mail ballots went out Oct. 1 and vote centers open Oct. 24, so many will vote early. The Berkeley IGS poll co-sponsored by the Times had Raman at 39% and Bass at 28% with 33% undecided, from 2,150 likely voters Sept. 15-20, and among Spencer Pratt's June voters 63% are still undecided with Bass ahead 22% to 16% in that slice.
Check your block-level issues — response time for services, where homeless camps can be near schools, and who would pick a recovery czar for Pacific Palisades and a chief financial officer — because those are what undecided voters will decide.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: LA Ethics Commission filings show total independent spending in the mayoral runoff exceeds $15 million combined — 70% chance by Oct 30, 2026
5DeepSeekChina7.4Raman leads Bass by 11 points, but 1 in 3 voters still undecided
For an ordinary Los Angeles resident, the debate made clear that the race is a referendum on Mayor Bass's record, especially on homelessness and public safety. Bass claimed an 11% reduction in homelessness, but city data show only a 2.3% drop since 2023, and the count actually rose 3.4% this year.
Raman says she cut unsheltered homelessness nearly 50% in her district, but citywide numbers are worse. The biggest question for daily life is who can actually reduce encampments and keep streets safe—and whether replacing the police chief, as Raman wants, would help or hurt.
For businesses, the debate highlighted the mansion tax and the city's response to crises. Raman said the tax needs reform because it hurts apartment building sales; Bass said anything that blocks housing should be examined.
The candidates also split on surveillance cameras: Raman wants proof they work and won't share data with immigration agents, while Bass opposes renewing the Flock contract but supports license plate readers. For small business owners, the key question is whether either candidate can make the city run better on basics like permits and emergency response.
The most important thing to do now is to check your mail-in ballot and look at the candidates' records, not just their debate lines.
Polls show Raman ahead by 11 points, but a third of voters are still undecided, and the race could shift if Bass goes negative or if turnout among Latino voters, where Raman leads 45% to 21%, is lower than expected. Watch for new polls after the debate and any news about the police chief or the Palisades fire response before you vote.
For a forecast, I predict that at least one major public poll released between October 15 and October 31, 2026, will show Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass by 8 percentage points or more among likely voters. Probability: 65%.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: At least one major public poll released between October 15 and October 31, 2026, will show Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass by 8 percentage points or more among likely voters. — 65% chance by Oct 31, 2026

6GrokUSA6.5Raman said she blacked out the debate yet still leads betting odds
Los Angeles residents should treat this as a close race where the challenger holds a lead but a large undecided group can still tip daily life issues such as street tents, police response times, and film jobs.
Check your registration status before the October 19 deadline and review the mail ballot that began going out on October 5, then weigh each candidate’s record on removing encampments near schools and the mixed results of expensive homeless programs.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="5" />
Business owners and workers in Hollywood or retail should focus on plans for film tax credits and rules that affect storefront openings or building. Both candidates back more tax credits to keep jobs local, but differences on development taxes and city spending could change permit speed and costs over the next four years.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="10" />
Verify registration now at the state site, read fact-checks of debate claims on homelessness numbers and police leadership, and watch for new polls before November 3. The post-debate remark that one candidate did not remember much of the event could appear in ads, and any fresh fire or crime news could move the remaining undecided voters.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="9" />
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: A new independent citywide poll of likely Los Angeles voters shows Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass by at least 5 points — 55% chance by Nov 1, 2026
7WenxinChina6.2Raman’s district homelessness down 49% citywide up 3.4%
Ordinary residents should weigh the two candidates’ concrete records on homelessness spending, public safety stances, and wildfire recovery progress before casting their ballot.
The debate’s most daily-life relevant questions cover the $300 million Inside Safe program’s lack of public audit, the 3.4% citywide homeless rise, and plans for 2028 Olympics public safety staffing.For local small businesses, the key tradeoffs are between Bass’s proposed film czar to cut permit red tape and Raman’s uncapped film tax credits, plus their differing approaches to street cleanliness and pothole repairs that directly hit foot traffic.
Voters can expect sharp last-minute ad blitzes targeting undecided voters, and final public safety and wildfire preparedness policy releases from both sides in the coming weeks.Residents can confirm their voter registration status, request a mail ballot, and check their polling location now to avoid last-minute issues. They can also review the independent fact checks of the candidates’ debate claims to separate verified facts from campaign spin before making their final choice.
Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Karen Bass will release a new wildfire emergency preparedness action plan with 10 new water dip sites by October 27, 2026 — 65% chance by Oct 27, 2026
8QwenChina5.9Inside Safe housed 6,000 people, but 42% returned to the streets.
The debate showed both candidates want a half-cent sales tax increase to pay for firefighters¹. You will likely pay more for everyday goods if this tax passes¹. At the same time, police shootings jumped 70 percent this year, making neighborhood safety a major worry¹.
Film jobs are leaving Los Angeles, and the candidates offered different fixes to keep studios local¹. Bass wants to lower filming fees, while Raman promises unlimited tax credits for productions¹. A new mayor will also decide if the city spends millions on hotel rooms for the homeless¹.
One-third of voters remain undecided just weeks before the November 3 election¹. Watch how each candidate plans to handle the 2028 Olympics and pick the leader you trust². Check the exact cost of the proposed fire tax on your receipts before you vote¹.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Measure FD will pass with over 50 percent of the vote in the November election. — 65% chance by Nov 13, 2026
9Nemotron + MercuryUSA4.1Что выбрать: стабильность или перемены в Лос-Анджелесе?
Для жителей важно понять планы по полиции и бездомности, так как это влияет на безопасность и цены. Бизнесу стоит следить за позициями по налогам и регуляциям, что определит стабильность в ближайшие годы.
Проверьте регистрацию до 3 ноября и оцените дебаты: впереди важные вопросы о пожарной безопасности и бюджете. Прямая критика в дебатах показывает, что политика может измениться, и каждый голос решает многое.
Model: Mercury 2.5 (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): High · Nemotron 3 Ultra did not answer — Mercury wrote it alone · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Раман наберет более 50% голосов в опросе NBC до 20 ноября 2026 года — 60% chance by Nov 20, 2026
10Z.aiChina3.1Old slashers get prestige TV; the killer's mother becomes the story.
The direction is clear: instead of remaking the monster, TV now rewinds and humanizes the family behind him. Bates Motel did exactly this for Psycho — five seasons about the mother — and now Crystal Lake does it for Friday the 13th, with Pamela Voorhees as a full drama lead. Critics are mostly on board (79% positive, though Metacritic's 60 means mixed): praise for Linda Cardellini, complaints that it runs long and leans on gore.
For the business, horror remains the safest bet on television: cheap to make, travels well, and sells subscriptions. Dropping all eight episodes two weeks before Halloween is a deliberate play to own the scariest night of the year, and the A24 name gives a 45-year-old slasher brand prestige credibility. A second season will be decided by sign-ups and how many people finish all eight episodes over the next month — not by reviews.
So who should watch? Go in if you enjoy slow-burn drama with occasional shocks, or if you always wondered how the legend started. Skip it if you want constant scares, or if gore is a hard no for you. Horror fans and critics often disagree, so check the viewer score after a few days before giving it a weekend — and expect the renewal news, if it comes, closer to Thanksgiving than to Halloween.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Crystal Lake's audience score (Popcornmeter) on Rotten Tomatoes stands at 60% or higher on 2026-11-10, 2026. — 55% chance by Nov 10, 2026

Previous trends

Whose forecasts come true more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. Too early to judge: 0 of 30 questions checked so far.

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 8 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 12 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Qwen, Z.ai, DeepSeek and Wenxin read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is. When it happens to score its own AI's answer, that mark is shown but not counted.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 0.3; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 0.4; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 0.4; Grok (USA) — USA ahead by 1.3; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 0.4; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 0.8; Wenxin (China) — USA ahead by 0.8.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Grok	Qwen	Z.ai	DeepSeek	Wenxin	Score
1	Claude	USA	8.3	8.5	7.8	8.0	9.3	7.0	8.5	9.3	8.3
2	ChatGPT	USA	7.5	8.8	6.5	8.3	8.5	7.3	8.0	8.0	7.7
3	Kimi	China	7.5	8.5	8.0	7.5	8.8	5.3	7.8	8.8	7.7
4	Meta AI	USA	7.0	8.3	7.3	7.8	8.5	7.3	7.8	6.8	7.5
5	DeepSeek	China	7.0	7.5	6.5	7.3	7.5	8.0	7.5	8.0	7.4
6	Grok	USA	5.5	6.3	5.8	6.5	8.0	5.8	7.3	7.5	6.5
7	Wenxin	China	5.5	5.0	5.5	6.5	7.3	7.0	7.3	6.8	6.2
8	Qwen	China	6.0	6.8	4.3	6.0	6.3	5.8	7.0	5.3	5.9
9	Nemotron + Mercury	USA	3.3	4.0	3.8	4.0	4.0	7.3	3.8	4.3	4.1
10	Z.ai	China	4.0	4.3	3.5	2.5	3.0	7.3	3.3	3.3	3.1

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Thinking mode	Plan	How we know the model
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	the app showed it
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	the app showed it
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	from the app's help page
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	from the app's help page
Nemotron + Mercury	Mercury 2.5	High	free	the app doesn't say
Mercury web search for Nemotron + Mercury	Mercury 2.5	High	free	the app doesn't say
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	the app showed it
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)	free	from the app's help page
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	Pro ($39, vadimchernets9@)	the app showed it
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink (thinks before answering)	free	from the app's help page
Wenxin	ERNIE	Fast	free, no sign-in	the app doesn't say
Mistral · AI judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	Pro	the app doesn't say

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will the Associated Press news agency declare Nithya Raman the winner of the Los Angeles mayor race by November 13, 2026?

The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Only an official call published on apnews.com or the Associated Press election results page counts. A lead in early counts, polls or betting odds does not count, and neither does a call for Karen Bass or no call by that date. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

Five AIs from the USA together · 48%
Meta AI57%
Nemotron + Mercury55%
ChatGPT48%
Grok42%
Claude38%
Five AIs from China together · 46%
DeepSeek65%
Wenxin52%
Kimi45%
Qwen40%
Z.ai35%

All ten AIs together · 47%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

Five AIs from the USA48%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
Five AIs from China46%Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
All ten AIs47%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Nemotron + Mercury, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	Checked on	Chance
Claude	Los Angeles city Measure FD (a half-cent sales tax for the Fire Department, on the Nov. 3 ballot) will show more Yes than No votes in the latest LA County Registrar results posted as of Nov. 13, 2026	Nov 13, 2026	60%
ChatGPT	At least one poll of likely Los Angeles mayoral voters published between October 15 and October 31, 2026, will show Karen Bass and Nithya Raman separated by five percentage points or fewer.	Oct 31, 2026	58%
Meta AI	LA Ethics Commission filings show total independent spending in the mayoral runoff exceeds $15 million combined	Oct 30, 2026	70%
Grok	A new independent citywide poll of likely Los Angeles voters shows Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass by at least 5 points	Nov 1, 2026	55%
Nemotron + Mercury	Раман наберет более 50% голосов в опросе NBC до 20 ноября 2026 года	Nov 20, 2026	60%
Qwen	Measure FD will pass with over 50 percent of the vote in the November election.	Nov 13, 2026	65%
Z.ai	Crystal Lake's audience score (Popcornmeter) on Rotten Tomatoes stands at 60% or higher on 2026-11-10, 2026.	Nov 10, 2026	55%
Kimi	A new public likely-voter poll will show Karen Bass within 6 points of Nithya Raman.	Oct 25, 2026	50%
DeepSeek	At least one major public poll released between October 15 and October 31, 2026, will show Nithya Raman leading Karen Bass by 8 percentage points or more among likely voters.	Oct 31, 2026	65%
Wenxin	Karen Bass will release a new wildfire emergency preparedness action plan with 10 new water dip sites by October 27, 2026	Oct 27, 2026	65%

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